Trumps Arizona convention

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

In your estimation, how many undecided voters will vote for Biden when he is not campaigning and explaining why he should be POTUS? Trump is. Always has. He convinced enough undecideds to get elected in 2016. So you answer that question.

This is not 2016. Trump now has his record as POTUS on which he is running. And voters have almost 3 1/2 years more of seeing his character at work. When Trump took office in January 2017, he had a positive approval rating nationwide according to RCP. 44.7% approve, 43.8% disapprove. Today it stands at 42.5% approve, 55.4% disapprove. And it is falling day to day. In reality, Biden doesn't have to campaign. He can play it very low-key and let Trump destroy himself.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

I don't need glasses to see that Trump(and the OP of both this and the Tulsa thread) expected HUGE turnout that didn't materialize there.

Spin it any way you want, but the Optics of Tulsa was poor for Trump. Was it better than Biden, yes. Did it meet expectations set by the Trump campaign. not even close.

As this thread discusses, the Trump campaign rebounded somewhat in Arizona already, but the venue and coverage was far more limited than the "splash" they wanted in Tulsa.

There you go again. As I said in the Tulsa thread, we are in uncharted waters. And the Trump campaign will have to re think these large indoor rallies. Because of Covid. I’m sure Trump may have been disappointed with the turn out. But I think it had more to do with Covid than lack of enthusiasm. He still got thousand to enter the building. And many showed up days early to hang out. Biden’s camp would have died for a crowd that size and the media would have called it a great success. The Arizona event was not a rally and I didn’t describe it that way. But I saw what I saw. A large enthusiastic crowd and Trump on top of his game. Just as he was in Tulsa. Biden simply can’t do what Trump can. I would bet Biden backers know this too. The only thing the Tulsa rally proved to me is people are still wary of Covid. Not a lack of enthusiasm for Trump.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by bambino

There you go again.

And again, and again, and again!

Packing the place was wrong. Empty seats are wrong.

According to Speedo ... Trump is wrong.

That's why he voted HillariousNoMore and that's why he'll vote for
LapDanceBitten with his domestic terrorist friends remodeling the U.S.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

This is not 2016. Trump now has his record as POTUS on which he is running. And voters have almost 3 1/2 years more of seeing his character at work. When Trump took office in January 2017, he had a positive approval rating nationwide according to RCP. 44.7% approve, 43.8% disapprove. Today it stands at 42.5% approve, 55.4% disapprove. And it is falling day to day. In reality, Biden doesn't have to campaign. He can play it very low-key and let Trump destroy himself.

It was higher before Covid. Just like a QB, Presidents get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. But I like his record. He accomplished more than I thought he would. He’s a fighter and resilient. He’s had more negative forces to deal with than any POTUS in my lifetime. But Biden has a much longer record than Trump. That will be exposed now. We shall see. Won’t we?

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

It was higher before Covid. Just like a QB, Presidents get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. But I like his record. He accomplished more than I thought he would. He’s a fighter and resilient. He’s had more negative forces to deal with than any POTUS in my lifetime. But Biden has a much longer record than Trump. That will be exposed now. We shall see. Won’t we?

I agree with most everything you say. Before Covid and before the George Floyd killing, Trump had an approval rating of about -3.9%.Right now it is -14.5%.

In my opinion, in order for Trump to win he has to start appealing to more than just his base supporters. And he has not shown he is able to do that. I know you are VERY skeptical of polls, but they are all trending in the wrong direction for Trump.

A poll released today by Siena College, one of the highest rated polling companies based on their accuracy over the years:

N.C. -- Biden +9
Florida -- Biden +6
Michigan -- Biden +11
Pa. -- Biden +10
Arizona -- Biden +7
Wisconsin -- Biden +11

Two other polling companies, Redfield & Wilton Strategies and Hodas & Associates, show similar positive results for Biden.

