In my view, the Trump economy is quite a mixed bag. A few unambiguously good things: For example, some regulatory relief (at least relative to the status quo-ante), a boost in tax-based incentives to business capex, the cessation of entertaining "green new deal" fantasies and deep-sixing various impediments to domestic energy production.
But there are some clear negatives: For instance, chaotic tariff policy implementation leading to planning uncertainty which affects smaller firms much more than larger ones, and the continuation of a frighteningly unserious attitude about our disastrous debt-accumulation trajectory.
The extent to which the current (and near future) headline GDP numbers are (or will be) a function of massive spending on data centers and other AI or AI-adjacent spending is uncertain, but you might note new estimates of $650 billion for this calendar year. (That's 2+% of GDP! For how long can that be sustained?)
My take: In other words, the current economy may be "muddling through" (As John Mauldin likes to put it), but it's hardly anything to write home about.
It was mentioned in several earlier posts that the skyrocketing gold price largely arises from severe angst about the US's (and indeed the world's) financial condition.
Just a couple of relevant observations:
Yes, there are certainly concerns about the long-term status of the dollar as a global "anchor" and the risk that it will rapidly decline further in value, or that the US will experience anything resembling hyperinflation. People occasionally get a bit carried away with what we sometimes call "extrapolation bias" and buy into a lot of "doom porn" scenarios? (Any of you old-timers remember Howard Ruff?)
Here is a clip from the sort of movie I've seen before:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precious_b
But i'd lay odds that if you invested $100 day 1 Wall Street opened and $100 in gold, the Stock Market would have a better return on investment.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CPT Savajo
You would lay odds and lose your bet in a simulation ran a billion times over. Such a bet wouldn't be fair from 1834-1933 because gold was pegged at $20, but if we started the bet at 1974 when the American slaves (every citizen living in the US at the time) were allowed to own gold again as a privlege granted by government gold would clearly be the winner.
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Really? Where did you read that? (Actually, since it became legal for Americans to own gold bullion just over 51 years ago, the S&P 500 has vastly outperformed gold. And that's not even a close call!)
