Why Trump will get a second term

[Jackie S]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

FiveThirtyEight is the best source in my opinion since it summarizes ALL approval polls done. If you look at the ratings of the various polls, Rasmussen rates a "C+" since it actually
has a very poor history of predicting races (78%).

No I do not remember a poll showing Clinton with a 12% lead over Trump 10 days before the 2016 election.

5 weeks from today we'll see who is right and who is wrong. What are your predictions?

Predictions:

Beto will get about 44 percent of the vote. Cruz will get a minor scare but will coast through.
President Trump, by shear force of his personality, will increase the republican turnout throughout the Country.
The Republicans will actually pick up at least 3 seats in the Senate.
The House will be closer, but the Republicans will hold on to a slim majority, possibly by 5 votes.
RBG will retire before the summer, if not die outright. President Trump will nominate Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court.
Governor Abbot will appoint Texas Lt Governor Dan Patrick to take Cruz's seat.

Not predictions, but more what I hope will happen.

One thing that might change the SCOTUS pick would be the need to name a woman. That would be Amy Coney Barret.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

Predictions:

Beto will get about 44 percent of the vote. Cruz will get a minor scare but will coast through.
President Trump, by shear force of his personality, will increase the republican turnout throughout the Country.
The Republicans will actually pick up at least 3 seats in the Senate.
The House will be closer, but the Republicans will hold on to a slim majority, possibly by 5 votes.
RBG will retire before the summer, if not die outright. President Trump will nominate Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court.
Governor Abbot will appoint Texas Lt Governor Dan Patrick to take Cruz's seat.

Not predictions, but more what I hope will happen.

sounds good to me! bahahaa

could you imagine the confirmation hearings for Cruz? lol. if you think Kavanaugh has been testy, Cruz will make that gay dork Peter Strzok look like his hearing was Sunday School.

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

FiveThirtyEight is the best source in my opinion since it summarizes ALL approval polls done. If you look at the ratings of the various polls, Rasmussen rates a "C+" since it actually
has a very poor history of predicting races (78%).

No I do not remember a poll showing Clinton with a 12% lead over Trump 10 days before the 2016 election.

5 weeks from today we'll see who is right and who is wrong. What are your predictions?

You do not remember the poll showing Clinton with a 12% lead over. Really? You either have a very short memory or a very selective one. You don't remember the back and forth that we had over that poll 2 years ago where you first tried to argue that this poll was not oversampled with Democrats and then a did a near 180 when you said all polls were oversampled. Does any of this jog your memory, Speed Racer or do I need to cite and pull up that thread?

You say Rasmussen has a poor history of predicting races, citing a 78%. Where did you get this figure? And why aren't you citing the prediction rate of the polls that you are relying on? No polling outfit is going to predict every race accurately. Regardless of what you think, Rasmussen Reports has a pretty good track record. Are they always right, no of course not, but show me who is.

The 538 that you like adjusts other polls, using what they call "house effects" to make their adjustments. They downgraded a Rasmussen poll showing a Trump approval rate of 50% down to 45% and only upgraded a Gallop poll showing Trump's approval rate of 43 to only 44%. Does this sound fair? I don't think so. Yet, this is the polling outfit that you prefer. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...roval-ratings/

I found another current poll from the Hill, which is not exactly pro Trump, showing Trump with a 46% approval rate. https://thehill.com/business-a-lobby...6-percent-poll

You have consistently understated Trump's popularity in your posts. At least now I know where you get your information, from a polling outfit that adjusts other polls using what the call "house effects" to make their adjustments. And they (538 with Nate Silver) were wrong on their prediction of the last presidential election. But hearing you talk, its only Rasmussen who has a very poor history of predicting elections. Lol!

[garhkal]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

The answer is yes!! After this shit show with Kavanaugh I don't see how any red blooded American male could vote Democrat.

If you do - then take some advice - this shit can happen to you too and that should scare the living daylights out of you.

BUT with the alternative being to vote for RINOS< is it YET another instance of "You need to hold your nose and vote R, or else"??

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trump supporters like you are blind to his faults. There are valid reasons why Trump with all his successes in the economy can barely break a 40% approval rating.