Everything points to Trump being in deeper trouble than in 2016 against Clinton. It sounds like you are expecting Biden to lose it more than Trump to win it. As you say, we shall see.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I agree with most everything you say. Before Covid and before the George Floyd killing, Trump had an approval rating of about -3.9%.Right now it is -14.5%.

In my opinion, in order for Trump to win he has to start appealing to more than just his base supporters. And he has not shown he is able to do that. I know you are VERY skeptical of polls, but they are all trending in the wrong direction for Trump.

A poll released today by Siena College, one of the highest rated polling companies based on their accuracy over the years:

N.C. -- Biden +9
Florida -- Biden +6
Michigan -- Biden +11
Pa. -- Biden +10
Arizona -- Biden +7
Wisconsin -- Biden +11

Two other polling companies, Redfield & Wilton Strategies and Hodas & Associates, show similar positive results for Biden.

Everything points to Trump being in deeper trouble than in 2016 against Clinton. It sounds like you are expecting Biden to lose it more than Trump to win it. As you say, we shall see.

This is why I refer to Speedy as realist.

Trump and team are every bit aware of these polls and like 2016 will take them seriously and act upon them, especially the eroding numbers vs positive gains.

People can blithely dismiss them today and I largely do as well from a standpoint of final prediction of election day 2020, but I'm damn sure Trump isn't ignoring them, nor should he.

There is a difference between blind following and taking the realistic approach and necessary actions to support your candidate. I'd much rather people are worried about current numbers and do something about it, than simply dismiss them in thinking a straight 2016 repeat is going to happen. I need to see the polls shift as they did in 2016. Trump was within margin of error by the polls on election day 2016 and managed to pull off enough states. The polls were largely not wrong, regardless of how people want to dismiss them.

Now go ahead and load up and attack me for thinking Trump has some work to do for his re-election and it's certainly a toss up if not a lead for Biden right now.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

This is why I refer to Speedy as realist.

Trump and team are every bit aware of these polls and like 2016 will take them seriously and act upon them, especially the eroding numbers vs positive gains.

People can blithely dismiss them today and I largely do as well from a standpoint of final prediction of election day 2020, but I'm damn sure Trump isn't ignoring them, nor should he.

There is a difference between blind following and taking the realistic approach and necessary actions to support your candidate. I'd much rather people are worried about current numbers and do something about it, than simply dismiss them in thinking a straight 2016 repeat is going to happen. I need to see the polls shift as they did in 2016. Trump was within margin of error by the polls on election day 2016 and managed to pull off enough states. The polls were largely not wrong, regardless of how people want to dismiss them.

Now go ahead and load up and attack me for thinking Trump has some work to do for his re-election and it's certainly a toss up if not a lead for Biden right now.

I saw an interview with a Debbie Dingle yesterday. She says the same poll quoted was the same poll they used in 2016. She said other polls show it a 1 or 2 point race. I think she’s more of a realist than anyone thinking these polls quoted are accurate. In my opinion, Trump is very strong in Fla and Wisconsin. The Governor in Wisconsin is cracking down on the people tearing down statues. That tells me more than polls do. I’m not buying Pa either. I’m a realist, I know any Dem will carry Philly and Pittsburgh metro. But Biden’s stance on fracking makes him vulnerable here. I’m saying the election will be close, like most in my lifetime. Except Reagan/ Mondale. They’ve all been close. If you think the attendance at the Tulsa rally spells disaster great. I put more stock in Covid keeping the attendance down. But I guess I’m being to realistic. BTW, you’ve been loading up on me since the Tulsa thread. I’m just answering your posts directed at me.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bambino

I saw an interview with a Debbie Dingle yesterday. She says the same poll quoted was the same poll they used in 2016. She said other polls show it a 1 or 2 point race. I think she’s more of a realist than anyone thinking these polls quoted are accurate. In my opinion, Trump is very strong in Fla and Wisconsin. The Governor in Wisconsin is cracking down on the people tearing down statues. That tells me more than polls do. I’m not buying Pa either. I’m a realist, I know any Dem will carry Philly and Pittsburgh metro. But Biden’s stance on fracking makes him vulnerable here. I’m saying the election will be close, like most in my lifetime. Except Reagan/ Mondale. They’ve all been close. If you think the attendance at the Tulsa rally spells disaster great. I put more stock in Covid keeping the attendance down. But I guess I’m being to realistic. BTW, you’ve been loading up on me since the Tulsa thread. I’m just answering your posts directed at me.

