The Black Trump Vote

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Fear???? I'd love to see a Republican candidate for president get a lot more than 18% of the black vote. The future of the party depends on it. In the long term, Republicans have to boost their appeal to minorities, women and younger voters or they'll go the way of the Whigs.

Is Trump going to get 12% of the black vote? I seriously doubt it. He'll be lucky to get the votes of 12% of black men, and will do much worse among black women.

I think 12% of the Black vote is within range for Trump. He will also do better with the Hispanic vote than he did in 2016. But everything points to many suburban voters, primarily women, and many older voters who supported him in 2016 voting for Biden in 2020.

I predicted about 2 years ago Trump would lose the 2020 popular vote by more than he did in 2016. That prediction seems to be on target. Instead of a 2% loss it could be as high as 6-7%. But that could once again be meaninless depending on in which states the increases occur.

Does the increase in early voting favor Democrats or Republicans? In Texas in 2016 59.2% of registered voters voted. In 2020 46% of registered voters have already voted, with 3 more days of early voting left.

Does the increase in younger voting (18-29) favor Democrats or Republicans?

One thing can be said about Trump -- he gets voters to turn out, whether for him or against him.

[oeb11]

De polls, de polls


the only poll that matters is Nov 3!

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by oeb11

De polls, de polls


the only poll that matters is Nov 3!

Yes but the ones before that are the ones that give the Libs comfort so thats what they want to talk about...

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by oeb11

De polls, de polls


the only poll that matters is Nov 3!

I'm still waiting for your predictions for next Tuesday.

POTUS
Senate
House

The "poll" that matters has already started. The counting begins next Tuesday. Tremendous early voting, and early voting historically favors Democrats. Increased turnout by younger voters, who historically support the Democrats.

Agree or disagree? Instead of falling back on your usual responses related to socialism or Marxism or DPSTs, add some substance to your posts.

[oeb11]

I suppose it is a comfort to the DPST contingent to read 'polls' to assuage their insecurity and anxiety syndromes.

Matters Not

nov 3 matters!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by texassapper

Yes but the ones before that are the ones that give the Libs comfort so thats what they want to talk about...

We have polls and we have the biased opinions of people on this forum. Polls have shown themselves to be quite accurate over time. THe opinions are obviously slanted to whichever party one supports. Usually without justification.

As I've said before, people, Trump included, tell us how faulty and inaccurate polls are and how they can't be trusted, until a poll supports their POV and then they can't wait to cite it. See Trump and the Rasmussen polls.

[oeb11]

De pols, De polls - get a different narrative - it is tiresome !

[sportfisherman]

I think I saw a poll last night that said 87% of Trump supporters believe he will be re-elected.

I just saw it in passing so I'm not sure about the %

[pleasurem]

Biden... uh, uh, uh... you are a fool if you vote Democrat!!!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by oeb11

De pols, De polls - get a different narrative - it is tiresome !

oeb. I can say the same about you with your constant predictions of how we will become a socalist/Marxist nation with no free elections if Biden/Harris are elected. That is getting old.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by sportfisherman

I think I saw a poll last night that said 87% of Trump supporters believe he will be re-elected.

I just saw it in passing so I'm not sure about the %

I don't doubt it. In polls of ALL voters, most say Trump will win the election.

Gallup: Majority of Americans think Trump will win election

Just 40% of those surveyed think Biden will win.

"Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win," wrote Megan Brenan in an article released by the polling firm. "Although majorities of partisans think their party's candidate will win, Republicans are more likely to believe Trump will win (90%) than Democrats are to think Biden will (73%). Fifty-six percent of independents predict that Trump will win."

https://justthenews.com/government/w...l-win-election

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

The below is from a black male with just under a gorillion followers on social media. No idea what percentage are in his same demographic or gender, but even if it is only half a gorillion, that's a bunch. For the dolt-class, a reminder that approximately half of that demographic are female and 100% of the people getting abortions are female.

Kanye West: Abortion has killed more Black lives in 2020 than total US COVID death count

So, Kanye West — 2020 presidential candidate, rap artist, and (recently) self-described Christian — headed over to Texas for a conversation with Joe Rogan, and it was quite the ride. West talked about how he plans to create stadium churches; his brawls with the music industry executives; his (very American) path from hip hop to church and sort of back again; and his apparently very real political aspirations....

