Lowest Unemployment Since Eisenhower

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

And you right wing nuts will still claim the Biden economy is the worst in history. Oh and that Trump tax cuts are the impetus for this staggeringly highest jobs increases.

Originally Posted by Tiny

From Mertens and Ravn, "A cut in the APITR (average personal income tax rate) raises employment, lowers the unemployment rate, and increases hours worked per worker," and is correlated with higher consumption and investment.

Originally Posted by Tiny

When the government’s taking less of your paycheck, you’re more motivated to work. There’s probably some kind of multiplier effect too, where by leaving more money in the hands of the people to spend on consumption you end up growing employment. That’s something you and TC would understand much better than I do.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Keep more money work more. Makes sense to me...This is consistent with exactly what I suggested with the Blackman Tax Plan (BTP)

Blackman, I assume you've rethought this, and now give the Republicans' 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act some of the credit for record low unemployment?

[1blackman1]

No

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by farmstud60

Vaccines are not the only way to get immunity from a virus. Fauci was honest about that in January of 2020, but every month that went by he spread more disinformation about viruses.

No such thing as Herd Immunity from a virus that MUTATES. Why do you think they make a vaccine available every September for Influenza_A?

SARS_CoV2 like Influzenza_A is a mutating virus. SARS_CoV2 is mutating every 4-6 months. Influnza_A mutates once a year.

Farmer John,You simply do not know what you don't know.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Good Job Biden. Making America Great Again for Biden is action not slogan. Thanks President Biden for improving life for everyone, even those that lack appreciation for your hard work and leadership. .

+1

More people have jobs and some type of Health Insurance coverage than ever before. The ECCIE republicans can't dispute that. All they can say is "Let go Brandon". What they should be saying is

Thanks Joe Biden

Thanks K. Harris.

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

+1

More people have jobs and some type of Health Insurance coverage than ever before. The ECCIE republicans can't dispute that. All they can say is "Let go Brandon". What they should be saying is

Thanks Joe Biden

Thanks K. Harris.

Enjoy it while it lasts... because that which cannot go on forever won't.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by texassapper

Enjoy it while it lasts... because that which cannot go on forever won't.

Texassapper, thanks for proving my point. You can't dispute the facts.

Nikki Haley does not want to debate the economy with Joe Biden, she wants to debate his age. I wonder why?

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

No such thing as Herd Immunity from a virus that MUTATES. Why do you think they make a vaccine available every September for Influenza_A?

SARS_CoV2 like Influzenza_A is a mutating virus. SARS_CoV2 is mutating every 4-6 months. Influnza_A mutates once a year.

Farmer John,You simply do not know what you don't know.

And you are full of crap again. Thank God you don't farm or we would all starve.

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

+1

More people have jobs and some type of Health Insurance coverage than ever before. The ECCIE republicans can't dispute that. All they can say is "Let go Brandon". What they should be saying is

Thanks Joe Biden

Thanks K. Harris.

And you are totally wrong like always. Biden's polices are leading to long term economic destruction. Health care is the worst I've seen it in my 60 years.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Another hijack?

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Another hijack?

Yep, this thread should just be closed. I hate the term hijack as it just takes a natural curve this way it seems. I am not used to discussions with people that are so wrong, lack knowledge of history, and are way too arrogant for being so wrong.

[1blackman1]

Pot is that you?

[Gotyour6]

So what

They have to work two jobs now to deal with the inflation

[biomed1]

Of the Following . . .

The following is not permitted on the site:

Insulting Others
Targeting other members for attacks
Harassing other members, groups of members, class of members, etc
Disrespecting other members on the site
General rudeness toward other members on the site

#6 - Respect the topics presented by those who start a thread. Attempts to derail a thread or change it's direction is referred to as thread hijack and will be discouraged. Attempts to guide a thread in the right direction are appreciated, while responses to posts which hijack a thread are not.

[Texas Contrarian]

Biden's idolators would do well to take a holistic look at the economic landscape before celebrating what apparently seems to them like the best unemployment picture since the 1950s, although the number isn't as good as it looks and is unlikely to be remotely sustainable. (You wouldn't want to look like the metaphorical equivalent of the wide receiver who spiked the ball on the 5-yard line!)

First, note that the labor force participation rate took a tumble, as Tiny stated. That alone drove the headline unemployment rate down quite a few tens of bips lower than would otherwise be the case.

Then go back and take a look at the link I posted in #7. Here it is:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Notice what happened every time the unemployment rate declined to cycle lows? That's right -- a recession and rapidly rising unemployment rate soon followed!

For instance, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% at the end of the go-go 1960s, in December 1969. But a recession incepted that very month, and 12 months later the unemployment rate stood at 6.1%, as the graph shows. (And that was actually a pretty mild recession!)

Let's see ...

A 500-bip increase in the Fed funds target rate. The rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages rising from sub-3% territory to around 6.5% in less than two years. The looming specter of a cascade of CRE mortgage defaults as rates reset. A credit contraction underway as there's growing angst over regional bank balance sheets as asset portfolio losses become more and more widespread. The inexorable wind-down of the massive pool of "excess savings" poured into household accounts by trillions of dollars of covid relief/stimulus. And the list goes on and on.

So, what sort of economic news do you think comes next in the hit parade? The vaunted "soft landing"? (Good luck with that!)

Now we're seeing the triumph of hope over experience

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Biden's idolators would do well to take a holistic look at the economic landscape before celebrating what apparently seems to them like the best unemployment picture since the 1950s, although the number isn't as good as it looks and is unlikely to be remotely sustainable. (You wouldn't want to look like the metaphorical equivalent of the wide receiver who spiked the ball on the 5-yard line!)

First, note that the labor force participation rate took a tumble, as Tiny stated. That alone drove the headline unemployment rate down quite a few tens of bips lower than would otherwise be the case.

Then go back and take a look at the link I posted in #7. Here it is:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Notice what happened every time the unemployment rate declined to cycle lows? That's right -- a recession and rapidly rising unemployment rate soon followed!

For instance, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.5% at the end of the go-go 1960s, in December 1969. But a recession incepted that very month, and 12 months later the unemployment rate stood at 6.1%, as the graph shows. (And that was actually a pretty mild recession!)

Let's see ...

A 500-bip increase in the Fed funds target rate. The rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages rising from sub-3% territory to around 6.5% in less than two years. The looming specter of a cascade of CRE mortgage defaults as rates reset. A credit contraction underway as there's growing angst over regional bank balance sheets as asset portfolio losses become more and more widespread. The inexorable wind-down of the massive pool of "excess savings" poured into household accounts by trillions of dollars of covid relief/stimulus. And the list goes on and on.

So, what sort of economic news do you think comes next in the hit parade? The vaunted "soft landing"? (Good luck with that!)

Now we're seeing the triumph of hope over experience

Interesting, it looks like every trough in the unemployment rate is followed by a recession, and markedly higher unemployment!

Also, recessions often follow peaks in or higher levels of interest rates,

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

I believe the majority of analysts who forecast GDP expect a recession in the not too distant future. Well, if that happens, let's try to remember to revisit this thread and make Blackman eat crow.