Iran's New Conditions to End the War..

[royamcr]

This site usually unlocks paywalls.

https://www.archivebuttons.com/ You have to cycle through a few options to get it to work usually.

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Sorry, Axios requires membership. Can't read the article. But I get the gist of it as: China and Pakistan want to insure oil flows through the Strait unmolested. AmmIrite.

Any idea where it's headed to and how it get's there?
Let's start with some old-aged technology, locally known as an Atlas. You might remember them from your early school years.

Any idea why the Chyyyyna and Pakistan would be so loving, caring and altruistic?

The Chyyyna gets a touch over 54% of it's oil through the Strait, mostly from Saudi Arabia, I think.

Pakistan clocks in upwards of 80+%.

Or is it something else; known locally as self-serving.

FWIW: Trump already told them that they were free to escort their ships if so interested. If not, then oh well...

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Closing the Strait is a bfd. You might more accurately call it taking hostages or terrorism. Frankly, it's more in the delusional category, when you consider that there are 60 seconds in every minute to eliminate their abilities, aka bomb the bejesus out of their chite, to make good on their own illusions of grandeur.

Who’s dying because of the closure?

Was it closed prior to the US attacking Iran?

Is there a direct link between US action towards Iran and the closure of the Strait?

Kinda hard to call it terrorism or hostage taking when it’s in response to the US and Israel attacking Iran without any real provocation.

[VitaMan]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Closing the Strait is a bfd. You might more accurately call it taking hostages or terrorism. Frankly, it's more in the delusional category, when you consider that there are 60 seconds in every minute to eliminate their abilities, aka bomb the bejesus out of their chite, to make good on their own illusions of grandeur.

You can call Trump's efforts extortion.

[VitaMan]

Trump sinks lower to buffoon status.


He says unconditional surrender.
Then he says he won the war.
He begs allies for assistance when a short time before he was talking about taking Greenland.
He says he will destroy Iran infrastructure unless the Strait is opened.
Less than 24 hours after he says the Strait doesn't matter.
He says he will leave in 3 weeks, and the allies will have to be the ones to reopen the Strait.


Complete buffoonery

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by pxmcc

a cease fire in exchange for opening the Strait. Pakistan and China were the intermediaries.

opening the Strait is a bfd. basically China and Pakistan are trying to save Trump from himself while pursuing their own self interest.

Trump is in a bad spot. he needs a miraculous save. que the China/Pakistan offer to bail Trump out. i'm sure Iran is on board cause they're about to be fooked..

everyone knows that either a deal gets done or bilateral slaughter awaits..

Trump and Netanyahu’s war against Iran is a strategic fuckup of the first order.

Having China and Pakistan bring this to a close is good for everyone except the public perception of Trump, Netanyahu, the United States, Israel and Iran itself.

But make no mistake solving this issue is a top priority for everyone in Aisa.

Here’s what I read in an opinion piece in the NYT. If the article is accurate things are going to get worse before they get better and the sooner we can get oil and gas production back up to normal levels the better.

https://archive.ph/DsEdk
This Energy Crisis Is Going to Change the World

Sri Lanka and Myanmar are rationing fuel. The Philippines has instituted four-day workweeks to conserve gasoline and electricity. Bangladesh briefly closed its universities to reserve power for homes and businesses. Across India, families and restaurants are cooking over wood fires for want of gas. Airlines are canceling flights.

As painful as the first phase of the energy crisis set off by the war with Iran has been, what comes next will be worse. This week, the final deliveries of oil and liquefied natural gas to Asia that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before it was closed are expected to arrive. The last tanker shipments to Europe should land by mid-April. After that, many countries’ reserves of gasoline, diesel, liquid petroleum gas and natural gas will dwindle. The price of oil could soar as high as $200 a barrel if the war drags on.

Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has called this “the greatest global energy security threat in history” — much worse than the 1970s oil crisis, the Covid pandemic or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This conflict has disrupted a bigger share of the global oil and gas trade, and there is no way to quickly fill the gap.

….

That’s important because it could be years before the oil and gas supply is restored to prewar levels. After Iranian missiles struck the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas export facility in Qatar, the country ceased production of the fuel entirely, suddenly taking 20 percent of the world’s supply off the market. Officials predict it will take three to five years to bring that plant, the world’s largest, fully online again. Other operators in the region also cut back on producing oil and gas because they are running out of places to store it all. Those wells can’t just be flipped back on like a light switch; it will take months to ramp production back up, creating more pressure to find alternatives.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

So's yer say'n we can trust Iran when they say they have no nukes (material) ..........

Not saying that at all. There was abundance of high tech monitoring technology installed at Iran Nuke plants to detect cheating. Plus there were 150 IAEA inspectors conducting inspections before President Trump removed the USA from the agreement in May of 2018. See post #83 in this thread.

[Michael8219]

If the war ends and Hormuz reopens by ~April 22, the crisis would likely look like:
Severe but brief shock (weeks)
Price spike followed by rapid normalization
Localized economic damage, not systemic collapse

Historically, energy systems are:
More flexible than expected
Politically and economically prioritized for rapid repair. The pattern is consistent:
Initial panic → dire predictions → faster-than-expected recovery. The article above is the dire predictions phase that we are currently in.

