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LexusLover · 06-07-2020, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

... for whatever the reason Trump did clearly out-campaign that nag down the stretch. Trump also used data gathering better than Clinton and this from a novice up against a veteran DNC campaign machine.

Trump was no "novice" ....

.... successful developers have a good a good "ground game"!

His people were marketing before he came down the stairs. When Junior was interviewed in September it was apparent.

Guys like Speedo bet on the media hype. He claims to be "spot on" in 2018. BFD! Where was the Blue Wave?

oeb11 · 06-07-2020, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

you predicted Michelle or Hilary would steal the nomination, a few months ago.. you're all over the place with wild notions.

Biden leads Trump by 24% among those with College Degrees. the dumb fucks are attracted to Trump.

i put those out as possibilities at the time. True
Michelle - not going to happen - Period.

H... - is still conniving a way to be Biden's VP - or fix the superelectorate vote to nominate herself.

Will be difficult now that Biden has secured the votes for nomination.

not impossible - his pre-senile dementia worsens - and might worsen enough to require the DNC to dump him for a new candidate.

That would likely be a Bernie-H... battle - two of the most reviled politicians in America

and a boon to whoever the RNC nominates.

I am leaving room for Trump to decide - "fuck this- It ain't worth it" - and not run for a second term.

oeb11 · 06-07-2020, 04:46 PM

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

you predicted Michelle or Hilary would steal the nomination, a few months ago.. you're all over the place with wild notions.

Biden leads Trump by 24% among those with College Degrees. the dumb fucks are attracted to Trump.

Does the poster have a citation for the last sentence above - sounds like NYT and WacomPost tripe to me - or a poll of 100 graduates of harvard and Vasser.

Chung Tran · 06-07-2020, 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oeb11

I am leaving room for Trump to decide - "fuck this- It ain't worth it" - and not run for a second term.

Hmm.. there's a scoop. I think he would have done it by now, if he was going to.. and he is too big a narcissist to think he won't win by a landslide.

oeb11 · 06-07-2020, 04:49 PM

u may write truth - maybe not a landslide - he was there previously - but No POTUS candidate should run and not have the ego to expect to be elected as the Best Candidate.

Chung Tran · 06-07-2020, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oeb11

u may write truth - maybe not a landslide - he was there previously - but No POTUS candidate should run and not have the ego to expect to be elected as the Best Candidate.

true. you have to think you are the very best, and you WILL WIN. it takes so much time, money and energy to run. the actual best candidates don't run, because the risk-reward metric is against them, and they know it.

SpeedRacerXXX · 06-07-2020, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LexusLover

Trump was no "novice" ....

.... successful developers have a good a good "ground game"!

His people were marketing before he came down the stairs. When Junior was interviewed in September it was apparent.

Guys like Speedo bet on the media hype. He claims to be "spot on" in 2018. BFD! Where was the Blue Wave?

Yet you continue to criticize my missing the 2016 election. Why was that a "BFD" and my nailing the 2018 election NOT a"BFD"? Typical hypocrite.

Democrats picked up 40 House seats and 7 governor's seats in 2018. They lost 2 Senate seats while facing terrible odds. They held seats
in heavily Republican states of Montana and West Virginia.

Latest House results confirm 2018 wasn't a blue wave. It was a blue tsunami.

Cox's victory combined with other election results means that Democrats have picked up a net gain of 40 seats.

As has oft been repeated, this is the largest Democratic House gain since 1974. It's a larger gain than Democrats had in the wave elections of both 1982 and 2006.

Another way to judge an election is by how many votes each side wins. Democrats' position in the national House popular vote is now reaching historical proportions.

According to the vote count from the Cook Political Report, Democrats now have a 8.6 point lead. For a party that started in the minority, this is incredibly strong. Minority parties often struggle because even an unpopular majority party is protected partially by the fact that incumbents receive a boost compared to other candidates.

This year's 8.6 point House popular vote win for the Democrats is the greatest on record for a minority party heading into an election. This dates all the way back to 1942, when the Clerk of the House started listing the House popular vote in its after-election statistics document. That is, the Democratic performance this year was better than the minority party's in the previous 38 elections.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/06/polit...ave/index.html

2018 was most definitely a Blue Wave. You can rationalize it anyway you want. And you would be wrong.

dilbert firestorm · 06-07-2020, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LexusLover

Interesting!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

(Just a quick search getting a CURRENT summary!)

Does a Minus APPROVAL RATING sound better than 42%?

yes that is interesting.

the only other president who wasn't popular was gerald ford.

adav8s28 · 06-08-2020, 02:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Thank you very much.

That vote means NOTHING! It won't mean shit in November. Trump voters will always turn out, primary or not. Will Biden win Pennsylvania? I don't know and neither do you. Biden will win Michigan. If Biden wins Florida the election is over. There are 14 states which are considered to some degree to be battleground states. Biden leads in 12 of them. The 2 where he is not leading, Iowa and Texas, were at no time thought to be in play for Democrats.

