Biden's edge evaporates...

[gfejunkie]

As much as you can trust polls this early in the game (which I don't)...

https://news.yahoo.com/bidens-edge-e...000336671.html

I am a firm believer that you can easily add 10 points for Trump in any given poll because of the unfairness of the lying lamestream media.

As we learned in 2016, polls have a way of making fools of everyone. Even Speedy.

[bambino]

I’ve said it many times. The media and the polls work hand in hand. They try to influence public opinion. Especially in the Trump era. The Democrats and establishment Republicans are on board too.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by bambino

I’ve said it many times. The media and the polls work hand in hand. They try to influence public opinion. Especially in the Trump era. The Democrats and establishment Republicans are on board too.

Yes, they do it for the benefit of the elitist power hungry thieves who get rich off the government, all the while claiming the high moral ground. Cynical and immoral bastards are they.

P.S. Personally, I thought Rocky Bleier was tougher than Franco Harris.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Unfortunately Gfejunkie did what I've warned against forever -- used a single poll to validate his POV. Latest poll out on Trump approval rating? Trump -14 according to Global Strategy Group. Poll published yesterday by Monmounth University -- Biden +9 over Trump. Do not put your faith in a single poll.

So all polls are biased? Yet the overwhelming majority of them turn out to be correct in the end.

To reiterrate, the polls in 2016 were fairly accurate with a few exceptions at the state level. And the polls nailed the 2018 midterms.

One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right

https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...ot-a-lot-right

An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S.

National polls were generally correct and accurate by historical standards. National polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936. Collectively, they indicated that Clinton had about a 3 percentage point lead, and they were basically correct; she ultimately won the popular vote by 2 percentage points. Furthermore, the strong performance of national polls did not, as some have suggested, result from two large errors canceling (under-estimation of Trump support in heavily working class white states and over-estimation of his support in liberal-leaning states with sizable Hispanic populations).

State-level polls showed a competitive, uncertain contest… In the contest that actually mattered, the Electoral College, state-level polls showed a competitive race in which Clinton appeared to have a slim advantage. Eight states with more than a third of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency had polls showing a lead of three points or less (Trende 2016).[2] As Sean Trende noted, “The final RealClearPolitics Poll Averages in the battleground states had Clinton leading by the slimmest of margins in the Electoral College, 272-266.” The polls on average indicated that Trump was one state away from winning the election.

…but clearly under-estimated Trump’s support in the Upper Midwest. Polls showed Hillary Clinton leading, if narrowly, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic for president six elections running. Those leads fed predictions that the Democratic Blue Wall would hold. Come Election Day, however, Trump edged out victories in all three.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Reso...n-the-U-S.aspx

I am not telling anyone to trust the polls. I trust polls much more than the biased views of people on this forum. 2 polls in Texas have Biden even and Biden +1. Hard to believe. The polls, when summed up at the state, can tell a story. Trump believes in them. He has polls run by his team. What is most important to me is the trend over time in the polls. In 2016 the polls trended towards Trump as the election approached. Something I missed.

The only thing I've predicted concerning the race for POTUS is that it will be very close, closer than 2016 in my opinion. Some of my predictions is based on polls.

[HoeHummer]

Trust nothings. Believes everything’s.

Trump is lord.

All hails the great leader.

[nevergaveitathought]

Originally Posted by bambino

I’ve said it many times. The media and the polls work hand in hand. They try to influence public opinion. Especially in the Trump era. The Democrats and establishment Republicans are on board too.

don't they call the obvious ones, push polls?

but in the more subtle push polls, the negative or positive slants on questions or even the topics are meant to place an agenda before the nation

when will you see a poll on the framing of president trump by the dims and their government aides and;/or whether schiff can be believed?
never

but one on trump's handling of the corona virus with carefully worded questions, yeah

its similar to how the media doesn't cover some issues and covers others

[Austin Ellen]

Trump broke the polls. Despite what they say more people believe that Trump will win. I can't wait for Biden to get out there and start talking instead of doing it from his basement. Once that happens - it's agonna be all down hill from there.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Trump broke the polls. Despite what they say more people believe that Trump will win. I can't wait for Biden to get out there and start talking instead of doing it from his basement. Once that happens - it's agonna be all down hill from there.

Trump is the favorite. I've said that many times. What I also say is there will not be a landslide victory for Trump and it is looking doubtful at this time that he will win as many electoral votes as he did in 2016.

I can't wait For Trump to have to defend himself in a debate against the many lies/misstatements of facts that he has made.

Trump Is Lying More Than Ever: Just Look At The Data

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidma.../#7911f871e176

All the President’s Lies About the Coronavirus

An unfinished compendium of Trump’s overwhelming dishonesty during a national emergency

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...avirus/608647/

Scorecard
True

4%
34 Checks

Mostly True
10%
81 Checks

Half True
14%
117 Checks

Mostly False
21%
170 Checks

False
34%
278 Checks

Pants on Fire
14%
121 Checks

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/

My favorite recent lies made by Trump are concerning China paying for the tariffs imposed on them:

When President Trump sat before reporters in the Oval Office on Dec. 19 with Rep. Jeff Van Drew, the subject of the trade negotiations with China came up briefly. “They’re still paying tremendous amounts of tariffs,” the president said.

