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oeb11 · 03-31-2020, 03:47 PM

Not trying to start a major argument over science.

There are viruses that contain DVA and those that contain RNA - as the coronavirus family of viruses.

The covering is a glycoprotein coat of the coronavirus.

Viruses can be killed by many methods.

The above quote seems to me to have been simplified for a lay audience.

The facts above are generally correct - but may not apply to the Coronavirus family specifically.

Tiny · 03-31-2020, 06:15 PM

March 31, 2020
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America

University of Washington IHME Model: 83,967 (1)

The Waco Kid Italian Model: greater than 67,100 (2)

(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X

Death Game Estimates:

Friendly Fred: 50,000
eccieuser9500: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (3)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (3)
Tiny: 260,000
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

(3) average of high and low estimates

oeb11 · 03-31-2020, 06:28 PM

This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the 2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths.
Overall, the CDC estimates that 12,000 to 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 can be blamed on the flu. Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

FYI - a comparator.

I think w will see a comparable death rate when all is finished up.

If the chloroquines are effective - it may significantly decrease this case mortality rate.

eccieuser9500 · 03-31-2020, 06:54 PM

Coronavirus Task Force Details 'Sobering' Data Behind Its Extended Guidelines

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/82391...18&f=823916343

Quote:

America must brace for 100,000 or more people to die in the coming months in the coronavirus pandemic, the White House's response team warned Tuesday.

There goes that.

Tiny · 03-31-2020, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

America must brace for 100,000 or more people to die in the coming months in the coronavirus pandemic, the White House's response team warned Tuesday.

Trump almost appears resigned to that. From the NPR article:

Trump, however, suggested that he's been told that 100,000 could be a floor and not the ceiling.

"They're very sobering, yeah," the president said of the estimates. "When you see 100,000 people and that's a minimum number ... and they said it's unlikely you'll be able to attain that. Think of what would have happened if we didn't do anything."

oeb11 · 03-31-2020, 07:03 PM

9500 and the DPST's are praying for hundreds of thousands of deaths - so that they and their mummified Biden may triumph in Nov 2020.
good luck with that macabre prayer -9500,

Consider educating Oneself with a Nature program on "vultures"!

oeb11 · 03-31-2020, 07:06 PM

DPST's and LSM are jumping up and down on Trump - yet I have yet to see any constructive suggestions from any of them on managing the pandemic.

All they have to offer is retrospective criticism and avoidance of any responsibility for their own obstructive behavior. As, for example - DeBlasio encouraging NY folks to be out and about at the time trump closed the China border.

Hypocrisy and Lies - the DPST's would be nowhere without them/

The_Waco_Kid · 03-31-2020, 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Coronavirus Task Force Details 'Sobering' Data Behind Its Extended Guidelines

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/82391...18&f=823916343

There goes that.

So ya gonna stick with yer 250 thousand and 1 to my < 66k?

Tiny · 03-31-2020, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

So ya gonna stick with yer 250 thousand and 1 to my < 66k?

Eccieuser9500 revised to 80,000.

eccieuser9500 · 03-31-2020, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

So ya gonna stick with yer 250 thousand and 1 to my < 66k?

I should have.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiny

Eccieuser9500 revised to 80,000.

That's why the facepalm.

This shit is seriously fucked up. Maybe my first guess was better. I was hoping to just be funny. Sheesh!

The_Waco_Kid · 03-31-2020, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

I should have.

then stick with it Dr Deathmonger

That's why the facepalm.

This shit is seriously fucked up. Maybe my first guess was better. I was hoping to just be funny. Sheesh!

why would Italy's rates be so much less per population yet the US will have hundreds of thousands of deaths?

of course the CommieTard Chinamen are lying about their death rates butt is Italy?

i say < 63k

Tiny · 03-31-2020, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

why would Italy's rates be so much less per population yet the US will have hundreds of thousands of deaths?

of course the CommieTard Chinamen are lying about their death rates butt is Italy?

i say < 63k

Because deaths in Italy are still rising like a bat out of hell. See the Total Coronavirus Deaths in Italy graph here, about 1/3rd of the way down,

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

The y-axis on this graph is logarithmic. If this were a regular graph, you'd see that total deaths are rising exponentially.

The reason I'm calculating the Waco Kid Model above, where I take total deaths in Italy and then increase by the ratio of the population of the USA to Italy is because,

a. In about a week or two I figure Italian deaths will be over 18,500 so that the implied number of deaths in the USA (5.4X higher) will be over 100,000. And the Waco Kid Model will maybe then be predicting a higher number than the University of Washington Model, and

b. I'm an asshole

Btw, If I had it to do over I'd guess less than 260,000, but more than the U. of Washington model (83,000).

What's your actual guess? I know it's less than 63,000 but don't know how much less.

eccieuser9500 · 03-31-2020, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

why would Italy's rates be so much less per population yet the US will have hundreds of thousands of deaths?

of course the CommieTard Chinamen are lying about their death rates butt is Italy?

i say < 63k

We have one year and three quarters left until D day. Or V day? Anyway.

As per the NPR article, 100,000 in mere months. So by the last day of NEXT year, it's going to be closer to a quarter million people! Way passed your measly 63K. You want to stick with that? For 21 months?

If teeny Tiny allows me to revert back to my comical guess of over (The Price is Right rules, remember) 260K. Afterall, he wants to revise his guess. Whatcha say, Tiny? I'll go ahead and say . . .

260,001 + 1 + your 63K = 323,001

Closest without going over. The "Greatest Generation" (you bet your ass I put it quotes), and their older booming offspring, plus those variable deaths due to pre existing immuno defiencies will be dispassionately erased. Cataclysmic? This will be studied for generations.

eccieuser9500 · 03-31-2020, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tiny

Noted eccieuser. I'll stick with my number, through thick and thin, although I believe you're closer to the truth than I am. Please note I didn't revise my estimate to 80,001.

Can I stick with my original? Or maybe the newest revision?

Tiny · 03-31-2020, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Can I stick with my original? Or maybe the newest revision?

Teeny Tiny, sheesh, you sound like my girlfriend when she's trying to give me a complex about my penis.

Sure, fine to revise, we shouldn't reach peak death rate for a couple of weeks so you're not gaming my game. What's your new number?

I was thinking about offering a prize of one hour with your favorite provider to the winner. But then I thought about SESTA, FOSTA, pimp laws, and problems maintaining anonymity. So the winner will have to be content with the knowledge he's good at foretelling death.