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The Political Forum Discuss anything related to politics in this forum. World politics, US Politics, State and Local.

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Old 04-09-2020, 06:38 AM   #31
SpeedRacerXXX
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Originally Posted by bambino View Post
Not too bad. The Republicans picked up seats in the Senate. Obama lost both chambers.
Republicans lost 40 House seats.

Republicans lost 7 governor's seats.

Democrats picked up 350 state legislature seats. Turned several states blue and others from red to purple.

Republicans had the chance to win Senate seats in Montana, Arizona, and West Virginia and failed to do so. 25 of the 33 seats up for election were held by Democrats, many in states Trump won easily in 2016.

Yes, 2010 was a huge loss for Democrats. And 2018 was a huge loss for Republicans.

The 2020 Senate elections favor Democrats. I predict a Senate gain of at least 1 for the Democrats. What is your prediction?
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:53 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid View Post
how did all those polls work out for Hillary on election day?


BAHHAAHAA
We've been through that many times. Polls predicted the popular vote perfectly. Polls taken in the days just prior to the elections showed a Trump surge. He was ahead in Michigan and within the margin of error in Pennsylvania after trailing badly. Only Wisconsin missed. Most other states were predicted correctly.

Polls in 2018 midterms were near perfect in both the House and Senate predictions.

Again, you seem to forget how razor thin Trump's victory was in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida. NH was the only state Clinton lost by such a close margin.

I realize that Trump supporters have very little positive to point to regarding his reelection odds at this point in time. It may certainly change. I love it when Trump is in front of the cameras, as he was yesterday, and refers to Biden as "Sleepy Joe". A few more votes lost by those undecided voters who do not like such statements.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:59 AM   #33
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Doesn’t take into account motivation to vote. Most Trump supporters are ready to crawl over broken glass to vote. Biden’s support is pretty meh, double meh for young people and triple for the Bernouts.
And what motivated Democrats to turn out in record numbers in the 2018 midterms and win decisive victories? A dislike for Trump. And they will turn out again in 2020. Enough to elect Biden? We shall see.
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:15 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by Chung Tran View Post
and yet Biden leads Trump by 8 points today. imagine the drubbing if the Democrats put up a good candidate.
You mean like Hillary?

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Originally Posted by Revenant View Post
Your post is feeble at best.

I'm not a Biden fan, but let's try to be fair and reasonable, okay?
.....
You first. I don't know anyone who voted for Trump because he's a moral paragon. Talk about feeble.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:37 AM   #35
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Or because theys were, to be fair.
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:41 PM   #36
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You first. I don't know anyone who voted for Trump because he's a moral paragon. Talk about feeble.
Try again.

To be more specific, review some of the endorsements given to Trump by the evangelical pastors and other Bible thumper types. Plenty of rubes have talked about God sending Trump to "save" America.

I cringe when I read their fellatial flattery.
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:54 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
Republicans lost 40 House seats.

Republicans lost 7 governor's seats.

Democrats picked up 350 state legislature seats. Turned several states blue and others from red to purple.

Republicans had the chance to win Senate seats in Montana, Arizona, and West Virginia and failed to do so. 25 of the 33 seats up for election were held by Democrats, many in states Trump won easily in 2016.

Yes, 2010 was a huge loss for Democrats. And 2018 was a huge loss for Republicans.

The 2020 Senate elections favor Democrats. I predict a Senate gain of at least 1 for the Democrats. What is your prediction?
My prediction is Trump will win. Are you going to take the bet?
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:59 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Revenant View Post
Try again.

To be more specific, review some of the endorsements given to Trump by the evangelical pastors and other Bible thumper types. Plenty of rubes have talked about God sending Trump to "save" America.

I cringe when I read their fellatial flattery.
Links? The “bible thumper types” voted for him to overturn Roe vs Wade.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:33 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by Levianon17 View Post
What do you think would be different right now if Biden was President? Let me give you a hint, nothing.
Oh, you are wrong about that.

If the left were in power, they would never let a good catastrophe go to waste.

I dislike Trump, but his election saved our economy, our freedom, our society, and our constitution. I shudder at the thought of the alternative.
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Old 04-09-2020, 06:39 PM   #40
eccielover
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
Republicans lost 40 House seats.

Republicans lost 7 governor's seats.

Democrats picked up 350 state legislature seats. Turned several states blue and others from red to purple.

Republicans had the chance to win Senate seats in Montana, Arizona, and West Virginia and failed to do so. 25 of the 33 seats up for election were held by Democrats, many in states Trump won easily in 2016.

