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04-25-2020, 01:01 PM
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#76
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
That’s a fools errand and doesn’t determine the outcome. Are you willing to take my bet? Trump wins, you go away from the PF, if he loses, I go away for three months. It worked out for me in 2016. Are you in Speedy?
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This is the 3rd time I've told you I don't make such bets. If I was certain of a Biden win I would say so. I am not so why would I bet on it? Betting parlors have Trump as a solid favorite at this time.
I will make the following "gentlemen's bets" with you.Of course assuming Biden is the candidate:
Biden wins the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton won it in 2016
Trump gets less electoral votes than he did in 2016
Biden wins Michigan
Trump wins Texas but by less of a margin than the 9% he won it by in 2016. More like 5% range.
Democrats maintain control of the House
Repulicans maintain control of the Senate but the current 53-47 margin narrows by 1 or 2
gentleman's bet (plural gentlemen's bets) A bet in which no money is bet; only the honor of the two parties is at stake. There is no need for proof that one party's side of the bet has been fulfilled; he or she is taken at their word.
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04-25-2020, 01:11 PM
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#77
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
This is the 3rd time I've told you I don't make such bets. If I was certain of a Biden win I would say so. I am not so why would I bet on it? Betting parlors have Trump as a solid favorite at this time.
I will make the following "gentlemen's bets" with you.Of course assuming Biden is the candidate:
Biden wins the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton won it in 2016
Trump gets less electoral votes than he did in 2016
Biden wins Michigan
Trump wins Texas but by less of a margin than the 9% he won it by in 2016. More like 5% range.
Democrats maintain control of the House
Repulicans maintain control of the Senate but the current 53-47 margin narrows by 1 or 2
gentleman's bet (plural gentlemen's bets) A bet in which no money is bet; only the honor of the two parties is at stake. There is no need for proof that one party's side of the bet has been fulfilled; he or she is taken at their word.
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Well, at least you admitted a couple things. One, you’re not confident that Biden will win. Two, the betting parlors have Trump winning. Betting parlors are more accurate than polls. But let’s simplify this, I’ll bet Trump will win no matter who the Dems put up. A Gentleman’s bet of course.
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04-25-2020, 01:28 PM
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#78
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Well, at least you admitted a couple things. One, you’re not confident that Biden will win. Two, the betting parlors have Trump winning. Betting parlors are more accurate than polls. But let’s simplify this, I’ll bet Trump will win no matter who the Dems put up. A Gentleman’s bet of course.
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I never said I was confident of a Biden win. I think he is positioned well to pull off the victory but most polls at the state level are within the margin of error. One fact I just learned -- at this point in 2016 Clinton led Trump in the polls by more than Biden leads Trump right now. A positive for Trump supporters. Polls in the last 2-3 weeks have moved in Biden's direction. In 6+ months they can go back and forth several times. And I've mentioned Trump leading in the betting parlors on at least 2 occasions previously.
I am hoping for a Biden victory in November and if you want to make a genleman's bet, fine. You were right in 2016 and I was wrong. I believe I was right in 2018 and you were wrong. At least on the House side.
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04-25-2020, 04:07 PM
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#79
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
I never said I was confident of a Biden win. I think he is positioned well to pull off the victory but most polls at the state level are within the margin of error. One fact I just learned -- at this point in 2016 Clinton led Trump in the polls by more than Biden leads Trump right now. A positive for Trump supporters. Polls in the last 2-3 weeks have moved in Biden's direction. In 6+ months they can go back and forth several times. And I've mentioned Trump leading in the betting parlors on at least 2 occasions previously.
I am hoping for a Biden victory in November and if you want to make a genleman's bet, fine. You were right in 2016 and I was wrong. I believe I was right in 2018 and you were wrong. At least on the House side.
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Nah, I knew history was on the side of Democrats taking the House. You didn’t have a genius to predict that. I did predict the Senate would increase. So it’s on. A tepid bet from you. Because you put nothing on the line. I’m ok with that.
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04-25-2020, 04:26 PM
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#80
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Nah, I knew history was on the side of Democrats taking the House. You didn’t have a genius to predict that. I did predict the Senate would increase. So it’s on. A tepid bet from you. Because you put nothing on the line. I’m ok with that.
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The only other person on this forum other than me who is on record as predicting the Democrats would win the House and Republicans would increaase their margin in the Senate was eccielover.
I remember other Trump supporters predicted Republicans to hold the House with several predicting Republicans increasing their margin. Clinton supporters predicted Democrats taking back both the House and Senate. If you say you also predicted Democrats would win back the House I will believe you.
