Place your bets here - Electoral College and Senate

[winn dixie]

Originally Posted by Jam3768

Unfortunately I have Whiny Trixie on ignore so I missed out being able to read those last 2 pearls of wisdom.

b/s! You dont have that kind of control! You cant help it!

bajahajahahahajjjajajajaja

[Yssup Rider]

Just a matter of time...

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight

.



The second half of the 1990s was a truly remarkable era. Government spending as a percentage of GDP (which in my view is always how it should be viewed) fell by more than three full percentage points.


Of course, strong growth abetted by productivity and technological advances in the dotcom era helped, but policy was headed in the right direction. The robust growth was -- I believe at least in part -- a consequence of those better policy decisions.


Bill Clinton intoned at the outset of a mid-'90s State of the Union address that:


"The era of big government is over!"


Shrewd political advisor Dick Morris got Bill to go all-in on the concept of "triangulation," after which he cooperated with Newt to restrain the growth of spending, and even cut the capital gains tax! (From 28% to 20%.)


Now I'm afraid we are in for a very difficult and chaotic decade, since the new rallying cry might as well be:


"The era of big government being over is -- FUCKING WELL ANCIENT HISTORY!!"


(Damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead with Professor Stephanie's Magical MMT Machine.)
.

Balderdash! There's nothing magical about a printing press. This has been done for years -- look at Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and various Latin American countries. Although based on your excellent review of Miss Stephanie's book, I guess she has decided to jack up taxes, probably on the "wealthy", in addition to running huge deficits. So the radical wing of the Democratic party can do its two favorite things -- hand out free stuff and demonize the rich.

I'd add that Newt Gingrich and the Republicans and Bill Clinton also lowered capital gains taxes and reformed welfare. Clinton's second term, and his first two years when Democrats controlled the House and Senate, were like night and day.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'd add that Newt Gingrich and the Republicans and Bill Clinton also lowered capital gains taxes and reformed welfare. Clinton's second term, and his first two years when Democrats controlled the House and Senate, were like night and day.

With Trump out of office the GOP will get back to the party of austerity!

They will probably recapture the House in 2022.

Then we can start looking at the debt again.

It is the only combination that works...

[eccieuser9500]

‘People Are Going To Be Shocked’: Return of the ‘Shy’ Trump Voter?


https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...te-2016-433619

Polls are undercounting the people who don’t want to give their real opinions. If they had corrected anything, why didn’t they see Ron DeSantis winning in his 2018 race for governor in Florida? They made the exact same mistake with his opponent, Andrew Gillum. [The final RealClearPolitics polling average in that race had Gillum up by 3.6 percentage points. DeSantis won by 0.4 percentage points.] This wasn’t some random state’s race; this was the hottest, meanest — neck and neck races for governor and senator in Florida in an off-year election. Every single major player was polling that state. And 100 percent of them got it wrong; we got it right.

[texassapper]

It's going to be MONTHS of fun coming back here and poking the dumbshits that all KNEW Biden was going to win... It'll probably save me money on hobbying since I will have so much fun making fun of the libtards on here

[HedonistForever]

I heard a talking head say this last night and I'm inclined to agree with the possibility that it's completely wrong.


More than ever it would seem, voters will be voting a straight ticket for President and Senators. If Trump wins re-election, the Senate will probably remain in the hands of the Republicans.



If Biden wins the Presidency, the Dem's will probably take the Senate.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by texassapper

It's going to be MONTHS of fun coming back here and poking the dumbshits that all KNEW Biden was going to win... It'll probably save me money on hobbying since I will have so much fun making fun of the libtards on here

How do you figure, JL?

You willing to take another five year sabbatical with this mandle?

[eccieuser9500]

US Senate elections: the key races that will determine power in Washington


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-in-washington

The number of additional seats the Democrats need to win for a voting majority depends on who wins the White House, since any Senate tie of 50-50 is broken by the sitting vice-president. If Trump wins re-election, the Democrats probably need three states, in addition to Arizona and Colorado, for the majority; if Biden wins, the Democrats probably need only two more.

“Probably” because there is enough time for races not mentioned here to shift and change the calculus.

[Tiny]

My guesses were taken straight off of predictit.org's web site. This is a betting site. I think that's a better indicator than polls, as people are actually risking their money.

Back when we placed our bets, based on predictit.org, Biden would end up with around 335 electoral votes if he won all the states where the betting odds were in his favor. Trump would appear to be closing the gap, as now it would be 305 for Biden and 233 for Trump. Here's the state map:

https://www.predictit.org/

The Senate has gone the other way, slightly. There's another link, on predictit's web site, "Click to see Predictit's Senate Map", you can click if interested.

