IHME COVID-19 Model

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...-starting-peak

This is the forecast for their April 5 update. They now have the peak occurring on April 20 at 72 deaths per day.

April 5th 23
April 6th 25
April 7th 29
April 8th 33
April 9th 37
April 10th 39
April 11th 47
April 12th 46
April 13th 54
April 14th 57
April 15th 59
April 16th 58
April 17th 65
April 18th 70
April 19th 71
April 20th 72

Last death: May 31, 2020
Total deaths: 2025

Reasons for changes (not specific to Texas):

http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...-starting-peak

They freely change the forecast and give no discussion about how wrong they were the day before, other than to say they are even more accurate every day. That's why I published their numbers on April 4th - to show the inaccuracies of their model and their failure to be responsible for the panic they have caused.

A fucking fourth grader could throw a dart at a board and have better predictions.

To base an unprecedented shutdown of the US economy that caused trillions in losses and no doubt busted many businesses on these amateurs is fucking stupid.

The only question is should they be shot or just put in jail?

[HoeHummer]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

They freely change the forecast and give no discussion about how wrong they were the day before, other than to say they are even more accurate every day. That's why I published their numbers on April 4th - to show the inaccuracies of their model and their failure to be responsible for the panic they have caused.

A fucking fourth grader could throw a dart at a board and have better predictions.

To base an unprecedented shutdown of the US economy that caused trillions in losses and no doubt busted many businesses on these amateurs is fucking stupid.

The only question is should they be shot or just put in jail?

Skinny fourth grader, JL? Creep

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

They freely change the forecast and give no discussion about how wrong they were the day before, other than to say they are even more accurate every day. That's why I published their numbers on April 4th - to show the inaccuracies of their model and their failure to be responsible for the panic they have caused.

A fucking fourth grader could throw a dart at a board and have better predictions.

To base an unprecedented shutdown of the US economy that caused trillions in losses and no doubt busted many businesses on these amateurs is fucking stupid.

The only question is should they be shot or just put in jail?

I don't see how they caused a panic. Their numbers for deaths are lower than other peoples' estimates, if you believe what Fauci and Birx said. They were only predicting an outcome 40% or 50% worse than a bad flu season.

The purpose of the model is to forecast the number of ICU beds and ventilators needed. They started out doing this just in the state of Washington, and that's their primary mandate. Then they expanded to the USA on a state-by-state basis.

They have to estimate when people occupy and leave hospital beds to forecast equipment and room needs. That in turn means they have to estimate when people will die. So the number of deaths is just a byproduct of what they're mainly after.

As to causing panic, if people get overly concerned and spend too much on masks and ventilators and the like and set up hospital beds that won't ever be needed, so what. The money spent on that is a drop in the bucket compared to everything else. Their numbers caused me to STOP panicking. I had figured we were possibly looking at a few hundred thousand deaths -- not as large as cancer and heart disease but still pretty significant.

They changed their numbers for Texas a lot in the last week, right. That's what you're supposed to do when you get new data. Italy and Spain turned the curve so that brought their numbers down, a lot for Texas but not a lot for the USA.

If you want someone to go after for causing panic pick Imperial College. They came up with the widely quoted estimates, 2 million deaths in the USA if we did nothing.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I don't see how they caused a panic. Their numbers for deaths are lower than other peoples' estimates, if you believe what Fauci and Birx said. They were only predicting an outcome 40% or 50% worse than a bad flu season.

The purpose of the model is to forecast the number of ICU beds and ventilators needed. They started out doing this just in the state of Washington, and that's their primary mandate. Then they expanded to the USA on a state-by-state basis.

They have to estimate when people occupy and leave hospital beds to forecast equipment and room needs. That in turn means they have to estimate when people will die. So the number of deaths is just a byproduct of what they're mainly after.

As to causing panic, if people get overly concerned and spend too much on masks and ventilators and the like and set up hospital beds that won't ever be needed, so what. The money spent on that is a drop in the bucket compared to everything else. Their numbers caused me to STOP panicking. I had figured we were possibly looking at a few hundred thousand deaths -- not as large as cancer and heart disease but still pretty significant.