Just like never trumpers, won't vote for him, no matter HOW good he does for the country.


And maybe why we don't see that higher an approval rating is HOW they are coming up with it?? WHO are they polling?

Originally Posted by Jackie S

Predictions:

Beto will get about 44 percent of the vote. Cruz will get a minor scare but will coast through.
President Trump, by shear force of his personality, will increase the republican turnout throughout the Country.
The Republicans will actually pick up at least 3 seats in the Senate.
The House will be closer, but the Republicans will hold on to a slim majority, possibly by 5 votes.
RBG will retire before the summer, if not die outright. President Trump will nominate Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court.
Governor Abbot will appoint Texas Lt Governor Dan Patrick to take Cruz's seat.

Not predictions, but more what I hope will happen.

One thing that might change the SCOTUS pick would be the need to name a woman. That would be Amy Coney Barret.

I'd love to see those predictions of yours, come true.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

Predictions:

Beto will get about 44 percent of the vote. Cruz will get a minor scare but will coast through.
President Trump, by shear force of his personality, will increase the republican turnout throughout the Country.
The Republicans will actually pick up at least 3 seats in the Senate.
The House will be closer, but the Republicans will hold on to a slim majority, possibly by 5 votes.
RBG will retire before the summer, if not die outright. President Trump will nominate Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court.
Governor Abbot will appoint Texas Lt Governor Dan Patrick to take Cruz's seat.

Not predictions, but more what I hope will happen.

One thing that might change the SCOTUS pick would be the need to name a woman. That would be Amy Coney Barret.

Thanks for the post. I disagree with your "hopes" for the House and Senate but that's what makes the upcoming elections more interesting.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by NiceGuy53

You do not remember the poll showing Clinton with a 12% lead over. Really? You either have a very short memory or a very selective one. You don't remember the back and forth that we had over that poll 2 years ago where you first tried to argue that this poll was not oversampled with Democrats and then a did a near 180 when you said all polls were oversampled. Does any of this jog your memory, Speed Racer or do I need to cite and pull up that thread?

You say Rasmussen has a poor history of predicting races, citing a 78%. Where did you get this figure? And why aren't you citing the prediction rate of the polls that you are relying on? No polling outfit is going to predict every race accurately. Regardless of what you think, Rasmussen Reports has a pretty good track record. Are they always right, no of course not, but show me who is.

The 538 that you like adjusts other polls, using what they call "house effects" to make their adjustments. They downgraded a Rasmussen poll showing a Trump approval rate of 50% down to 45% and only upgraded a Gallop poll showing Trump's approval rate of 43 to only 44%. Does this sound fair? I don't think so. Yet, this is the polling outfit that you prefer. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...roval-ratings/

I found another current poll from the Hill, which is not exactly pro Trump, showing Trump with a 46% approval rate. https://thehill.com/business-a-lobby...6-percent-poll

You have consistently understated Trump's popularity in your posts. At least now I know where you get your information, from a polling outfit that adjusts other polls using what the call "house effects" to make their adjustments. And they (538 with Nate Silver) were wrong on their prediction of the last presidential election. But hearing you talk, its only Rasmussen who has a very poor history of predicting elections. Lol!

I remember several discussions on polls 2 years ago but you seem to know better than I do exactly what I said. To me it is not important. Today is.

I supplied you with the link to FiveThirtyEight in my earlier post:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

If you took the time to look at it you would see the dates of polls taken, the results of those polls, and a column titled "Grade", under which each pollster is given a grade based on their accuracy over the years. When you click on the grade, details are given.

I did not mention the "Adjusted" column at all. YouGov has Trump at 39% approval, Ipsos at 40%, Quinnipiac at 41%, Gallup at 42% without using the "Adjusted" column. The reason I prefer this site is that it gives a summary of ALL polls, and does not cherry pick one based on one's political leanings.

The survey by "The Hill" is another data point that should be taken into consideration when reviewing polls.

We've discussed the inaccuracy of the polls in 2016 several times, too many times in my opinion. Most pollsters got it wrong in 2016 for whatever reasons at the POTUS level. As I posted in a thread, Larry Sabato definitely missed on his projection for POTUS but was off by only 6 out of 435 in his predictions for the House in 2016.

