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09-25-2015, 09:20 PM
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#61
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jun 25, 2012
Location: Ahead of you.
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Old-T
I am actually going to use this quote the next time I teach a stats class--it is near perfect!
It demonstrates the wonderful misuse of statistical analysis: don't like what hundreds of data points say, well pick apart individual ones. Ignore trends and look at a single instantiation.
The data trends in temperature, storms, migratory patters, ice formation, etc., etc., are all there. But the fools point to the anomalies and say there is no change.
Argue about how to respond, but that is a separate thing from acknowledging what is happening.
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My condolences to your students. Your grasp of stats isn't any better than your grasp of fact.
When the margin of error is greater than the alleged anomoly, it is not statistically clear if there even is an anomly, as is the case for 2015.
When you say a particular year was the warmest on record one day and the next day say that what you said yesterday only has a 38% chance of being true you've admitted that chances are, what said was not true. Therefore no anomly again. This was the case in 2014. The temperature trend is flat. It has been for 18 plus years.
As for storms, no upward trend in frequency or severity. Hurricane intensity and frequency trending down. Artic sea ice has increased %47 percent since 2012. More ice, more older ice.
You know bupkis. Fool.
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09-25-2015, 09:35 PM
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#62
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Account Disabled
Join Date: Jan 20, 2011
Location: kansas
Posts: 28,773
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducbutter
My condolences to your students. Your grasp of stats isn't any better than your grasp of fact.
When the margin of error is greater than the alleged anomoly, it is not statistically clear if there even is an anomly, as is the case for 2015.
When you say a particular year was the warmest on record one day and the next day say that what you said yesterday only has a 38% chance of being true you've admitted that chances are, what said was not true. Therefore no anomly again. This was the case in 2014. The temperature trend is flat. It has been for 18 plus years.
As for storms, no upward trend in frequency or severity. Hurricane intensity and frequency trending down. Artic sea ice has increased %47 percent since 2012. More ice, more older ice.
You know bupkis. Fool.
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LMAO, like to see you prove there is more Arctic ice.
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09-25-2015, 09:38 PM
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#63
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Valued Poster
Join Date: May 20, 2010
Location: Wichita
Posts: 28,730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by i'va biggen
LMAO, like to see you prove there is more Arctic ice. 
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Check the satellite photographs.
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09-25-2015, 09:40 PM
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#64
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jun 25, 2012
Location: Ahead of you.
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shanm
A "money grab" is quite literally the most pathetic excuse that RW nuts give. Where the FUCK is the money going?
On the other hand you have multi billion dollar oil and energy industries who stand to profit from a misguided public perception. "Money grab" my ass.
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No money grab? It's called Cap and Trade. It's not here yet, but.... Do you deny that's a goal of the environmental left? And clearly that money and power would go to the "Gubmint" and bureaucrats.
There's also a lot of grant money out there for climate scientists. Billions in fact. Of course, those monies would dry up pretty quickly if it's found that the recent warming was not related to human activity and we therefore don't any control over the climate or it's changes. Do you seriously want to deny that climatolgists would have no incentive to find in favor of catastrophoic anthropogenic warming? Seems naive.
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09-25-2015, 10:05 PM
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#66
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Account Disabled
Join Date: Jan 20, 2011
Location: kansas
Posts: 28,773
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy
Check the satellite photographs.
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I have, check the people who live in Barrow Alaska. Check their sea ice cam.
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09-25-2015, 10:07 PM
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#67
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Account Disabled
Join Date: Jan 20, 2011
Location: kansas
Posts: 28,773
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducbutter
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Perfect, a pic of Dorothy and Toto, wonder who is behind the curtain.
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09-25-2015, 10:30 PM
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#68
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Aug 20, 2010
Location: From hotel to hotel
Posts: 9,059
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducbutter
My condolences to your students. Your grasp of stats isn't any better than your grasp of fact.
When the margin of error is greater than the alleged anomoly, it is not statistically clear if there even is an anomly, as is the case for 2015.