They changed their numbers for Texas a lot in the last week, right. That's what you're supposed to do when you get new data. Italy and Spain turned the curve so that brought their numbers down, a lot for Texas but not a lot for the USA.

If you want someone to go after for causing panic pick Imperial College. They came up with the widely quoted estimates, 2 million deaths in the USA if we did nothing.

If I bet on a football game and get the Cowboys -3, and they score three touchdowns in the first quarter, can I double the bet?

No, I should have gotten in right with the data everyone had at the beginning. They basically just guessed and trillions were wagered.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

Skinny fourth grader, JL? Creep

You don't really understand context, do you?

fxxxxt

[HoeHummer]

Can’t use that term anymore, can yous, yous big tough man? Maybe yous can just go make a health shake,,, don’t forget the sardines ! LOLLING!

Speaking of fxxxts...



Yous can start mixing a batch now, JL!

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

You did notice yesterday that they dropped their previous forecasts and model for a new and improved version, where they slashed the numbers back about 35%. Right?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

You did notice yesterday that they dropped their previous forecasts and model for a new and improved version, where they slashed the numbers back about 35%. Right?

Yeah, That's what we're arguing about. I don't think they dropped their model, they just updated their forecast with additional data, including Spain and Italy turning the corner and Texas implementing their definition of stay at home rules.

They did drop their estimate of USA deaths by 13% and Texas deaths by 68%. I believe they're responding to additional data and providing a valuable service to hospitals and policy makers. Friendly Fred believes they should be hanged, drawn and quartered.

You go back about 10 days and their best case estimates for Texas indicated we'd get by with no shortage of hospital beds. Total forecasted deaths were around 5,000. Fast forward to their April 1 update, and the best case estimate was 6392 deaths and a shortage of about 230 ICU beds. Then on April 5, they updated their estimates and are now showing plenty of beds and 2025 estimated deaths.

Given that 189,000 people die in Texas in a year, it's hard to see how their estimates represent fear mongering, especially when the purpose of their work is to help prepare hospitals to have enough beds and equipment. When the hospitals don't you end up with situations like NYC, and if that happens enough those who like Trump can kiss any chance of his re-election goodbye.

[oeb11]

Well Tiny - go vote for Biden and Bernie 2020- after all - the promise is - "It is cheaper, and U can keep Ur doctor!" - among other Lies.

When the DPST achieve control of the House, Senate, and POTUS - it is the end of multi-party representative democracy - and the start of Orwellian DPST control of the Populace.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Well Tiny - go vote for Biden and Bernie 2020- after all - the promise is - "It is cheaper, and U can keep Ur doctor!" - among other Lies.

When the DPST achieve control of the House, Senate, and POTUS - it is the end of multi-party representative democracy - and the start of Orwellian DPST control of the Populace.

You didn't understand my post. Trump's reaction to the coronavirus has played into the Democrats hands. The USA spends almost 20% of GDP on health care. People expect their insurance or Medicare to pay for hugely expensive medical care regardless of whether it's cost effective. What do you think is going to happen if people can't get ICU beds? If people are dying without getting ventilators (even though there's an 80% chance they'll croak anyway if they do get them)?

It's looking like Trump may lose Florida unless he can improve the public's perception of how he's handling this. You've got a lot of older people, Republican voters, who are scared shitless:

https://www.politico.com/states/flor...-state-1272327

Do I prefer that Democrats control the presidency, the Senate and the House? Hell no. But if Biden wins the presidency and the Republicans control the Senate I won't be weeping. That might just be preferable to what we've got now. As WTF pointed out before he left, when you've got split control of government the politicians aren't as inclined to spend us into oblivion. And Trump is not the ideal president if the USA is going through something like what it is now. I would have far preferred Kasich or Cruz.

[oeb11]

Kasich - agreed. Cruz - not so much - although he seems to have settled down in the last couple of years.

