IHME COVID-19 Model

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

We may be off by one day. FF, is 22 the actual deaths on the 4th or the 5th?



For each day, the first number is the forecast, prepared on April 1, and the second number is actual deaths on that day.

Yes, I get that, I was just confused by actuals being posted for the 5th already.

Your question clarifies what I was asking.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

We may be off by one day. FF, is 22 the actual deaths on the 4th or the 5th?



For each day, the first number is the forecast, prepared on April 1, and the second number is actual deaths on that day.

Yes, I guess since they report the deaths the next day, I'm ahead by one day.

So, what gets reported tomorrow is the deaths on April 5th.

I'll revise it after noon manana.

[BlisswithKriss]

Attachment 871862

Looks like Trump May have the virus after all..

He’s been acting weird lately

Like he’s on drugs

Let the house ferret Pence give him a dose of Chloroquine

That will do the trick...terminal,

[gnadfly]

FF, link to your source?

[BlisswithKriss]

[ATTACH]Attachment 871864[/ATTACH]

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by BlisswithKriss

Attachment 871864

you know you could have uploaded that to your gallery and image linked it.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

FF, link to your source?

I think this is what the White House is using so it is my source.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

[Tiny]

The IHME model has just been updated with deaths through April 4. The total estimated deaths for the USA has dropped since the last update, from around 93,765 to 81,766. The really good news for many of us, their forecast for Texas has dropped from 6392 deaths to 2025! Why? My guess is data from Italy and Spain that indicate the curves are going the other way there, and Abbott's implementation of what they define as a stay at home order on April 2.

If this sticks, we'll have plenty of ICU beds and ventilators. And I'll be happy to say to many of you that you were right and I was wrong.

[gnadfly]

Yeah, but I'm reading that the number does not take into account the predicted "reinfection" in September.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

Yeah, but I'm reading that the number does not take into account the predicted "reinfection" in September.

I would think that's correct. They use a curve fitting model and don't have the data to forecast a second wave.

Their estimate is through August 4, and they don't show any deaths occurring after June 21. It will be great if this ends in June, although you'd suspect this will be with us at least to some extent until we have a vaccine.

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The IHME model has just been updated with deaths through April 4. The total estimated deaths for the USA has dropped since the last update, from around 93,765 to 81,766. The really good news for many of us, their forecast for Texas has dropped from 6392 deaths to 2025! Why? My guess is data from Italy and Spain that indicate the curves are going the other way there, and Abbott's implementation of what they define as a stay at home order on April 2.

If this sticks, we'll have plenty of ICU beds and ventilators. And I'll be happy to say to many of you that you were right and I was wrong.

It is certainly looking like good news today!!

I could see how a Sunday reporting day might be imperfect so let's hope this good trend continues through tomorrow and the rest of the week.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

...

I thought the next 10 days were supposed to be "peak."
Then again, I thought they said, wearing masks don't help much.
Is CT running the CDC?

Are they using the same model to predict global warming?

I'd like to see a state by state number of deaths per day (all deaths) compared to the same time last year. My guess would be this years deaths are down because of fewer traffic accidents.

[Tiny]

http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...-starting-peak

This is the forecast for their April 5 update. They now have the peak occurring on April 20 at 72 deaths per day.

April 5th 23
April 6th 25
April 7th 29
April 8th 33
April 9th 37
April 10th 39
April 11th 47
April 12th 46
April 13th 54
April 14th 57
April 15th 59
April 16th 58
April 17th 65
April 18th 70
April 19th 71
April 20th 72

Last death: May 31, 2020
Total deaths: 2025

Reasons for changes (not specific to Texas):

http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...-starting-peak

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

I thought the next 10 days were supposed to be "peak."
Then again, I thought they said, wearing masks don't help much.
Is CT running the CDC?

Are they using the same model to predict global warming?

I'd like to see a state by state number of deaths per day (all deaths) compared to the same time last year. My guess would be this years deaths are down because of fewer traffic accidents.

I think the regular flu is down, also.