I find it entertaining to discuss issues like this. My goal, unlike your's, is not to prove others wrong in their opinions but rather to discuss the issues.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by garhkal

Just like never trumpers, won't vote for him, no matter HOW good he does for the country.

Trump has improved the economy.

He has done nothing on healthcare.
He has done little to nothing on immigration. Even with a Republican congress he can't get money for his wall.
His tax reform package benefited primarily the rich and corporations with little benefit given to the low-end taxpayers.

If you think Trump's approval rating is low in this country. you should review his approval ratings on several issues outside the U.S.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/10/01/...ng-key-allies/

[rexdutchman]

Just look at whats happening with Kav right there is why the dim-tarts have issues

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I remember several discussions on polls 2 years ago but you seem to know better than I do exactly what I said. To me it is not important. Today is.

I supplied you with the link to FiveThirtyEight in my earlier post:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

If you took the time to look at it you would see the dates of polls taken, the results of those polls, and a column titled "Grade", under which each pollster is given a grade based on their accuracy over the years. When you click on the grade, details are given.

I did not mention the "Adjusted" column at all. YouGov has Trump at 39% approval, Ipsos at 40%, Quinnipiac at 41%, Gallup at 42% without using the "Adjusted" column. The reason I prefer this site is that it gives a summary of ALL polls, and does not cherry pick one based on one's political leanings.

The survey by "The Hill" is another data point that should be taken into consideration when reviewing polls.

We've discussed the inaccuracy of the polls in 2016 several times, too many times in my opinion. Most pollsters got it wrong in 2016 for whatever reasons at the POTUS level. As I posted in a thread, Larry Sabato definitely missed on his projection for POTUS but was off by only 6 out of 435 in his predictions for the House in 2016.

I find it entertaining to discuss issues like this. My goal, unlike your's, is not to prove others wrong in their opinions but rather to discuss the issues.

Even The Real Clear Politics average of all recent major polls shows Trump's approval rating at 44%. This is 2.1% higher than 538's average of 41.9% after they make their adjustments of the other polls. So Yes I still have issues with 538's adjustments to some subjective trendline they have set, or "house effects" as they call it. https://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

And your self serving statement that you are here to just discuss the issues and not try to prove anyone wrong is laughable. But you are certainly entitled to believe whatever you want.

[rexdutchman]

Y'know, sometimes a staunch conservative is just another schmuck LIBERAL who's been mugged

[Guest050619-1]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

FiveThirtyEight is the best source in my opinion since it summarizes ALL approval polls done. If you look at the ratings of the various polls, Rasmussen rates a "C+" since it actually
has a very poor history of predicting races (78%).

No I do not remember a poll showing Clinton with a 12% lead over Trump 10 days before the 2016 election.

5 weeks from today we'll see who is right and who is wrong. What are your predictions?

FiveThirtyEight.....owned by ABC News (The Walt Disney Company)…...yeah, I'm trusting the information that comes outa that polling website...

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trump has improved the economy.

He has done nothing on healthcare.

he eliminated the Obama mandatory tax.

He has done little to nothing on immigration. Even with a Republican congress he can't get money for his wall.

the Wall is being expanded as we speak. Recall that G Bushie got funding for it. Trump has money to move with.

His tax reform package benefited primarily the rich and corporations with little benefit given to the low-end taxpayers.

how low? those below the arbitrary poverty line don't pay any taxes. they get Gov hand outs.

If you think Trump's approval rating is low in this country. you should review his approval ratings on several issues outside the U.S.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/10/01/...ng-key-allies/

of course they don't like Trump for cutting off their US taxpayer gravy train. Or making them support NATO. Or making Trade fair.

No. they don't like that at all!!!!

but they don't vote here. so who gives a fuck?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

of course they don't like Trump for cutting off their US taxpayer gravy train. Or making them support NATO. Or making Trade fair.

No. they don't like that at all!!!!

but they don't vote here. so who gives a fuck?

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
Trump has improved the economy.

He has done nothing on healthcare.

he eliminated the Obama mandatory tax.