Yes, 2010 was a huge loss for Democrats. And 2018 was a huge loss for Republicans.

The 2020 Senate elections favor Democrats. I predict a Senate gain of at least 1 for the Democrats. What is your prediction?
I differ with you on the 2018 being a "huge" loss for Republicans. It was about an average loss for a first term POTUS in their mid-term.

Senate seats are rarely picked up during those types of mid-terms and Trump managed it.

The House seat loss was on the roughly average side.

The governor flips was on average normal and so were the legislature seats.

At the end of the day. Republicans still had the POTUS obviously, The Senate by a greater margin, and majorities in a far larger number of State and Local governments than Democrats.

Obama in 2010 had nearly historic losses across the board.

Not a good comparison when using the word "huge".
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Old 04-09-2020, 07:23 PM   #41
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President Trump is gaining more support every day because the Democrats seem to be hell bent on nominating a candidate who is one step away from drooling in public.
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Old 04-10-2020, 06:53 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by bambino View Post
My prediction is Trump will win. Are you going to take the bet?
When the time comes I will make a prediction on the presidential race. The time has not yet come.

Are you as sure on Trump winning the race as you were in 2018 that Republicans would hold the House?
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Old 04-10-2020, 07:10 AM   #43
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I differ with you on the 2018 being a "huge" loss for Republicans. It was about an average loss for a first term POTUS in their mid-term.

Senate seats are rarely picked up during those types of mid-terms and Trump managed it.

The House seat loss was on the roughly average side.

The governor flips was on average normal and so were the legislature seats.

At the end of the day. Republicans still had the POTUS obviously, The Senate by a greater margin, and majorities in a far larger number of State and Local governments than Democrats.

Obama in 2010 had nearly historic losses across the board.

Not a good comparison when using the word "huge".
With all due respect since I consider you one of the more astute individuals on this forum, very few outside of diehard Trump supporters believe that Republicans fared better than Democrats in the 2018 midterms.

"Democrats won the House with the largest midterms margin of all time

Democrats took control of the House this year with the largest midterms margin of victory in history, surpassing the previous record of 8.7 million votes in 1974, according to NBC News election data."


https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-e...7ef3f36f4.html

"Make No Mistake, the Midterm Elections Were a Democratic Victory and a Rebuke of Trump"


https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-c...ebuke-of-trump

In my opinion, the 2018 midterms were a "huge" victory for Democrats. The average loss in midtem elections since WWII is 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats. In 2018 the Senate races were heavily weighted against the Democrats so the Republicans picking up 2 seats, as opposed to the 1 I predicted, was totally expected. With the Republicans having to defend far more Senate seats in 2020 than Democrats, it looks likely that Democrats will pick up seats even if Trump is reelected.
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Old 04-10-2020, 07:28 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX View Post
With all due respect since I consider you one of the more astute individuals on this forum, very few outside of diehard Trump supporters believe that Republicans fared better than Democrats in the 2018 midterms.

"Democrats won the House with the largest midterms margin of all time

Democrats took control of the House this year with the largest midterms margin of victory in history, surpassing the previous record of 8.7 million votes in 1974, according to NBC News election data."


https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-e...7ef3f36f4.html

"Make No Mistake, the Midterm Elections Were a Democratic Victory and a Rebuke of Trump"


https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-c...ebuke-of-trump

In my opinion, the 2018 midterms were a "huge" victory for Democrats. The average loss in midtem elections since WWII is 26 House seats and 4 Senate seats. In 2018 the Senate races were heavily weighted against the Democrats so the Republicans picking up 2 seats, as opposed to the 1 I predicted, was totally expected. With the Republicans having to defend far more Senate seats in 2020 than Democrats, it looks likely that Democrats will pick up seats even if Trump is reelected.
Thank you sir for the compliment.

But for 2018, I think we just need to agree to disagree.

The house often swings in the midterm of the first term Potus. It did again. Nothing else majorly changed other than some state flips which also happens during mid-terms.

The popular vote means very little in the end, as can be seen by your reporting of the House margin of victory and then comparing the same to the Senate margin of victory. Dems had supposedly this popular vote record mandate, but didn't pick up anywhere near a record number of House seats. They had a similar popular record vote mandate in the Senate and lost seats. So overall national popular vote is not a good indicator of much of anything.

At the end of the day in 2018, the Dems picked up some momentum, which is rather normal for party not holding the POTUS, but it was far from "huge", in again my opinion.
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