... One of the major statistics on the subject of life is that the greatest advocates for the A-word [abortion] are men from ages 31-37. That’s how old I was. I felt like I was too busy. My dad felt like he was too busy for me. We have a culture of that … In our culture, we’re doped up, and psyched out, and made to kill our children. We have to decouple the conversation of Planned Parenthood and women’s choice. I’m Christian, so I’m pro-life. When I go into office, I’m not changing laws because I realize we live in an imperfect world and an imperfect society. What I will be presenting is a Plan A. We’ve already started working on a Plan A to change the connotation of orphanages, to change the connotation of foster care.

There were 210,000 deaths due to COVID in America. Everywhere you go, you see someone with a mask on. With A, the A word, A culture — I’ll say it one time, with abortion culture — there are 1,000 Black children aborted a day. Daily. We are in genocide. More Black children since February than people have died of COVID. And everyone wears a mask. So it’s a matter of where are we turning a blind eye to?...

But do actual numbers support any part of his claim? Let's check with a math guy...

Shocking numbers: Comparing COVID-19 deaths to abortion deaths

I recently saw the headline from the New York Times about the deaths of over 200,000 Americans to COVID-19, and it got me thinking.

What does that number represent? How does this number relate to the number of abortions committed in the U.S. every year?

What I found was shocking, sobering, and heartbreaking.

My bachelor’s degree is in mathematics, so my automatic response was to begin crunching numbers. In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States according to the CDC website...

To read the rest of the article (URL provided above), one must be able to add up 1 plus 1 and consistently get 2, though the formulas presented are very easy to understand beyond that basic prerequisite.

Regardless, Kayne seems to prefer the general Pro-Life candidate and is not a fan of the Margaret Sanger team supporters. Go figure.

[GastonGlock]

There are no black Trump voters. They stopped being black by virtue of not voting for Joe.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

oeb. I can say the same about you with your constant predictions of how we will become a socalist/Marxist nation with no free elections if Biden/Harris are elected. That is getting old.

That is the only possible outcome in that scenario. Joe-mentia ain't got the gas to handle the Squad, unless he calls in a favor from chYna. At this point however, he owes more to them than he is owed from them.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

oeb. I can say the same about you with your constant predictions of how we will become a socalist/Marxist nation with no free elections if Biden/Harris are elected. That is getting old.

Looking like we've been talking about the crumbs of elections past when it comes to the black demographic for Republicans. Here's a snippet from a recent article:

Thomas Sowell wrote in 2016, shortly before Trump was elected, “Black votes matter. If Republicans could get 20 percent of black votes, the Democrats would be ruined.” He added, though, “This is highly unlikely, given the approach used by Republicans.”

Also in the article was a harken back to the famous Lyndon Johnson quote about owning that demographic for the next 200 years. However, the above 20% number was based on the approach used by Republicans (historically). NOT the approach used by Trump!

Trump garnered about 8% of that demographic at that time. Now we are experiencing a cavalcade of support from that group and others: Leo Tyrell 2.0, Hershel Walker, Lil Wayne, 50 Cent, Kanye and on and on and on. BUT, (and it's a big butt) Rasmussen has been tracking an interesting development of late. It seems as though the approval rating for Trump for that demographic is trending along a lunar trajectory approaching 50%. The trend seems to be since late August/early September time frame and steadily rising. At this point in time, some are estimating a possible 30% swath of the demographic may go Trump in 2020. 30 frick'n percent!!!

Here's an interesting question that small business owners have to grapple with this election cycle (regardless of their demographic): Do you support the candidate that says, lock-down will likely continue, those Antifa thugs burning down and looting your business, as well as assaulting cops are just an idea? Not to mention a nation wide minimum wage increase. Or do you support the candidate that says no more lock down, open up businesses and schools, Antifa is a domestic terrorist group and has the endorsement of every Law Enforcement group, compared to the other candidate that has exactly zero?

Hmmmm, not a tough choice really. Lube up - early and often - seems like sage advise.