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The Political Forum Discuss anything related to politics in this forum. World politics, US Politics, State and Local.

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Old 04-29-2020, 08:36 PM   #136
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Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
I have mentioned that as a caveat in the polls I have cited. In approval rating polls upwards of 95% of the respondents either approve or disapprove of Trump. Very few non-respondents.

In presidential preference polls, the number of those non-repondents (no preference, undecided, don't care) is higher. Anywhere from 5%-15%. What is interesting is it seems when the poll consists of "All Voters" the number of non-respondents is higher than the poll consisting of "Registered Voters". And polls consisting of "Likely Voters" has the least number of non-respondents.

I would say that about 10-15% of voters are undecided at this point in time.

https://www.statista.com/chart/19872...ion-undecided/
You have no idea what’s going on, just like the polls you cherish.
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Old 04-30-2020, 04:57 AM   #137
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Default Hope casting for dummies

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All I can say is Biden is not only leading in polls but seems to be increasing his lead despite his gaffes. On the other hand, you have nothing to support any opinion that anyone is taking Biden's gaffes into account as to for whom they will vote. Nothing.

These are no longer gaffes. Joe has always been fun to make fun of, but these cerebral phase outs have crossed the Rubicon. Even young, dumb and undecided voters do not want a vegetable for President.
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:36 AM   #138
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You have no idea what’s going on, just like the polls you cherish.
You are getting as bad as BB.

So how would YOU answer the question as to what percentage of the voters are undecided at this point in time? Lay your wisdom on us.
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:37 AM   #139
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These are no longer gaffes. Joe has always been fun to make fun of, but these cerebral phase outs have crossed the Rubicon. Even young, dumb and undecided voters do not want a vegetable for President.
Yet my bet is you can't point to any factual evidence that the young, dumb, and undecided voters favor Trump over Biden.
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Old 04-30-2020, 08:09 AM   #140
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It is utterly flabbergasting how the Trumpholians whine all fiscal days about Bidens “gaffes” when he’s not speaking, while the human bullshits machine they worship gives the world a two hour dose of bullshits every day.

How’s do they rectifys that in their tiny minds?
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Old 04-30-2020, 08:22 AM   #141
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These are no longer gaffes. Joe has always been fun to make fun of, but these cerebral phase outs have crossed the Rubicon. Even young, dumb and undecided voters do not want a vegetable for President.
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Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
Yet my bet is you can't point to any factual evidence that the young, dumb, and undecided voters favor Trump over Biden.
I didn't interpret the first statement as an either or choice.

As I said earlier many younger voters just don't have the enthusiasm for the vegetable that is Biden. That doesn't automatically mean they will favor Trump over Biden. It's simply that Biden is so bad to them that they can't stomach voting for him and will just not vote or possibly go green party or some other alternative if on the ballot where they are at.

I read a piece to that effect several days ago in the Wall Street Journal, but can't get back to the body of it right now due to the paywall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/young-v...el-11587504682
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Old 04-30-2020, 09:20 AM   #142
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Default Enthusiasm trust issues

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...many younger voters just don't have the enthusiasm for the vegetable that is Biden. ...

My read is the people that have actual enthusiasm for Joe are the ones that will benefit directly from being in his orbit, mostly because they know it will be a dead star wobble which they will be able to mine for gold.
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Old 04-30-2020, 09:34 AM   #143
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My read is the people that have actual enthusiasm for Joe are the ones that will benefit directly from being in his orbit, mostly because they know it will be a dead star wobble which they will be able to mine for gold.
Yeah I saw where of likely Biden voters he has a horrible 20-30% very enthusiastic rating.

It's a long way from the election, but Biden just isn't doing it for the Dems from an enthusiasm standpoint. It's a long way from the election, but that enthusiasm gap could play a role.
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Old 04-30-2020, 09:35 AM   #144
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I didn't interpret the first statement as an either or choice.

As I said earlier many younger voters just don't have the enthusiasm for the vegetable that is Biden. That doesn't automatically mean they will favor Trump over Biden. It's simply that Biden is so bad to them that they can't stomach voting for him and will just not vote or possibly go green party or some other alternative if on the ballot where they are at.

I read a piece to that effect several days ago in the Wall Street Journal, but can't get back to the body of it right now due to the paywall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/young-v...el-11587504682
The majority of young voters seem to be Democratic.

"Politics is in realignment. And perhaps the most underappreciated change is this: Based on recent research at Tufts University's Tisch College of Civic Life, young voters, ages 18-29, played a significant role in the 2018 midterms and are poised to shape elections in 2020 and beyond.

For decades, this age bracket has turned out at lower rates than older voters, particularly in midterm elections. While experts have often attributed this to apathy, a complicated set of reasons may explain low turnout, including barriers to access, suppression, waning civic education and historic disadvantages. Despite these headwinds, 2018 marked a turning point.

