The weekly data showing net exports of 200,000 barrels per day was a fluke. I suspect it was caused by changes in inventories. USA crude oil inventories were the highest they've been in 2018 a couple of weeks ago. You're likely going to see net imports go back to about 2 million barrels per day soon.
In the medium term, in a year or two, the USA may indeed become a net exporter. A lot of it will depend on oil prices. WTF brings up an interesting point,
Quote:
Originally Posted by WTF
Which is it IB....are you cheering for low oil prices that would hurt oil production in this country like you were for the last two weeks or are you now cheering for high oil prices that hurt the average consumer?
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If the price of oil goes to, say, $40 per barrel as a result of OPEC continuing to keep the floodgates open, this will indeed mean the USA won't become a net exporter. The unconventional oil plays in the USA mostly aren't economic at that price.
If the price goes to $70/barrel and stays there, then we will become a significant net exporter.
What's best? IB and Trump would argue $40 per barrel, as that's good for the economy and the consumer. Others would argue $70 per barrel is worth paying if it means we can have energy security. If we're an exporter, the Saudis or Iran or Venezuela can't hold us over a barrel. Remember the Arab oil embargo of 1973 and the 1973 recession. I don't know which argument is better, both sides have good points.