Trump's approval rating is now -12.3%. No POTUS seeking reelection has ever won with a negative approval rating.

The betting parlors, which up until this point in time, had favored Trump, have swung in the other direction and now have Biden as the favorite in November.

https://bookies.com/news/us-presiden...wn-biden-ahead

I'm interested in your "opinion" as to why you think Trump is a certain victor in November. Unlike you, I will respect your opinion.

+1

Good post Speed. Biden only needs to win any three of the 12 battleground states that he is leading in.

LexusLover · 06-08-2020, 03:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Yet you continue to criticize my missing the 2016 election. Why was that a "BFD" and my nailing the 2018 election NOT a"BFD"? Typical hypocrite.

I'm not "criticizing" you .... just pointing out your're full of shit.

You didn't "nail" anything for 2018 ... and in comparison .... you missed the World Series and called a Little League skirmish that based on history is a "no brainer"! But your self-delusion must be comforting. So please continue!

You seem to think you're Eccie's Carl Rove. Not even close! Don't even make a pimple on a gnat's ass.

Tiny · 06-08-2020, 06:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

It means to me that the 2020 election will be close, closer than the 2016 election in my opinion. What is significant to me at the current time is Trump is sliding backwards if the polls are to be believed. His approval rating is negative, which is not suprising, but is falling. Trump had leads in several states like Florida and NC and Arizona but is trailing in the latest polls.

The one thing we agree on is that with so much time left before the election, a lot can change and polls in October are a lot more significant than polls in June.
`

Trump is not ahead in Florida, NC or AZ. Here are Real Clear Politics averages of the last few polls, followed by result of the most recent poll, for those and some other battleground states.

Florida: Biden +3.4% / Biden +3%
North Carolina: Trump +0.3% / Biden +4%
Arizona: Biden +3.4% / Biden +4%
Ohio: Biden +1% / Biden +2%
Pennsylvania: Biden +3.3%/Trump +4%
Wisconsin: Biden +3.4% / Biden +9%
Michigan: Biden +7.3% / Biden +12%

The bettors on Predictit.org who are wagering money on this are now giving the electoral college to Biden, 334 to 204, based on a state-by-state count. If your $0.55 bet for Biden pays off you get back $1.00 if he wins. If you bet $0.46 on Trump you get $1.00.

I don't think it's going to be close. Unfortunately I think it's going to be a blowout. The reason I say "unfortunately" is because a blowout would mean the Democrats would also win the Senate.

Biden is a good man. In terms of personal character he's head and shoulders above Trump. However, he has moved far to the left over the last year, and is working hand-in-hand with the Sanders wing in his party. Schumer appears to indicate he's going to end the filibuster if he takes power. The Democrats will hold onto the House. The country may be about to go farther left than it's been in many years. I believe this will have negative repercussions for the economy in general, and for the energy industry specifically, which is a big part of the economy here in Texas.

LexusLover · 06-08-2020, 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiny

Biden is a good man.

Yea, buddy! I'm thinking the two men at the table don't agree with you. Probably the female, too!

SpeedRacerXXX · 06-08-2020, 06:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LexusLover

I'm not "criticizing" you .... just pointing out your're full of shit.

You didn't "nail" anything for 2018 ... and in comparison .... you missed the World Series and called a Little League skirmish that based on history is a "no brainer"! But your self-delusion must be comforting. So please continue!

You seem to think you're Eccie's Carl Rove. Not even close! Don't even make a pimple on a gnat's ass.

Full of shit because I'm willing to make a prediction, right or wrong, while you sit on the sidelines and criticize?

What World Series did I miss?

You can continue to demean me all you like. I told you a long time ago I will not get into the gutter with you. Posts like the one you just made do more to destroy your credibility than anything else. Just like Trump.

bambino · 06-08-2020, 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gfejunkie

Your opinion sucks, as usual.

So, are you saying Rasmussen "over sampled" black Republicans?

Black voters aren't as stupid as demoncRATS think they are. Trump has done more to let black people out of prison with the First Step Act than Biden did to put them in prison with crime bills he sponsored dating back to the 1980's.

That counts a helluva a lot more than what the dims and the MSM are trying to do pinning what a rogue police officer did on the President. That shit just don't fly.

I like real life polls anyway. Like this one from Biden's own home state. Republicans didn't even have to show up since their candidate is a forgone conclusion. Yet, they did and they blew the dims away...

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...HL0tz6C9Hv0xhI

Go, Pennsylvania!

Trump got more votes than Biden in Pa.

LexusLover · 06-08-2020, 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Full of shit because ....

... does it matter? It appears only to you.