In 2018, the youth vote increased in all 42 states for which youth voting data is available, according to the analysis by researchers at Tufts' Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE). Based on this available data, which represents 94% of the American youth population, Tisch College researchers estimate 28.2% of young people nationwide voted in 2018 -- more than double the national youth turnout in 2014.

Turnout among college students -- an important subset of the youth vote -- was even more impressive in 2018, at 40.3%. Research also showed that young voters preferred Democrat House candidates by 35 points, a massive margin that helped Democrats win back the House and far exceeded the highest gap of 27 points from 2008."


So the question is who will these young voters vote for in 2020 if it comes down to Biden and Trump? I'm sure the majority would have voted for Sanders. I would assume that their political views align more with Biden than Trump so will these young voters sit out the election or vote for their second choice? Certainly some who would have voted for Sanders would vote for Trump, but not many. Biden is well aware that he must gain the support of the young voters and motivate them to get out to the polls on election day. Gaining the strong support of those who are more left of center than Biden such as Sanders and Warren helps.

At this point in time, it is another question that can't be answered.
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Old 04-30-2020, 09:43 AM   #145
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At this point in time, it is another question that can't be answered.
On this we agree, but I'm seeing more and more opinions like the WSJ one, which was from someone who is certainly not in the Trump camp, but also see where college age students just can't stomach Biden.

I also have college age kids who are very disillusioned that Biden is the candidate of choice and that the "chatter" they are hearing is that they and many of their friends will probably just not vote. And they mention the difference in attitude now and from 2018. Trump was a major factor in getting them out to vote Dem in 2018. Now with Biden, they no longer see a major difference in candidates.

Doesn't bode well for Biden at this point in time.
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Old 04-30-2020, 11:27 AM   #146
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Originally Posted by eccielover View Post
I didn't interpret the first statement as an either or choice.

As I said earlier many younger voters just don't have the enthusiasm for the vegetable that is Biden. That doesn't automatically mean they will favor Trump over Biden. It's simply that Biden is so bad to them that they can't stomach voting for him and will just not vote or possibly go green party or some other alternative if on the ballot where they are at.

I read a piece to that effect several days ago in the Wall Street Journal, but can't get back to the body of it right now due to the paywall.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/young-v...el-11587504682

looks like the wsj site is down, internal server error...


i'll see if i can come back later and post it.
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Old 05-01-2020, 07:02 AM   #147
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What did bitten say to Al Bore...that WTF look on Al's face was...PRICELESS!!
The debates are going to rival the best slap stick comedy anyone has ever seen!!
But that's right SPEED "the debates aren't going to matter"...BULLSHIT!!
Anyone that would vote for a person that can't string two sentences together doesn't have this country's best interest and doesn't put country above politics...you and NAN Antoinette are perfect examples of fuck the country and embrace socialism...that's some sorry shit.
Ah, the socialism claims again. Yet no one, and obviously not you, can point out one socialistic policy Obama put forward in 8 years in office and not one plank on Biden's current platform that is socialistic. eccielover, I believe, made mention of a possibility under Obama which has not yet come true.

Let's suppose for a moment that the debates occur between Trump and Biden, and Trump comes out ahead. How can you or anyone else prove that the debates changed anyone's vote? I realize you are not bright enough to answer the question but maybe one of the more astute people on this forum can answer in you stead.
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Old 05-01-2020, 07:14 AM   #148
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On this we agree, but I'm seeing more and more opinions like the WSJ one, which was from someone who is certainly not in the Trump camp, but also see where college age students just can't stomach Biden.

I also have college age kids who are very disillusioned that Biden is the candidate of choice and that the "chatter" they are hearing is that they and many of their friends will probably just not vote. And they mention the difference in attitude now and from 2018. Trump was a major factor in getting them out to vote Dem in 2018. Now with Biden, they no longer see a major difference in candidates.

Doesn't bode well for Biden at this point in time.
It's not like Biden NEEDS a huge turnout of young voters in order to win.

Trump supporters easily forget how close the 2016 election was with a few thousand votes spread across 4 states determining the election. With little turnout from the younger voters. Any increase at all with the younger voters will help Biden since those younger voters mostly favor Democrats. Just a handful of votes in 5 or 6 states could turn them from red to blue.

In 2018 suburban women who had supported Trump voted heavily for Democratic candidates. If Trump can't get that voting bloc to swing back towards him, he will be in trouble. And right now that does not seem to be happening. Maybe the Tara Reade controversy will help Trump.

An article just out:

We’ve Got Some Early Trump vs. Biden Swing State Polling

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...state-polling/
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Old 05-01-2020, 07:15 AM   #149
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How do you expect Biden to remember what day the debate is on?? Trump will have to give him a heads up!!
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Old 05-01-2020, 07:31 AM   #150
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Trumps already got a heads up. His bum.
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