I didn't see the Dingle piece, but in 2016 Hillary was leading by about the same or sometimes less in the polls than Biden is on equivalent days.

Trump made that up in 2016 based largely on being a wildcard candidate. He's not that wildcard candidate this election. If the polls don't tighten like they did in 2016 in October, Trump has a problem.

2016 polls were largely spot on, it was the pundits come election day that screwed up.

We should as Trump supporters accept Trump is trailing right now with an overall image problem and work toward changing that. Not dismissing the polls as inaccurate. We'll fall into the same trap the libs did in 2016 if you accept that.

I'm outside the Philly and Pittsburgh sections of PA and I see markedly less overall Trump enthusiasm and hard core support than I did in 2016.

That is exactly what the polls and things Speedy posts support nationwide. Mine is anecdotal to be sure, but as a solid Trump supporter, It has me worried as it should have others.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

I didn't see the Dingle piece, but in 2016 Hillary was leading by about the same or sometimes less in the polls than Biden is on equivalent days.

Trump made that up in 2016 based largely on being a wildcard candidate. He's not that wildcard candidate this election. If the polls don't tighten like they did in 2016 in October, Trump has a problem.

2016 polls were largely spot on, it was the pundits come election day that screwed up.

We should as Trump supporters accept Trump is trailing right now with an overall image problem and work toward changing that. Not dismissing the polls as inaccurate. We'll fall into the same trap the libs did in 2016 if you accept that.

I'm outside the Philly and Pittsburgh sections of PA and I see markedly less overall Trump enthusiasm and hard core support than I did in 2016.

That is exactly what the polls and things Speedy posts support nationwide. Mine is anecdotal to be sure, but as a solid Trump supporter, It has me worried as it should have others.

I never said Trump would win in a landslide. I know it will be close, as I’ve said it always is. I think most people are worried about their livelihoods because of Covid. And it’s 4 months out. I don’t see Biden doing anything to sway anybody. I believe Trump will work his ass off. I don’t believe Biden CAN. His image doesn’t mean beans to me. It’s what he does. He’s delivered pretty much what he campaigned on in 2016. I’ve played a lot of organized sports in my life. I know that you never take an opponent for granted. Ask the 60 Yankees, Sonny Liston, the 69 Colts or Mike Tyson. What I don’t get is where you came up with complacency with Trump supporters?

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bambino

What I don’t get is where you came up with complacency with Trump supporters?

Other than saying Trump supporters need to do more and not take 2020 as another 2016 for granted, I'm not sure where you came up with me saying complacency from Trump supporters.

I agree they are revved up, what I'm seeing and hearing from people around me is that those who aren't Trump supporters are not seeing any reason to get revved up for Trump.

Tulsa didn't make that any better. Arizona was hardly reported upon. It's not budging the needle.

The 40% or so of Trump supporters can be as enthusiastic as they want to be, but if Trump's optics don't improve the numbers from that 40% are not going to move like they did in 2016.

I'm hoping Biden buries himself over the next few months, but right now Trump is needing some serious boosts.

[oeb11]

Good readers - the more the LibDems publish the "Complacency" of Trump supporters, and the "landslide victory lead" of biden - the more the radical socialist milennials will stay home and suck their thumbs while dreaming of Bernie.

Go ahead and give the Libdems a "certainty" of victory - let them stay home. The only problem will be the machine mail-in votes of every demlib - living and dead for 200 years - to skew the election. But Fraud is no vice in LibDem hands - Now is it????

