Can't Democrats Admit That Liberating 10's Of Millions From Evil Dictators Is A Good Thing?

[Jacuzzme]

Originally Posted by Turner2099

What's your long-term solution to the declining US birthrate?

Family friendly legislation, á la Hungary, for starters.

[Turner2099]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Family friendly legislation, á la Hungary, for starters.

Interesting choice. Trump's actually had Orban over for dinner at his house.

Under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian government promotes a staunchly nativist, anti-immigration platform that focuses on preserving a culturally and ethnically homogeneous "Christian Hungary". This ideology often aligns with far-right, pro-white narratives, emphasizing the protection of European, white, and Christian identity against migration.

At a lavish party to mark US independence day in Budapest, Orbán told guests that finally, with the accession of Donald Trump, there was an “overlap of values” between the US and Hungary.

**A useful way to think about it:**
Family policies can **raise fertility a little (≈0.1–0.3 children per woman)** but **no developed country has pushed it back to 2.1 using incentives alone.**

From ChatGPT:

Is Hungary's Family Friendly Legislation Working?

Hungary is often cited as the **most aggressive pro-family policy experiment in Europe**, especially under Viktor Orbán. The short answer is: **it partly worked for a while, but it has not solved the demographic problem**, and recent data suggests the effect may be fading.

Here’s the evidence from both supporters and critics.

## 1. What Hungary actually did

Since about **2010**, Hungary introduced a large package of incentives to encourage childbirth, including:

* Large **tax credits for families with children**
* **Lifetime income-tax exemptions** for mothers with multiple children
* **Subsidized housing loans** for couples who promise to have children
* Grants for **large family cars**
* Expanded **parental leave and childcare support**

Hungary spends **around 3–5% of GDP on family policy**, one of the highest levels in Europe. ([OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich][1])

# 2. Early results looked promising

In the first decade, several indicators improved.

* Fertility rate rose from **1.23 children per woman in 2011** to about **1.59 in 2021**. ([Hungarian Conservative][2])
* Marriages increased significantly and divorces fell. ([Hungarian Conservative][3])
* Abortions roughly **halved since 2011**. ([Hungarian Conservative][2])

That increase was actually **one of the largest fertility rises in the EU** during that period. ([Hungarian Conservative][3])

So in the **2010s**, the policies did appear to **move the needle somewhat**.

# 3. But the trend reversed again

Since the early 2020s, births have been falling again:

* Fertility rate dropped to about **1.38 in 2024**. ([Statista][4])
* Births fell to **77,500 in 2024**, a record low. ([Bloomberg.com][5])
* The decline has continued for several years. ([Bloomberg.com][5])

That’s still **far below the replacement level of 2.1** children per woman needed to maintain population size.

# 4. Why the policies have limited effect

Researchers usually cite several reasons:

### 1. Incentives shift timing, not total births

Some couples simply **have children earlier to get benefits**, rather than having more children overall.

### 2. Structural factors dominate

Across Europe, birth decisions are driven by factors such as:

* housing costs
* career priorities
* delayed marriage
* uncertainty about the future

These trends affect Hungary too. ([The Washington Post][6])

### 3. Cash benefits vs. services

Hungary emphasizes **cash transfers** rather than childcare services, unlike Nordic countries. ([OSW Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich][1])
Some economists think affordable childcare and work-life balance matter more.

### 4. Fewer women of child-bearing age

Hungary also has **demographic momentum** working against it: the number of women aged 20–39 has fallen sharply. ([Hungary Today][7])

# 5. Overall verdict from demographers

Most experts conclude something like this:

**What worked**

* Increased marriage rates
* Slight fertility bump in the 2010s
* Better financial support for families

**What didn’t**

* Long-term fertility recovery
* Reaching replacement birth rates
* Stopping population decline

In short: **Hungary slowed the decline temporarily, but didn’t reverse it.**

✅ **A useful way to think about it:**
Family policies can **raise fertility a little (≈0.1–0.3 children per woman)** but **no developed country has pushed it back to 2.1 using incentives alone.**

[1]: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje...ce=chatgpt.com "Hungary’s ongoing demographic decline: an increase in birth rates is the only hope | OSW Centre for Eastern Studies"
[2]:https://www.hungarianconservative.co...ce=chatgpt.com "Fighting a Bleak Future? — Hungary’s Response to Demographic Challenges - Hungarian Conservative"
[3]:https://www.hungarianconservative.co...ce=chatgpt.com "Results of Hungary’s Family Policy over the Past Thirteen Years - Hungarian Conservative"
[4]: https://www.statista.com/topics/8478...ce=chatgpt.com "Demographics of Hungary - statistics & facts | Statista"
[5]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ce=chatgpt.com "Hungary Births Drop to Record in Blow to Orban’s Family Policies - Bloomberg"
[6]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ce=chatgpt.com "Europe is panicking over its shrinking population"
[7]: https://hungarytoday.hu/demographic-...ce=chatgpt.com "Demographic Turnaround is Steady"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ime%20minister.

[elghund]

Still waiting to see liberated people…all I see is people in the middle of an ass hat of a war, expanding across the whole middle east …….

elg……

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by HoHound

Can't Democrats Admit That Liberating 10's Of Millions From Evil Dictators Is A Good Thing?

Trump is liberating 10's of millions from evil dictators and all I gotta do is pay 50 cents per gallon more at the pump. Best money I ever spent.

That sounds a lot like George W. Bush, after he figured out there were no WMD's. The U.S. ended up blowing trillions of dollars. And there were 4 to 5 million deaths by one estimate as a result of post 9/11 wars. That's not including the current batch from Iran.

I guess Rand Paul and I agree with the Democrats.

Maybe I'm being harsh. There's still a chance this will end up looking like George H. W. Bush's incursion into Kuwait.

And there is an argument that Trump's thinking strategically and long term. We're involved in The Great Game of the 21st century, a struggle to control oil resources of the Middle East and central Asia. Please see this for an excellent summary, https://www.zinebriboua.com/p/the-ir...dRedirect=true

Still, I think this is a mistake.