When you say a particular year was the warmest on record one day and the next day say that what you said yesterday only has a 38% chance of being true you've admitted that chances are, what said was not true. Therefore no anomly again. This was the case in 2014. The temperature trend is flat. It has been for 18 plus years.
As for storms, no upward trend in frequency or severity. Hurricane intensity and frequency trending down. Artic sea ice has increased %47 percent since 2012. More ice, more older ice.
You know bupkis. Fool.
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I posted quite a fair bit about storm intensity over the past decades, and the data is readily available if you care to look. Intensity is up.
The ice locations are seriously different than they were 20 or 40 years ago, due to very different temperature gradients than before--otherwise known as"change".
"More older ice"? Really? Are you telling me we have abnormally aging ice? That truly would be weird, don't you think?
And I very clearly said that I would base nothing on a single data point--so no, my point is much broader than the 2015 data point.
I love how the myopic folks from big oil states seem to be the folks most apt to say "there is money to be made in the fear mongering of climate change". Wonder who profits from pretending all is well?
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09-25-2015, 10:56 PM
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#69
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Valued Poster
Join Date: May 20, 2010
Location: Wichita
Posts: 28,730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by i'va biggen
I have, check the people who live in Barrow Alaska. Check their sea ice cam.
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What part of "satellite photographs" did you fail to understand?
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09-25-2015, 11:05 PM
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#70
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Account Disabled
Join Date: Jan 20, 2011
Location: kansas
Posts: 28,773
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy
What part of "satellite photographs" did you fail to understand?
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What part of "I did " did you fail to understand? Arctic ice reached it's annual max on March 21 2014, it was the fifth lowest in 38 years.
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09-25-2015, 11:28 PM
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#71
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Valued Poster
Join Date: May 20, 2010
Location: Wichita
Posts: 28,730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by i'va biggen
What part of "I did " did you fail to understand? Arctic ice reached it's annual max on March 21 2014, it was the fifth lowest in 38 years. 
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The ice cap is growing. The earth is not warming. Over the past several thousands of years, the ice has fluctuated from no ice to covering most of North America and back again. 38 years isn't even a blip in climate modeling. Tell your friends in Barrow not to worry. The ice will be in sight soon.
Worry about something important, LittleEva, like why people point and laugh at you while you're hiking the mountains in Kansas.
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09-26-2015, 01:03 AM
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#72
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Account Disabled
Join Date: Apr 7, 2015
Location: Down by the River
Posts: 8,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rey Lengua
How many cocks do you hold during one of your orgies or bukakke sessions ? Lots of the folks at U of Arkansas want to know, and THEY'RE willing to stop by the 'holes for your "therapy" !! Play that rusty trombone for them, woomby !
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You can fit so many cocks in your ass, you look like a peacock.
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09-26-2015, 01:08 AM
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#73
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Account Disabled
Join Date: Apr 7, 2015
Location: Down by the River
Posts: 8,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DSK
You are the one with the anger issues, and I suspect you wet your bed, start fires, and are cruel to animals. Lame attempt at deflection, you miserable cock sucker.
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A lame attempt at deflection, says the guy who calls everyone a miserable cocksucker. Shock therapy
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09-26-2015, 01:10 AM
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#74
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Account Disabled
Join Date: Apr 7, 2015
Location: Down by the River
Posts: 8,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducbutter
No money grab? It's called Cap and Trade. It's not here yet, but.... Do you deny that's a goal of the environmental left? And clearly that money and power would go to the "Gubmint" and bureaucrats.
There's also a lot of grant money out there for climate scientists. Billions in fact. Of course, those monies would dry up pretty quickly if it's found that the recent warming was not related to human activity and we therefore don't any control over the climate or it's changes. Do you seriously want to deny that climatolgists would have no incentive to find in favor of catastrophoic anthropogenic warming? Seems naive.
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Scientists live to prove other scientists wrong. That's not naive, that's the simple truth. There is no great conspiracy.
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09-26-2015, 01:50 AM
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#75
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jun 25, 2012
Location: Ahead of you.
Posts: 930
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Quote:
Originally Posted by i'va biggen
Perfect, a pic of Dorothy and Toto, wonder who is behind the curtain.
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The National Snow and Ice Data Center.
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