When I made my guess, based on predictit.org, you'd predict we'd end up with 49 Republicans and 51 Democrats (including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats). Right now (and this may change by the time you look at it, as both Georgia elections are very close to 50/50), it would be 48 Republicans and 52 Democrats.

The Georgia special election from what I'm reading may be problematic for people who want to see Republicans win the Senate, like me. You have two Republicans and one Democrat vying in the special election. The two top vote getters will go to a run off. The problem, the two Republicans are tearing each other apart. One is veering to the far right, having gotten into bed with QAnon-supporting congressional candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene. This has a good chance of ending up like Alabama last time around, where a Democrat slips in and wins.

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by Tiny

My guesses were taken straight off of predictit.org's web site. This is a betting site. I think that's a better indicator than polls, as people are actually risking their money.

The problem with that logic is that it's based on conventional wisdom, not necessarily actual subject matter expertise. Most of the people placing bets are exposed to the Mainstream media polls which more than a week out from the election are designed to influence votes not predict them. Hence the "always tightening" last week changes to the polling.

I prefer more common sense predictors that are either proxies or leading indicators.Everything I see including the campaigns last minute schedules tells me Trump is going to win... and I'm starting to suspect that it's going to be far outside the margin of Fraud for the Democrats to steal.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by texassapper

The problem with that logic is that it's based on conventional wisdom, not necessarily actual subject matter expertise. Most of the people placing bets are exposed to the Mainstream media polls which more than a week out from the election are designed to influence votes not predict them. Hence the "always tightening" last week changes to the polling.

I prefer more common sense predictors that are either proxies or leading indicators.Everything I see including the campaigns last minute schedules tells me Trump is going to win... and I'm starting to suspect that it's going to be far outside the margin of Fraud for the Democrats to steal.

The betting sites actually are giving Trump a higher probability of winning than what statisticians using polling data are coming up with. Nate Silver, the most widely quoted, is currently giving Trump an 11% probability of winning the 2020 election. He gave Trump a 28.6% probability of winning in 2016.

Predictit.org gives Trump a 38% probability of winning. The bookmakers in London, who I'd trust more because that "market" is larger than Predictit's and probably not as subject to the MSM influence you mentioned, are giving Trump a 35% shot.

Here are some links if interested,

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...020_president/

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ntial-election

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by texassapper

The problem with that logic is that it's based on conventional wisdom, not necessarily actual subject matter expertise. Most of the people placing bets are exposed to the Mainstream media polls which more than a week out from the election are designed to influence votes not predict them. Hence the "always tightening" last week changes to the polling.

I prefer more common sense predictors that are either proxies or leading indicators.Everything I see including the campaigns last minute schedules tells me Trump is going to win... and I'm starting to suspect that it's going to be far outside the margin of Fraud for the Democrats to steal.

Could you go into detail as to what your "common sense predictors" are?

And what states do you see Trump winning in 2020 that he lost in 2016?

[rexdutchman]

Polls "shit you mean hillary didnt win "

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Republicans running for Senate in 2020:
There are twenty-three Republican-held Senate seats up for election in 2020:
Dan Sullivan, Alaska Winner
Martha McSally, Arizona Winner
Tom Cotton, Arkansas Winner
Cory Gardner, Colorado Winner
David Perdue, Georgia Winner
Kelly Loeffler, Georgia Lose to Raphael Warnock
Jim Risch, Idaho Winner
Joni Ernst, Iowa Winner
Roger Marshall, Kansas Winner
Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Winner
Bill Cassidy, Louisiana Winner
Susan Collins, Maine Winner
Cindy Hyde-Smith, Mississippi Winner
Steve Daines, Montana Winner
Ben Sasse, Nebraska Winner
Thom Tillis, North Carolina Winner
Jim Inhofe, Oklahoma Winner
Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Winner
Mike Rounds, South Dakota Winner
Bill Hagerty, Tennessee Winner
John Cornyn, Texas Winner
Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia Winner
Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming Winner

Democrats running for Senate in 2020:
There are twelve Democrat-held Senate seats that will be up for election in 2020:
Doug Jones, Alabama Lose to Tommy Tuberville
Chris Coons, Delaware Winner
Dick Durbin, Illinois Winner
Ed Markey, Massachusetts Winner
Gary Peters, Michigan Lose to John James
Tina Smith, Minnesota Lose to Jason Lewis
Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire Winner
Cory Booker, New Jersey Winner
Ben Ray Lujan, New Mexico Winner
Jeff Merkley, Oregon Winner
Jack Reed, Rhode Island Winner
Mark Warner, Virginia Winner

My prediction: Republicans gain two seats in the Senate. 55-45

Electoral college: Trump 280 votes, Biden 258
Popular vote: Trump +4%