Check historical events for what generally happens:

1973 Oil Crisis: Embargo cut supply, prices surged, recession followed globally
Bottom line: Shock drove efficiency, new supply, and eventual stabilization

Iranian Revolution: Production collapse doubled prices, triggered inflation and economic stress
Bottom line: Demand adjusted, new production restored balance relatively quickly

Gulf War: Invasion disrupted supply; oil fires exaggerated long-term damage fears
Bottom line: Prices stabilized quickly; production recovered faster than expected

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Sanctions disrupted flows; Europe rapidly replaced Russian energy supplies
Bottom line: Diversification, LNG imports, and conservation limited long-term impact

Trump is signaling that we will leave in the next 3 (or 4 or more?) weeks

[fd-guy]

Originally Posted by Michael8219

If the war ends and Hormuz reopens by ~April 22, the crisis would likely look like:
Severe but brief shock (weeks)
Price spike followed by rapid normalization
Localized economic damage, not systemic collapse

Historically, energy systems are:
More flexible than expected
Politically and economically prioritized for rapid repair. The pattern is consistent:
Initial panic → dire predictions → faster-than-expected recovery. The article above is the dire predictions phase that we are currently in.

Check historical events for what generally happens:

1973 Oil Crisis: Embargo cut supply, prices surged, recession followed globally
Bottom line: Shock drove efficiency, new supply, and eventual stabilization

Iranian Revolution: Production collapse doubled prices, triggered inflation and economic stress
Bottom line: Demand adjusted, new production restored balance relatively quickly

Gulf War: Invasion disrupted supply; oil fires exaggerated long-term damage fears
Bottom line: Prices stabilized quickly; production recovered faster than expected

Russian invasion of Ukraine: Sanctions disrupted flows; Europe rapidly replaced Russian energy supplies
Bottom line: Diversification, LNG imports, and conservation limited long-term impact

Trump is signaling that we will leave in the next 3 (or 4 or more?) weeks

You're right—the historical comparisons have some truth to them, but they're missing key pieces. Past crises mainly hit oil supplies. This one's different: it's knocked out 20% of global oil and LNG at the same time, while also disrupting fertilizers, helium, and food imports for Gulf states that rely on the strait for 80% of their calories. Qatar's already declared force majeure on all its LNG exports, and parts of the world's biggest LNG plant got hit by missiles—repairs could take five years. That's not in the 1973 crisis handbook.

The idea of a "faster than expected recovery" also assumes the infrastructure's still there. Iranian strikes have damaged desalination plants, ports, and energy facilities across the Gulf. Some of that won't bounce back in weeks.

The April 22 deadline isn't really a plan—it's more of a hope. Trump has called the war over a dozen times and hasn't met a single stated deadline yet. Analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, supply losses could double by mid-April. Every extra week means damage that lingers long after the fighting stops.

History's a valid point to consider, and the analysis holds up to a point. It just doesn't go far enough into the tougher realities.

It's presented as balanced, but it's really the optimistic scenario.

[pxmcc]

so if the Strait is the Pottery Barn, Trump clumsily waltzed in, even after he was warned by his friends not to go inside, and promptly broke a vase. instead of fixing it himself, he gets mad at his friends for not helping him to fix the broken vase, and then walks out without paying for the vase or fixing it himself, declaring, "Well I don't even use that vase anyway, so anyone who does should fix it themselves.."

"and by the way, don't expect me to uphold any prior agreements that have nothing to do with the vase i broke, because I am a willful and spoiled child having a temper tantrum because i didn't get my way.."

and, not at all surprisingly, the manager says, "I'm now in charge of the vase. if you want to use it, you must pay me first.."

did i miss anything..

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Trump sinks lower to buffoon status.


He says unconditional surrender.
Then he says he won the war.
He begs allies for assistance when a short time before he was talking about taking Greenland.
He says he will destroy Iran infrastructure unless the Strait is opened.
Less than 24 hours after he says the Strait doesn't matter.
He says he will leave in 3 weeks, and the allies will have to be the ones to reopen the Strait.


Complete buffoonery

Originally Posted by pxmcc

so if the Strait is the Pottery Barn, Trump clumsily waltzed in, even after he was warned by his friends not to go inside, and promptly broke a vase. instead of fixing it himself, he gets mad at his friends for not helping him to fix the broken vase, and then walks out without paying for the vase or fixing it himself, declaring, "Well I don't even use that vase anyway, so anyone who does should fix it themselves.."

"and by the way, don't expect me to uphold any prior agreements that have nothing to do with the vase i broke, because I am a willful and spoiled child having a temper tantrum because i didn't get my way.."

and, not at all surprisingly, the manager says, "I'm now in charge of the vase. if you want to use it, you must pay me first.."

did i miss anything..

Kinda sounds like how he operated when he bought into one of those bush league football teams back in the day.