We've Flatten The Curve. It's Time For Texas To Move On.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by Tiny

They're updating their forecasts daily. In one day Texas has moved from an estimated surplus of 619 ICU beds to a shortage of 210 beds. Estimated deaths are up as well to 6029. I don't remember the number from yesterday but think it was between 4000 and 5000.

The main reason would probably be they've got more data. Other possible reasons, we haven't implemented social distancing data here in Texas the way the forecasters had assumed, or changes in their model.

I don't care as much about "estimated" data than "actual" data.

"could" "probably" "possible" "assumed" "model" are just phrases to justify panicking the public.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

How fucking lazy are yous, oebsy?

Those stats are updated online constantly and easily accessible. A real health care provider would know that.

But yous need someone else to keep yous informed? A true a Trump los information troll.

You’ve outed yourself for the deserter yous are,

Hey HoeHummer, I have to give Oeb some credit. The majority of people here have been taking this a whole lot less seriously than you and me, without much basis for their view. Oeb came up with the data and the analysis, from a Stanford epidemiologist and public health expert, that would provide some justification for an optimistic view. At the same time, I think he can appreciate what I posted, that in this model, Texas overnight has gone from a forecasted surplus of ICU beds to a deficit, which I believe means he is taking this seriously, and hopefully hedging his bets with social distancing and the like.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

I don't care as much about "estimated" data than "actual" data.

"could" "probably" "possible" "assumed" "model" are just phrases to justify panicking the public.

I don't know how this is panicking the public. The mean estimate from this model, 82,000 deaths in the USA, is a little worse than a bad flu season. That’s assuming 4 types of social distancing are implemented nationwide. What's important, if you think you may have a shortage of ICU beds ahead of time you can prepare and try to fix that.

As to panicking the public, there's a fine line between that and having more people dead because they don't take it seriously. Think about the kids on spring break in Florida that took this back to their grandparents.

And there's actual data from Wuhan, Italy, Spain, and New York City, people without ventilators and hospital beds.

[oeb11]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Hey HoeHummer, I have to give Oeb some credit. The majority of people here have been taking this a whole lot less seriously than you and me, without much basis for their view. Oeb came up with the data and the analysis, from a Stanford epidemiologist and public health expert, that would provide some justification for an optimistic view. At the same time, I think he can appreciate what I posted, that in this model, Texas overnight has gone from a forecasted surplus of ICU beds to a deficit, which I believe means he is taking this seriously, and hopefully hedging his bets with social distancing and the like.

Thank you , good Sir!
We are learning every day. Projections always have flaws - part of the nature of dealing with the inherent variables of Humanity.

all I can do is try to post the best info available - in a form useful to the readership.
Which is what Tiny has been doing

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

It may never go down if we continue to choke off society. How long is this "shelter in place", "social distancing", "self-quarantine" or whatever you want to call it supposed to last?

We've flatten the curve like they asked. Start putting people back to work. If it gets too bad then we'll cross that road when we get there.

I have seen NO EVIDENCE of the medical system collapsing HERE IN AMERICA. We built capacity, let use it.

Again, if this affected babies, children and young people, I'd have a different opinion. BUT IT APPARENTLY DOESN'T. From what I've read, there aren't many negative permanent affects from having it.

This isn't polio.

This thread isn't aging well, is it?

We haven't flattened the curve anywhere yet, although there are some small glimmers that it might be about to flatten.

Here is the map with the world statistics on it.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Zoom in on the USA and look at the rising exponential curve. Where is it flattening? Dallas has about 550 cases. They had about 50 when you started this thread. Is that flattening?

We won't know for another week, maybe two weeks, if we are flattening out yet.

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

Pretty good thanks for asking. I don't think you know about "curve flattening" and "exponential" like the media would like you to think.

I've got advanced degrees in engineering. So, yeah, I understand exponentials, the natural logarithm, and curves pretty well.

Take a look at the US on this map. Tthen look at China, which I think is fake data - but it does show a flattened curve:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

The US is still rising like a rocket.

Texas is rising fast, too. It is about 3-4 weeks behind NY, but is heading in the same direction. Texas may never get as bad as NYC because it does not have crowded subways and buses. But Texas has no flattened out either.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Kinkster90210

I've got advanced degrees in engineering. So, yeah, I understand exponentials, the natural logarithm, and curves pretty well.

Take a look at the US on this map. Tthen look at China, which I think is fake data - but it does show a flattened curve:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

The US is still rising like a rocket.

