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04-26-2020, 08:14 AM
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#91
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
The question is, did you predict prior to the November 2018 election that Democrats would regain control of the House or did you justify the Republican losses after the election?
As I said, I don't remember anyone else calling the election in 2018 correctly other than eccielover. I do remember you stating that 40 Republicans were retiring, but did you make a prediction as to who would win control of the House? The Republicans lost 40 seats but they were not all the seats of the 40 retiring Republicans. 21 incumbent Republicans lost their seats.
Plus, I could only find 23 House Republicans who were retiring in 2018. And 3 Republican Senators:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...gress-in-2018/
Another breakdown: 23 Republican House members retired. 7 ran for Senate seats. 4 ran for Governor seats.
https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_U.S....ection_in_2018
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Speedy, if you scroll to the bottom of your second link it shows 37 Republicans didn’t seek re-election. I missed it by three. At the time, it was reported that 40 were not seeking re-election. I’m not going to rehash old news. But I will say Obama lost 63 house seats in his first midterm and still got re-elected. So we have our “gentleman’s “ bet. Good luck.
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04-26-2020, 08:51 AM
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#92
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Speedy, if you scroll to the bottom of your second link it shows 37 Republicans didn’t seek re-election. I missed it by three. At the time, it was reported that 40 were not seeking re-election. I’m not going to rehash old news. But I will say Obama lost 63 house seats in his first midterm and still got re-elected. So we have our “gentleman’s “ bet. Good luck.
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True, but all 37 did not "retire". They aimed for higher political offices. Whatever, only about 1/2 of those that did not go for reelection ended up losing their seats.
I agree that the Democratic losses in 2010 were horrific. And Obama got reelected. But by the time the 2012 election came around, Obama's approval rating was positive. By quite a bit. No POTUS running for reelection has won with a negative approval rating at the time of the election. Bush in 1992 and Carter in 1980. But I don't doubt that Trump could be the first.
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04-26-2020, 10:05 AM
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#93
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
True, but all 37 did not "retire". They aimed for higher political offices. Whatever, only about 1/2 of those that did not go for reelection ended up losing their seats.
I agree that the Democratic losses in 2010 were horrific. And Obama got reelected. But by the time the 2012 election came around, Obama's approval rating was positive. By quite a bit. No POTUS running for reelection has won with a negative approval rating at the time of the election. Bush in 1992 and Carter in 1980. But I don't doubt that Trump could be the first.
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Speedy, don’t play semantics. 37 Republicans didn’t seek re-election. That’s the bottom line. The Democrats flipped 23 of those seats which were enough to flip the house. That’s all that matters. Trump will never have great popularity numbers with 90% negative coverage. Our bet stands. BTW, Obama lost both chambers by the end of his administration. Plus 1000 seats nationwide.
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04-26-2020, 10:14 AM
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#94
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BANNED
Join Date: Oct 7, 2019
Location: North
Posts: 3,942
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Semantics? SR was responding to your semantics.
Or were yous just being sarcastic like Trump?
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04-26-2020, 10:25 AM
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#95
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jul 24, 2014
Location: Pittsburgh
Posts: 3,267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Speedy, don’t play semantics. 37 Republicans didn’t seek re-election. That’s the bottom line. The Democrats flipped 23 of those seats which were enough to flip the house. That’s all that matters. Trump will never have great popularity numbers with 90% negative coverage. Our bet stands. BTW, Obama lost both chambers by the end of his administration. Plus 1000 seats nationwide.
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2018 is all about "semantics" to many regarding a first mid-term for a POTUS.
In the end Republicans managed very well.
Lost an average number of House seats which flipped the house - not unusual, Gained in the Senate which is somewhat unusual and as a result has somewhat reset the Judicial System toward conservative Constitutional justices all the way up to the SCOTUS.
Some state and local turnover but not excessive.
Dem turnout was high, but that enthusiasm is waning especially among the young overall with Biden as the presumed candidate.
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04-26-2020, 10:46 AM
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#96
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
Semantics? SR was responding to your semantics.
Or were yous just being sarcastic like Trump?
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Try to stay out of legitimate discussions. YOUS not up to it.
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04-26-2020, 11:17 AM
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#97
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BANNED
Join Date: Oct 7, 2019
Location: North
Posts: 3,942
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Try to stay out of legitimate discussions. YOUS not up to it.
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Rudeness, stalking or both, bud?
Yous are truly triggered by anything that debunks the words of your supreme leader.
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04-26-2020, 11:33 AM
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#98
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 16, 2010
Location: Texas
Posts: 51,038
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
Rudeness, stalking or both, ...
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You do both. It's too bad you're not that prolific with thongs!
But running your mouth seems to be your strong suit.
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04-26-2020, 11:35 AM
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#99
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BANNED
Join Date: Jul 7, 2010
Location: Dive Bar
Posts: 45,243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
Rudeness, stalking or both, bud?
Yous are truly triggered by anything that debunks the words of your supreme leader.
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YOUS brought me up Hoes. Looks like YOUS stalking me. Like YOUS been for 6yrs and why Yssup is on the bench for an extended bancation. Now quit fucking up every thread.
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04-26-2020, 01:21 PM
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#100
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BANNED
Join Date: Oct 7, 2019
Location: North
Posts: 3,942
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On cue...
I recommends yous look at the OP, bud, and tell me how it’s possible to be “fucking up” this thread?
It’s a violation from the first post.
And, again, quit lying about me. Yous got nothing but whining.
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04-26-2020, 01:37 PM
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#101
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 27, 2018
Location: Back in Texas!
Posts: 7,196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
Who in his rights mind would take a bet with yous, bamsy?
That would be abouts as laughable as challenging fredsy to a fist fights.
LOLLING!
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Were you to accept my offer the pain I would inflict upon you would be unbearable - so I can understand your reticence.
L'Shana Haba'ah
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04-26-2020, 04:18 PM
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#102
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BANNED
Join Date: Oct 7, 2019
Location: North
Posts: 3,942
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Quote:
Originally Posted by friendly fred
Were you to accept my offer the pain I would inflict upon you would be unbearable - so I can understand your reticence.
L'Shana Haba'ah
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WTF does that gibberish mean?
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04-26-2020, 05:40 PM
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#103
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 27, 2018
Location: Back in Texas!
Posts: 7,196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HoeHummer
WTF does that gibberish mean?
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Good one!
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04-27-2020, 07:19 AM
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#104
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Valued Poster
Join Date: Dec 31, 2009
Location: Georgetown, Texas
Posts: 9,350
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bambino
Speedy, don’t play semantics. 37 Republicans didn’t seek re-election. That’s the bottom line. The Democrats flipped 23 of those seats which were enough to flip the house. That’s all that matters. Trump will never have great popularity numbers with 90% negative coverage. Our bet stands. BTW, Obama lost both chambers by the end of his administration. Plus 1000 seats nationwide.
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Can't argue with you on the loss of seats under Obama. 2020 will be interesting beyond the POTUS election. Your state of Pennsylvania may lose more Republican House seats if I remember the predictions correctly. Texas could also lose Republican seats. There is a better than 50-50 chance Democrats increase their lead in the House which I didn't see happening a while ago.
https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-...house-forecast
So Trump could win the presidency in 2020 and lose seats in both the House and Senate. Democrats, after the debacle in 2010, won 2 Senate seats and 8 House seats in 2012.
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04-27-2020, 07:38 AM
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#105
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Premium Access
Join Date: Jun 9, 2010
Location: Subic Bay, Philippines
Posts: 2,838
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