He has done little to nothing on immigration. Even with a Republican congress he can't get money for his wall.

the Wall is being expanded as we speak. Recall that G Bushie got funding for it. Trump has money to move with.

His tax reform package benefited primarily the rich and corporations with little benefit given to the low-end taxpayers.

how low? those below the arbitrary poverty line don't pay any taxes. they get Gov hand outs.

If you think Trump's approval rating is low in this country. you should review his approval ratings on several issues outside the U.S.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/10/01/...ng-key-allies/



Depending on one's POV, eliminating the mandatory tax was a positive or negative. Whatever one believes, it was minor compared to what was promised by Trump -- a total repeal and replace of Obamacare.

The "wall", as defined by the prototypes that have been built, has not been started.

"The short answer is that the omnibus bill funds some new fencing, though far less than Trump had hoped it would. The new barriers are also not the kind of solid, concrete wall Trump once described during the campaign. Nor is it anything like any of the prototypes Trump visited in mid-March.

Trump and others in his administration are calling what is going up “the wall.” The omnibus describes it as “fencing.” Some may say that’s a matter of semantics, and indeed many officials and journalists use the terms interchangeably. But Trump has often insisted there is a difference between a fence and wall, and that he’d be building a wall.

Finally, Trump officials say the omnibus will fund about 100 miles of “new” wall, but most of that is replacing existing border fencing deemed inadequate or dilapidated."


Regarding taxes, I've pointed out several times that the people in the middle of the middle class and below, solid taxpayers, will receive at most an estimated 1.6% increase in their after tax income. Those making $500k-1 million will receive a 4.3% increase in their after tax income. Fair?

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/19/57175...e-middle-class

"So who gives a fuck?" The U.S. does not operate in a vacuum. We trade with virtually every country in the world. We spend time in other countries and people from other countries spend time here. It is to our advantage to have positive relations with other countries. Sorry if you feel differently.

[85degreebakery]

because the house and the senate will be all blue

[Austin Ellen]

Speedracer, Trump has only been in office less then 2 years and he's had to fight not only the dems but members of his own party every single day. Give him time- more great things are coming.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
Trump has improved the economy.

He has done nothing on healthcare.

he eliminated the Obama mandatory tax.

He has done little to nothing on immigration. Even with a Republican congress he can't get money for his wall.

the Wall is being expanded as we speak. Recall that G Bushie got funding for it. Trump has money to move with.

His tax reform package benefited primarily the rich and corporations with little benefit given to the low-end taxpayers.

how low? those below the arbitrary poverty line don't pay any taxes. they get Gov hand outs.

If you think Trump's approval rating is low in this country. you should review his approval ratings on several issues outside the U.S.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2018/10/01/...ng-key-allies/



Depending on one's POV, eliminating the mandatory tax was a positive or negative. Whatever one believes, it was minor compared to what was promised by Trump -- a total repeal and replace of Obamacare.

The "wall", as defined by the prototypes that have been built, has not been started.

"The short answer is that the omnibus bill funds some new fencing, though far less than Trump had hoped it would. The new barriers are also not the kind of solid, concrete wall Trump once described during the campaign. Nor is it anything like any of the prototypes Trump visited in mid-March.

Trump and others in his administration are calling what is going up “the wall.” The omnibus describes it as “fencing.” Some may say that’s a matter of semantics, and indeed many officials and journalists use the terms interchangeably. But Trump has often insisted there is a difference between a fence and wall, and that he’d be building a wall.

Finally, Trump officials say the omnibus will fund about 100 miles of “new” wall, but most of that is replacing existing border fencing deemed inadequate or dilapidated."


Regarding taxes, I've pointed out several times that the people in the middle of the middle class and below, solid taxpayers, will receive at most an estimated 1.6% increase in their after tax income. Those making $500k-1 million will receive a 4.3% increase in their after tax income. Fair?

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/19/57175...e-middle-class

"So who gives a fuck?" The U.S. does not operate in a vacuum. We trade with virtually every country in the world. We spend time in other countries and people from other countries spend time here. It is to our advantage to have positive relations with other countries. Sorry if you feel differently.