Texas is rising fast, too. It is about 3-4 weeks behind NY, but is heading in the same direction. Texas may never get as bad as NYC because it does not have crowded subways and buses. But Texas has no flattened out either.

Hey Mr. F^%$&^ engineer with an advanced degrees (ooohhhh) - how is this exponential here in Texas?

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential


We are beating this thing in Texas! Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low and not growing.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3

I think a reasonable person could conclude, from the deaths, that it isn't a bad trend. As for the increase in cases, well, we have only been testing patients with obvious symptoms, which I believe you people call a biased sample. Until we randomly test a representative sample of the population, we really can't know if the case rate is increasing or not, can we?

I think the hospitalization rate would be a better variable, compared to hospitalizations this time last year.

I'm willing to concede we need two more weeks of data to know what happened to people infected in the last 2 weeks, but it doesn't look bad so far.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by oeb11

..."Facts" won't change fidel - or help the tens of thousands of Cubans he executed.

Fidel won't even tell us if he taught them to read before they were killed.

[Jaxson66]

28 University of Texas spring breakers who flouted public health advice test positive for coronavirus

As stores and offices closed throughout March, many people watched with anger as thousands of college students poured into tropical locales, crowding beaches and bars to party during their regularly scheduled spring breaks.

Now, as the pandemic has spread further, many people’s fears have been realized as college students by the dozen have tested positive for covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

About 70 students from the University of Texas at Austin, all in their 20s, chartered a plane to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, in late March. They took the trip despite public health advice to avoid crowding as well as nonessential air travel.

On Tuesday, Austin public health officials announced 28 students, more than a third of the young people who took the trip, had returned and tested positive for the coronavirus. Many of the remaining students are under public health monitoring, according to officials.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...breakers-sick/

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Jaxson66

28 University of Texas spring breakers who flouted public health advice test positive for coronavirus...

So what does that tell you about Darwin's Survival of the Fittest and the quality of our education system and values?

[oeb11]

the "flagship university" must have instituted Fidel Castro reading remediation courses after recommendations from the noted "expert" j666.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

So what does that tell you about Darwin's Survival of the Fittest and the quality of our education system and values?

And statistically doesn't that age group lean largely Democrat sometimes bodering on outright socialist proclivity.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by eccielover

And statistically doesn't that age group lean largely Democrat sometimes bodering on outright socialist proclivity.

Probably so, I s'pose. But we do know that 99%+ of college professors absolutely lean, hard core, that way. I just know from my culinary experiences that if you put too much vinegar into the recipe it tends to taste a lot like vinegar.
But my math sense would view the equation more along the lines of:
Prof --> Garbage Out --> + Student --> Garbage In = Socialist

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Hey Mr. F^%$&^ engineer with an advanced degrees (ooohhhh) - how is this exponential here in Texas?

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential


We are beating this thing in Texas! Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low and not growing.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3

I think a reasonable person could conclude, from the deaths, that it isn't a bad trend. As for the increase in cases, well, we have only been testing patients with obvious symptoms, which I believe you people call a biased sample. Until we randomly test a representative sample of the population, we really can't know if the case rate is increasing or not, can we?

I think the hospitalization rate would be a better variable, compared to hospitalizations this time last year.

I'm willing to concede we need two more weeks of data to know what happened to people infected in the last 2 weeks, but it doesn't look bad so far.

His engineering degree is in Sanitation Engineering. I had an argument on another board where the "opponent" finally admitted that if CV deaths are rising "exponentially" the exponent is closer to 1.2 rather than a minimum of 2. Based on his logic the factor was really 1.02 but I had wasted enough time with him.

[friendly fred]

29Mar2020 positive tests 2,552 negative tests 23,208 deaths 34 total tests 25,760
30Mar2020 positive tests 2,877 negative tests 33,003 deaths 38 total tests 35,880
31Mar2020 positive tests 3,266 negative tests 42,992 deaths 41 total tests 42992
01Apr2020 positive tests 3,997 negative tests 43,860 deaths 58 total tests 47857

(2877-2552)/2552 = 12.7% increase
(3266-2877)/2877 = 13.5% increase - mild, not exponential
(3997-3266)/3266 = 22.4% increase - definitely worse

Death rate in Texas for COVID-19 still very low but possibly growing.

Since 25 March Daily deaths 6, 5, 4, 7, 4, 3, 17

Bad day for deaths. The number tomorrow is important.

I still think the hospitalization rate would be a better variable, compared to hospitalizations this time last year.

I'm willing to concede we need two more weeks of data to know what happened to people infected in the last 2 weeks, but it doesn't look bad so far.