I do feel Trump has handled things better than H.., or any DPST is capable of.

particularly in face of virulent back-stabbing hatred from the DPST's.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Tiny

..That's what we're arguing about. I...

Yesterday: Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), predicted that the death toll from the Chinese coronavirus will be “much, much, much lower” than the models have projected due to Americans following social distancing recommendations.

For the thinking impaired: This means that thanks to the foresight, strategic planning, leadership and tactical maneuvers of GEPOTUS and his assembled team, many, many more American lives will be saved, albeit it may, unfortunately, include too many of those with the preexisting condition (morbidity) of Stage-5 TDS, which remains incurable.

Two quick thoughts:

1. I'd like to see Joe "Placeholder" Biden read either of the above sentences from a teleprompter (yeah, right)
2. Looks ya'll gonna need a bigger pipe to smoke it in

Sorry for your loss fellas.
time anyone?

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Yeah, That's what we're arguing about. I don't think they dropped their model, they just updated their forecast with additional data, including Spain and Italy turning the corner and Texas implementing their definition of stay at home rules.

They did drop their estimate of USA deaths by 13% and Texas deaths by 68%. I believe they're responding to additional data and providing a valuable service to hospitals and policy makers. Friendly Fred believes they should be hanged, drawn and quartered.

You go back about 10 days and their best case estimates for Texas indicated we'd get by with no shortage of hospital beds. Total forecasted deaths were around 5,000. Fast forward to their April 1 update, and the best case estimate was 6392 deaths and a shortage of about 230 ICU beds. Then on April 5, they updated their estimates and are now showing plenty of beds and 2025 estimated deaths.

Given that 189,000 people die in Texas in a year, it's hard to see how their estimates represent fear mongering, especially when the purpose of their work is to help prepare hospitals to have enough beds and equipment. When the hospitals don't you end up with situations like NYC, and if that happens enough those who like Trump can kiss any chance of his re-election goodbye.

If they are still massaging their model and trying to get it to a point it is accurate, maybe the US Government should use a different model!

Hang'Em High!

[friendly fred]

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Let's track the accuracy from today for the IHME COVID-19 Model for Texas. They change the model constantly and likely won't admit their mistakes 10-30 days from now, so let's put it down for the record for Texas.

Based upon their model the US is destroying trillions in economic activity and creating trillions in new debt for our grandkids to be slaves to pay.

They say on May 6th we will have 161 deaths per day.

Start is April 4th.(I should have put 22 deaths here because on April 5th I got the April 4th results)

Date projected actual
April 4th ? actual 22
April 5th 20 (deaths per day) actual 13 deaths
April 6th 22 actual 14 they blew it
April 7th 26
April 8th 29
April 9th 33
April 10th 37
April 11th 41
April 12th 46
April 13th 51
April 14th 56
April 15th 62
April 16th 67
April 17th 73
April 18th 79
April 19th 86
April 20th 92
April 21st 98
April 22nd 104
April 23rd 110
April 24th 116
April 25th 122
April 26th 128
April 27th 133
April 28th 138
April 29th 143
April 30th 147
May 1st 150
May 2nd 154
May 3rd 156
May 4th 158
May 5th 160

If the intention is to "track the accuracy from today" then their most recent estimates should be used. It's your thread though, cherry pick if you want.

On March 31 their forecast for Texas was lower than the numbers above and on April 6 it was lower too. Right now their forecasted peak is 72 deaths on April 20. 517 people die on an average day in Texas from other causes.

As to the debt and becoming slaves, you can blame the CDC, the FDA and the rest of the federal government including Donald Trump. If they'd truly been on top of this we'd be like South Korea with a functioning economy.

Thinking we could have just gone about business like usual and ignored this is living in a fantasy land. It wouldn't work politically. People would become pissed as hell. You can blame the presidential administrations (Trump's and his predecessors) for more than half of the debt and economic problems. The presidency had the power to plan and prepare for an epidemic and then aggressively push testing, tracing and isolation when we knew we had one. The economy would be in much better shape and Trump wouldn't be signing bills to create trillions in new debt.