It was a notable comment only for its frequency of use. In fact, according to an analysis by Yahoo Finance, that was at least the 108th instance in 2019 that Trump falsely claimed China is “eating” or “being charged” or in some way “paying” for the tariffs his administration has imposed on Chinese imports.


Four years ago Trump had no political track record. Today he does and it is not a good one for the most part. He was sitting on a one-legged stool before the coronavirus hit -- the economy. Now that is gone. All he has is a promise that the economy will recover quickly and be stronger than ever before.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trump is the favorite. I've said that many times. What I also say is there will not be a landslide victory for Trump and it is looking doubtful at this time that he will win as many electoral votes as he did in 2016.

I can't wait For Trump to have to defend himself in a debate against the many lies/misstatements of facts that he has made.

Trump Is Lying More Than Ever: Just Look At The Data

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidma.../#7911f871e176

All the President’s Lies About the Coronavirus

An unfinished compendium of Trump’s overwhelming dishonesty during a national emergency

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...avirus/608647/

Scorecard
True

4%
34 Checks

Mostly True
10%
81 Checks

Half True
14%
117 Checks

Mostly False
21%
170 Checks

False
34%
278 Checks

Pants on Fire
14%
121 Checks

https://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/

My favorite recent lies made by Trump are concerning China paying for the tariffs imposed on them:

When President Trump sat before reporters in the Oval Office on Dec. 19 with Rep. Jeff Van Drew, the subject of the trade negotiations with China came up briefly. “They’re still paying tremendous amounts of tariffs,” the president said.

It was a notable comment only for its frequency of use. In fact, according to an analysis by Yahoo Finance, that was at least the 108th instance in 2019 that Trump falsely claimed China is “eating” or “being charged” or in some way “paying” for the tariffs his administration has imposed on Chinese imports.


Four years ago Trump had no political track record. Today he does and it is not a good one for the most part. He was sitting on a one-legged stool before the coronavirus hit -- the economy. Now that is gone. All he has is a promise that the economy will recover quickly and be stronger than ever before.

As to tariffs, if the Chinese lower their market prices to maintain market share as a mitigation effort against taxes, then they are eating the tariffs.

As to the election, I fervently hope Trump wins, and this time I think it is only 1-3 against him. Since he won before he might win again.

Many people hate him and will either vote against him or not vote for him. Trump supporters should not take victory for granted and realize it will be a hard struggle and should thus commit resources and time as well as encourage other supporters of our President to vote for him to counteract the ballot harvesting strategies of those who would steal our once great country away from us for good.

[dilbert firestorm]

since the american civil war, the 2 term presidency has been the norm. don't really see that changing.


well maybe not, we could see 1 term presidencies after trump either in 2020 or 2024. trump is some ways similar to andrew jackson. after jackson, there were several 1 term presidencies between 1836 - 1859.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

As to tariffs, if the Chinese lower their market prices to maintain market share as a mitigation effort against taxes, then they are eating the tariffs.

As to the election, I fervently hope Trump wins, and this time I think it is only 1-3 against him. Since he won before he might win again.

Many people hate him and will either vote against him or not vote for him. Trump supporters should not take victory for granted and realize it will be a hard struggle and should thus commit resources and time as well as encourage other supporters of our President to vote for him to counteract the ballot harvesting strategies of those who would steal our once great country away from us for good.

The Chinese might very well be eating the tariffs, or part of them. That does not make Trump's statement correct that we are collecting billions of dollars from the Chinese due to the tariffs.

Very well said on the upcoming election. We may support different candidates but I respect you POV.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

since the american civil war, the 2 term presidency has been the norm. don't really see that changing.

well maybe not, we could see 1 term presidencies after trump either in 2020 or 2024. trump is some ways similar to andrew jackson. after jackson, there were several 1 term presidencies between 1836 - 1859.

2 of the last 6 incumbent presidents have lost their bids for reelection -- Carter and George H.W. Bush. Both losses occurred while the country was in the midst of a recession. As we are now. The reelection victories by Reagan, Clinton, W Bush, and Obama were in years where the economy was in decent shape economically.

Trump currently has a large money lead over Biden and is using it in battleground states. Could make a difference. I'm sure you noticed that his first trip outside the WH in months was to Arizona, a key battleground state.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

2 of the last 6 incumbent presidents have lost their bids for reelection -- Carter and George H.W. Bush. Both losses occurred while the country was in the midst of a recession. As we are now. The reelection victories by Reagan, Clinton, W Bush, and Obama were in years where the economy was in decent shape economically.

Trump currently has a large money lead over Biden and is using it in battleground states. Could make a difference. I'm sure you noticed that his first trip outside the WH in months was to Arizona, a key battleground state.

you left out kennedy and johnston. both were 1 term presidents.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The Chinese might very well be eating the tariffs, or part of them. That does not make Trump's statement correct that we are collecting billions of dollars from the Chinese due to the tariffs.

Very well said on the upcoming election. We may support different candidates but I respect you POV.

Thank you.

[The_Waco_Kid]

how can a dull butter knife have an edge?




BAHHHAAAAAAA