2020 U.S. Election Predictions

[Tiny]

I'm surprised at how many got it right in this thread -- SecretE, SpeedRacer, Grace Preston, PfunkDenver. What's even more surprising is that at least two and maybe three lean to the left, but were still predicting a Republican controlled Senate, while polls and betting markets heavily favored the Democrats to win.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'm surprised at how many got it right in this thread -- SecretE, SpeedRacer, Grace Preston, PfunkDenver. What's even more surprising is that at least two and maybe three lean to the left, but were still predicting a Republican controlled Senate, while polls and betting markets heavily favored the Democrats to win.

I'll add my kudo's. That was some pretty good predicting right there

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'm surprised at how many got it right in this thread -- SecretE, SpeedRacer, Grace Preston, PfunkDenver. What's even more surprising is that at least two and maybe three lean to the left, but were still predicting a Republican controlled Senate, while polls and betting markets heavily favored the Democrats to win.

speedracer got it right & wrong on the senate. he predicted a split senate. that didn't happen, but Dems didn't control it.


I have their predictions in the updated predition list.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

speedracer got it right & wrong on the senate. he predicted a split senate. that didn't happen, but Dems didn't control it.


I have their predictions in the updated predition list.

Yes, but in this thread, with mostly posts from late August, he predicted Republicans would hold the Senate. SpeedRacer would have absorbed additional data between then and the second week of October that caused him to change his prediction to a 50/50 split.

Apparently the betting market was reacting like SpeedRacer. Click on the 90 day graph here:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...-2020-election

You'll see there that around August 31 punters were split 50/50 on who would win the Senate. But by October 10, they were ascribing about a 65% probability to Democrats controlling the Senate.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by SecretE

Think my prediction was pretty accurate, except for Loomer winning. If Trump is able to pull off the 11:59 PM miracle, it will be the greatest comeback in U.S. Political History...but I doubt it.

I'm taking a break from these political threads.

Just don't take the political threads too seriously.

My prediction in this thread was also accurate:

In the Senate, yes, McSally will probably lose in Arizona, Jones in Alabama, and Gardner in Colorado -- net +1 for Democrats. Then there are the toss-up races -- Michigan, Maine, NC, Iowa, Montana, and at least 1 of the 2 Georgia seats. Only Michigan is held by a Democrat. It would take a blue tsunami for Democrats to take control of the Senate and I don't see that happening.

Democrats will keep control of the House.

Biden wins the popular vote. So many unpredictables for the electoral vote.

[winn dixie]

A "judge" has just ordered the usps to scour facilities to look for "lost" ballots!
Folks the election is being stolen right before our eyes!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

speedracer got it right & wrong on the senate. he predicted a split senate. that didn't happen, but Dems didn't control it.


I have their predictions in the updated predition list.

The irony of my predictions is that 1 - 2 years ago (I think it was right after the 2018 midterms), I made the following predictions, without predicting the POTUS:

Trump gets less EVs in 2020 than he did in 2016
Trump loses the popular vote by a greater margin than in 2016
Michigan flips
Democrats retain control of the House but lose some seats
Republicans retain control of the Senate but lose a seat or two
Trump wins Texas but by less than the 9% he won it by in 2016 (I thought it would be about 5% and it was by about 6%)

I missed the Senate results because I listened to those damn polls which showed Maine and NC flipping.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The irony of my predictions is that 1 - 2 years ago (I think it was right after the 2018 midterms), I made the following predictions, without predicting the POTUS:

Trump gets less EVs in 2020 than he did in 2016
Trump loses the popular vote by a greater margin than in 2016
Michigan flips
Democrats retain control of the House but lose some seats
Republicans retain control of the Senate but lose a seat or two
Trump wins Texas but by less than the 9% he won it by in 2016 (I thought it would be about 5% and it was by about 6%)

I missed the Senate results because I listened to those damn polls which showed Maine and NC flipping.

You may still end up being right, that there will be a 50/50 split, although I sincerely hope not. One of the Georgia elections will definitely go to a runoff and the second probably will. There's going to be a ton of money invested in these races by outside interests:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/05/geor...n-dollars.html

Wealthy and not-so-wealthy Democratic donors are going to pull out all the stops to try to see the way through to victories, as their vision of an America shaped by their ideals depends on it.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

You may still end up being right, that there will be a 50/50 split, although I sincerely hope not. One of the Georgia elections will definitely go to a runoff and the second probably will. There's going to be a ton of money invested in these races by outside interests:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/05/geor...n-dollars.html

Wealthy and not-so-wealthy Democratic donors are going to pull out all the stops to try to see the way through to victories, as their vision of an America shaped by their ideals depends on it.

As stated in the past, I tend to agree with you on the Senate. When the Senate, House, and POTUS are all controlled by one party, some crap legislation can get passed. But if Republicans keep control of the Senate, it's possible nothing will get done. McConnell is not approve Biden's cabinet picks unless they meet HIS standards.

Mitch McConnell is already preparing to torpedo Joe Biden's Cabinet picks

A source close to the majority leader tells Axios that the GOP won't approve any "radical progressives" from Biden

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/05/mit...cabinet-picks/

Could certainly be "Fake News" but it would not surprise me.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

I should have addressed the Georgia runoff elections scheduled for January. David Perdue must be so pissed. 49.8% of the vote and needed 50.0% to avoiid a runoff.

I would expect both Republicans, Perdue and Loeffler, to be favored. But who knows how many voters will show up or cast mail-in votes for a special election in January. About 5 million votes were cast in the 2020 election in Georgia. Less than 4 million votes were cast in the 2018 midterms. You are correct in that a ton of money will be spent on the election by special interest groups. I doubt there will be much ballot splitting where voters choose one Republican and one Democrat. Should be interesting and a lot hangs in the balance.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

As stated in the past, I tend to agree with you on the Senate. When the Senate, House, and POTUS are all controlled by one party, some crap legislation can get passed. But if Republicans keep control of the Senate, it's possible nothing will get done. McConnell is not approve Biden's cabinet picks unless they meet HIS standards.

Mitch McConnell is already preparing to torpedo Joe Biden's Cabinet picks

A source close to the majority leader tells Axios that the GOP won't approve any "radical progressives" from Biden

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/05/mit...cabinet-picks/

Could certainly be "Fake News" but it would not surprise me.

The article says Republicans could force Biden to choose someone like Lael Brainard over Elizabeth Warren for Secretary of the Treasury. If so that's a very good thing. From the little I've read about Brainard, she'd be far preferable to Warren, in terms for what's good for the USA. I say that even knowing that Paul Krugman was a member of Brainard's Dissertation Committee. But then practically anybody would make a better Treasury Secretary than Elizabeth Warren. Hell, I'd be for giving Bernie Madoff early parole and putting him in charge instead of Liz.

I believe McConnell may surprise you, if he remains Senate Majority Leader. The Republican Senate couldn't get along with Obama in large part because Obama is arrogant, unyielding and sanctimonious. Similarly, Trump couldn't get along with Pelosi or Schumer because he's arrogant, abusive and narcissistic.

Biden historically has been much more capable of working with the opposing party. If he moves back to the center, and if he's still calling the shots, we could be looking at something like Clinton's second term, a golden age. That would require a lot of luck though, and perhaps a Republican House.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I doubt there will be much ballot splitting where voters choose one Republican and one Democrat. Should be interesting and a lot hangs in the balance.

Agreed. Come mid-January we'll probably be looking at 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats, or 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. The most likely scenario is that both Republicans win. Second most likely is that both Democrats win.