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Other than saying Trump supporters need to do more and not take 2020 as another 2016 for granted, I'm not sure where you came up with me saying complacency from Trump supporters.

I agree they are revved up, what I'm seeing and hearing from people around me is that those who aren't Trump supporters are not seeing any reason to get revved up for Trump.

Tulsa didn't make that any better. Arizona was hardly reported upon. It's not budging the needle.

The 40% or so of Trump supporters can be as enthusiastic as they want to be, but if Trump's optics don't improve the numbers from that 40% are not going to move like they did in 2016.

I'm hoping Biden buries himself over the next few months, but right now Trump is needing some serious boosts.

Maybe it was this exchange:

Originally Posted by bambino View Post
I don’t think anyone on the Trump side is taking anything for granted. Especially Trump.
Anyone stating Trump is going to win in a landslide(which we have many here still proclaiming that) is.
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Old 06-23-2020, 01:13 PM #242
bambino
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I asked you WHO is proclaiming a landslide here. I don’t believe you answered that.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

I saw an interview with a Debbie Dingle yesterday. She says the same poll quoted was the same poll they used in 2016. She said other polls show it a 1 or 2 point race. I think she’s more of a realist than anyone thinking these polls quoted are accurate. In my opinion, Trump is very strong in Fla and Wisconsin. The Governor in Wisconsin is cracking down on the people tearing down statues. That tells me more than polls do. I’m not buying Pa either. I’m a realist, I know any Dem will carry Philly and Pittsburgh metro. But Biden’s stance on fracking makes him vulnerable here. I’m saying the election will be close, like most in my lifetime. Except Reagan/ Mondale. They’ve all been close. If you think the attendance at the Tulsa rally spells disaster great. I put more stock in Covid keeping the attendance down. But I guess I’m being to realistic. BTW, you’ve been loading up on me since the Tulsa thread. I’m just answering your posts directed at me.

I've been loading up on you? I'm discussing the November election. I'm interested in hearing your POV on it. I'm supporting my POV by citing several polls that have been done recently. Trump never trailed this badly 4 years ago. Right now, everything seems to be trending in the wrong direction for Trump. He has shown he can turn things around as he did in 2016 and finish strong. How much fracking will influence the voters in Pa. is unknown. You could be correct. I said before, very recently -- the polls are so positive for Democrats that they worry me in that the samples might be skewed.

I never said the Tulsa rally spelled disaster for Trump. I said it was disappointing based on what he had hoped for in a turnout versus the actual turnout.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Good readers - the more the LibDems publish the "Complacency" of Trump supporters, and the "landslide victory lead" of biden - the more the radical socialist milennials will stay home and suck their thumbs while dreaming of Bernie.

Go ahead and give the Libdems a "certainty" of victory - let them stay home. The only problem will be the machine mail-in votes of every demlib - living and dead for 200 years - to skew the election. But Fraud is no vice in LibDem hands - Now is it????

OEB, I can guarantee you that Democratic voters will not stay home in 2020. Trump may win but it won't be due to Democrats sitting at home on election day. The Democratic turnout in 2018 was incredible. I believe you will see that again in 2020.

5 states currently have All-Mail elections. There has been no sign of widespread voter fraud. Unfortunately Trump says there is fraud and his minions immediately hop on the bandwagon. I can legally vote by mail and I've laid out what would have to happen for my vote to be stolen and cast in my stead. Very difficult.

"While election experts say fraud in mail balloting is slightly more common than in in-person voting, it's still such a minuscule amount it's not statistically meaningful."

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/04/86489...-to-know#fraud

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

I asked you WHO is proclaiming a landslide here. I don’t believe you answered that.

There have been several on this forum. Ellen for one. There have been others but without going back and rereading every thread I wouldn't name names. You are not one of them. I remember countering the posts of individuals who said it would be a Trump landslide in 2020 by defining what many believe to be the definition of a landslide -- about 375 electoral votes.