Tariff Man and his tariff plan cause market plunges

[HDGristle]

Originally Posted by bambino

OOOOF!!!!!!

Not sure why Gristle gets so excited about this thread getting bumped. He gets shredded routinely. He's reduced to moving the goal posts. But, but, but, the market would’ve got to 50k sooner if not for the tariffs!!! Eggs and gas prices would have dropped sooner if it wasn’t for tariffs!!! He’ll complain when he gets his tariff check that it would’ve come sooner and would be larger if it wasn’t for tariffs!! That’s his “logic”.

Shredded in your head, but not in reality.

In a similar vein, I wouldn't qualify for the currently imaginary tariff rebate based on their criteria. I make far too much.

It's not even close

I did, however, note that the tariff impact cost me a few bucks after factoring is the tax break. I do appreciate your concern, though. As always

[HDGristle]

https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/...can-household/

Another good read

[bambino]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

Shredded in your head, but not in reality.

In a similar vein, I wouldn't qualify for the currently imaginary tariff rebate based on their criteria. I make far too much.

It's not even close

I did, however, note that the tariff impact cost me a few bucks after factoring is the tax break. I do appreciate your concern, though. As always

It’s all here in black and white. It’s reality.

[HDGristle]

It's kind of like when Trump only converts on 27% of his tariff threats and is bigly behind on the promised deals even this far past his moving goalposts.

You and Lusty and GM and Cortes pretend that's proof he was right when in reality it's TACO trade. You tout revenue and declining trade deficits without talking about the costs. The impact on real people. The downward pressure on GDP. What do you think would happen in the markets if Tariffman dropped his tariffs back to 2024 levels?

And I call then tantrums because that is what they are

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/10/polit...hreat-intl-hnk

He throws around tantrums and threats when his tariffs lead to retaliaton. Truly a childish display of diplomacy and statecraft after he fumbled so hard with his Canadian tariffs

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

It's kind of like when Trump only converts on 27% of his tariff threats and is bigly behind on the promised deals even this far past his moving goalposts.

You're giving him a 27% win rate so far? Hey, that ain't bad.

It took Obama 3 years to negotiate a couple of trade deals with Colombia and South Korea, remember? Trump is juggling over a hundred deals.

Remember what Salena Zito advised, Mr. Gristle. You need to take trumpy seriously, but not literally. Focus on the trajectory and eventual outcome, not the timeframe. You probably believed him when he said he would end the Ukraine conflict on Day One, dintcha?

[HDGristle]

No, here's only at about a 5% win rate on deals and that's being very, very generous.

27% is the inverse TACO rate. Following through on the threat isn't a win. And even on that 27% he's subsequently walked parts of that back, too.

You just keep missing the mark

[bambino]

Originally Posted by lustylad

You're giving him a 27% win rate so far? Hey, that ain't bad.

It took Obama 3 years to negotiate a couple of trade deals with Colombia and South Korea, remember? Trump is juggling over a hundred deals.

Remember what Salena Zito advised, Mr. Gristle. You need to take trumpy seriously, but not literally. Focus on the trajectory and eventual outcome, not the timeframe. You probably believed him when he said he would end the Ukraine conflict on Day One, dintcha?

Cmon Lusty, it’s well known that Gristle claims an attention span of two weeks. I doubt it’s that long. Tariffs are here, things are demonstrably better than just two years ago. And will get better.

[HDGristle]

Originally Posted by bambino

Cmon Lusty, it’s well known that Gristle claims an attention span of two weeks. I doubt it’s that long. Tariffs are here, things are demonstrably better than just two years ago. And will get better.

Wrong again.

That's Trump's favorite timeline for promises

[bambino]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

No, here's only at about a 5% win rate on deals and that's being very, very generous.

27% is the inverse TACO rate. Following through on the threat isn't a win. And even on that 27% he's subsequently walked parts of that back, too.

You just keep missing the mark

You keep changing the mark. That don’t make any sense.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

Wrong again.

That's Trump's favorite timeline for promises

If you say so.

[HDGristle]

Originally Posted by bambino

If you say so.

Actually, HE did

[HDGristle]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjmepg4pzlo

$900m. That's a not insignificant hit to a good, American company

[HDGristle]

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by HDGristle

You and Lusty and GM and Cortes pretend that's proof he was right when in reality it's TACO trade. You tout revenue and declining trade deficits without talking about the costs. The impact on real people. The downward pressure on GDP. What do you think would happen in the markets if Tariffman dropped his tariffs back to 2024 levels?

And I call then tantrums because that is what they are.

Nice to see you make some arguments in your own words. Keep it up.

Has it occurred to you that crafting trade policy isn't a binary "right versus wrong" issue, but one that is more akin to calibration? Think dimmer dial, not on/off switch.

And yes, let's talk about the impact on real people. Should 1,250 Whirlpool workers in Iowa and Tennessee lose their jobs so the average American consumer can save a few bucks on a washing machine? Try to remember the benefits of free trade are widely diffuse, while the costs are highly localized. Which is more important? Economists call it making trade-off decisions.

The "downward pressure on GDP" you cite may be over-rated. Insofar as tariffs have a notable substitution effect (i.e. they cause consumers to switch to US-made products) and/or prompt foreign companies to build plants here to supply the US market, the net impact is lessened. For now, the US economy is still growing by around 4% a year, a rate nearly all economists consider "robust".

I have no idea how the stock market would behave if all tariffs were rolled back, but if you enjoy positing and testing such counter-factuals, by all means have at it!

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by bambino

Cmon Lusty, it’s well known that Gristle claims an attention span of two weeks. I doubt it’s that long.

Two weeks? Go back and read his post #1582. He complained after I clocked it at 2 minutes. He boasted it's even less than that!!