Latest Polls: Electoral Victory Narrowing By The Nano Second For Trump

[Sistine Chapel]

Time is running out for Trumpie. Hilary needs to play it safe and run the clock out in a landslide victory.

[Yssup Rider]

OHIO IS TRENDING HRC. SO IS IOWA.

And In Texas, Drumpf's lead is down to six.

This is going to be an avalanche.

[JD Barleycorn]

Sorry Dizzzy, but your poll is already out of date. Trump is closing the gap nationally and Trump is way ahead in Indiana but your map doesn't show that. Trying to dump some more shit on this thread Dizzzy?

[Pitfall]

Less than an hour old:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

[SpeedRacerXXX]

This election is over unless Trump pulls something out of his hat or Clinton screws up. I think DSK called it correctly a while ago.

From the beginning, it has been pretty much fact that Trump had to turn a handful of blue states to red in order to make up the 63 (126 / 2) needed electoral votes that went to Obama in 2012. The target states were thought to be Michigan (16 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), and Florida (29).

Right now polls, which is all we have to go by other than personal opinion, puts Michigan and Wisconsin long shots for Trump and they seem to be solid blue. Clinton has large leads in a 4-person race in Virginia (+7 to +11), Pennsylvania (+9), and Colorado (+8). Florida (Clinton +5 to +9) and Ohio (Clinton +4) are the only states of the seven where polls have Clinton and Trump fairly close.

However, Clinton leads in N.C. by 9 points and this was a red state in 2012. Several other states that were red in 2012 are getting very close -- Georgia and SC to name 2.

I'd be interested to hear from Trump supporters as to which states are going to go from blue to red in order to add at least 63 to the red column and take away 63 from the blue column.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/

[Sistine Chapel]

we cannot take polls for granted. We need to push push push. I want to see Trumpie thoroughly beaten by a girl

[JD Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by Pitfall

Less than an hour old:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

Didn't Silver predict Bush, or was it Cruz, maybe it was Rubio was going to win the GOP primary?

[bambino]

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

Didn't Silver predict Bush, or was it Cruz, maybe it was Rubio was going to win the GOP primary?

3weeks ago he had Trump winning the election.

[Pitfall]

Silver's models are always "if the election were held today". When Trump was at his strongest, the DNC leaks were still fresh, the R convention had happened while the D convention had not, and Trump hadn't yet gone to war with a Gold Star family.

He also repeatedly says that polls after the conventions are much more predictive than polls before them.

Didn't Silver predict Bush, or was it Cruz, maybe it was Rubio was going to win the GOP primary?

It doesn't work that way. He makes his forecasts state by state. His model correctly predicted >90% of primaries and caucuses this year.

And don't forget that he got 50/50 correct in the 2012 election, which was much closer than this one currently is.

The simple reality is that no one is as good as 538 at predicting election outcomes.

Sorry Trump fans, the prognosis is bleak.

[jma9]

I'm waiting until after the first debate to give a shit about polls...

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by jma9

I'm waiting until after the first debate to give a shit about polls...

Agreed... I'm also waiting for Trump to get a personality transplant.

[CuteOldGuy]

Still 82 days left. You people are suffering from premature jubilation.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

Still 82 days left. You people are suffering from premature jubilation.

As jma9 stated, the debates are yet to come and Trump will not win, but Clinton could lose, and she has to lose big time in order for Trump to close the gap. Trump has put himself in a deep hole and the debates are the only way he can get out. Or something new against Clinton comes out.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by JD Barleycorn

Sorry Dizzzy, but your poll is already out of date. Trump is closing the gap nationally and Trump is way ahead in Indiana but your map doesn't show that. Trying to dump some more shit on this thread Dizzzy?

Youre so full of shit, you're pants are brown, JDrunk!

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...olls.html?_r=0

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

As jma9 stated, the debates are yet to come and Trump will not win, but Clinton could lose, and she has to lose big time in order for Trump to close the gap. Trump has put himself in a deep hole and the debates are the only way he can get out. Or something new against Clinton comes out.

You think Drumpf mugging for the camera is going to pull him out of his current nosedive?

In the Republican debates, he stood back while the others ripped each other. It'll be one on one.

That is, if Hillary doesn't drop dead from the latest rumored illness while on stage with Mr. Tinymitts.