Has anyone taken you up on your offer yet? Staying off eccie for a determined amount of time?
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04-25-2020, 04:34 PM
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#81
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Habeas Corpus Suspender
Join Date: May 5, 2013
Location: Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Posts: 36,100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
I will make the following "gentlemen's bets" with you.Of course assuming Biden is the candidate:
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that's a false bet.. where are you getting the other Gentleman?
I think Biden would win today, but there is more than 6 months to go.. no way would I call a Victor now. either Candidate could drop out for Health reasons alone. and the curve of the Corona will likely be the margin of victory.
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04-25-2020, 05:30 PM
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#82
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
The only other person on this forum other than me who is on record as predicting the Democrats would win the House and Republicans would increaase their margin in the Senate was eccielover.
I remember other Trump supporters predicted Republicans to hold the House with several predicting Republicans increasing their margin. Clinton supporters predicted Democrats taking back both the House and Senate. If you say you also predicted Democrats would win back the House I will believe you.
Has anyone taken you up on your offer yet? Staying off eccie for a determined amount of time?
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Speedy, I said in 2018 that 40 Republicans were either retiring or not seeking another term. That was a fact. I said that was too big of hill to climb. I acknowledged it. So don’t try and tell me what I did or didn’t say. I offered the bet to HoeDummer. He lost last time but tried to sneak on with another handle, which he got banned for anyways. I’ll just settle for our “gentlemen’s” bet. Until somebody else steps up.
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04-25-2020, 05:50 PM
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#83
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BANNED
Join Date: Oct 7, 2019
Location: North
Posts: 3,942
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Who in his rights mind would take a bet with yous, bamsy?
That would be abouts as laughable as challenging fredsy to a fist fights.
LOLLING!
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04-25-2020, 05:53 PM
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#84
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
Who in his rights mind would take a bet with yous, bamsy?
That would be abouts as laughable as challenging fredsy to a fist fights.
LOLLING!
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You did last time and lost. What fake handle where you when you welshed on the bet and got banned?
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04-25-2020, 05:54 PM
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#85
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BANNED
Join Date: Oct 7, 2019
Location: North
Posts: 3,942
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Prove your claims, good buddy. Your blather is neverelephant.
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04-25-2020, 06:29 PM
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#86
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
Prove your claims, good buddy. Your blather is neverelephant.
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You and I know it’s the truth. I don’t have to prove anything. Whens Yssup coming back?
BAHAHAHAHA
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04-25-2020, 11:18 PM
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#87
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BANNED
Join Date: Oct 7, 2019
Location: North
Posts: 3,942
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Keyboard courage, big shooter. Yous got nothing. And we all know that.
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04-26-2020, 01:46 AM
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#88
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Oct 7, 2010
Location: Planet Earth
Posts: 11,180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
Who in his rights mind would take a bet with yous, bamsy?
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I can't speak for others, but I know I wouldn't. I'm not waiting around every week for a disability check like bambi probably does at his trailer park. I'd never see any money with any bet with him because his old fat closeted gay hillbilly ass has none.
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04-26-2020, 06:23 AM
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#89
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucas McCain
I can't speak for others, but I know I wouldn't. I'm not waiting around every week for a disability check like bambi probably does at his trailer park. I'd never see any money with any bet with him because his old fat closeted gay hillbilly ass has none.
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I’ve had a great career. You on the other hand, live in a fantasy world that nobody believes. Sad.
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04-26-2020, 07:01 AM
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#90
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Speedy, I said in 2018 that 40 Republicans were either retiring or not seeking another term. That was a fact. I said that was too big of hill to climb. I acknowledged it. So don’t try and tell me what I did or didn’t say. I offered the bet to HoeDummer. He lost last time but tried to sneak on with another handle, which he got banned for anyways. I’ll just settle for our “gentlemen’s” bet. Until somebody else steps up.
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The question is, did you predict prior to the November 2018 election that Democrats would regain control of the House or did you justify the Republican losses after the election?
As I said, I don't remember anyone else calling the election in 2018 correctly other than eccielover. I do remember you stating that 40 Republicans were retiring, but did you make a prediction as to who would win control of the House? The Republicans lost 40 seats but they were not all the seats of the 40 retiring Republicans. 21 incumbent Republicans lost their seats.
Plus, I could only find 23 House Republicans who were retiring in 2018. And 3 Republican Senators:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...gress-in-2018/
Another breakdown: 23 Republican House members retired. 7 ran for Senate seats. 4 ran for Governor seats.
https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_U.S....ection_in_2018
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