The Trump Economy

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

How many Solyndra's does it take for even the most ardent TDS sufferers - to see the light?Apologies for spoolging all over another of their narratives.
But in my defense, The Green New SCAM was always just a money laundering operation.

Gas prices are down. Electricity prices are up. Some grocery prices are down, imported goods are up. It’s a mixed bag right now in the economy. I would be very hesitant to take a victory lap.

[eyecu2]

GAs around me isn't down. It's up along with my electric bill. For a while there it hit 3.09, but it's up to 3.52 locally and the lowest I've seen is 3.43 at Sams club. www.gasbuddy.com

Victory LAP----fucking hardly.


Oh -And the lowest jobs number in a LONG time.
I don't know what market indicators you look at, or are they the ones that TRUMP personally changed with a big sharpie?

---- yet housing starts are off. Tourism is WAY off. Oil drilling off, and reductions in employment as well increases in unemployment.

[1blackman1]

Isn’t US oil production below the Biden admin level? I thought we were drill baby drill.

[1blackman1]

360b deficit for the month of August. I thought the Trump government cut costs of running the government. That’s sound like a lot of deficit spending when it’s supposed to be less than what it was under Biden (hint, similar deficit as last August). 1.9T deficit for the year to date. Republicans Love the deficit spending I guess, since they control the government completely, this is on them.

The bright side is the 145b in tariff money I suppose brought in for the year through August. So at that pace all that tariff money - tax on business that gets passed to the consumer so actually a regressive consumer tax. - will pay off about a months worth of deficits.

Also bankruptcies, including business bankruptcies are on the rise and higher than last year or the year prior. I wasn't aware that Republicans liked deatroying small businesses but here we have it. And the greatest part is the worst things about the Big Beautiful Bill haven't kicked in yet.

I am glad the fat lady hasn't sang and we aren't in a position to call the Trump economy bad yet. I mean when it becomes even more clear how bad it's going what will we describe it as terrible, horrendous, what?

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

.

.... This. ....

#### Salty

[RX792P]

US Inflation Rate is at 2.92%, compared to 2.70% last month and 2.53% last year.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% over the prior year in August and 0.4% from July, with food, gas, and shelter costs all marching higher.

Grocery prices surged 0.5% in August and are 3.2% higher than a year ago.
Coffee 20.9% higher than it was this time last year.
Ground beef is 12.8% higher than in August 2024, and steaks are up 16.6%.
Eggs 10.9% higher year over year.

Electricity prices are rising at double the rate of inflation, and are currently 5.5 percent higher than this time last year.

Airline fares soared almost 6% — a monthly increase not seen since the height of the 2022 inflation shock.

Oil is down... regular-grade gasoline is expected to sit at about $3.10 per gallon this year and $2.90 per gallon in 2026
OTOH, drill baby drill ain't gonna happen with these oil prices and gas ain't $1.99/gal no matter how often Trump lies about it.

In the week ending September 6th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years.


OTOH, I don't know how it's doing it, but stock market surges
US stocks closed at record highs on Thursday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) led stocks higher, rising 1.4%, or over 600 points, and closing above 46,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose over 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained around 0.7% for its fourth-consecutive record close and first time closing above the 22,000 mark.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

360b deficit for the month of August. I thought the Trump government cut costs of running the government. That’s sound like a lot of deficit spending when it’s supposed to be less than what it was under Biden (hint, similar deficit as last August). 1.9T deficit for the year to date. Republicans Love the deficit spending I guess, since they control the government completely, this is on them.

The bright side is the 145b in tariff money I suppose brought in for the year through August. So at that pace all that tariff money - tax on business that gets passed to the consumer so actually a regressive consumer tax. - will pay off about a months worth of deficits...

That's right! Here are the federal budget deficits in August, 2024 and August, 2025 according to Reuters:

August 2024: $380 billion
August 2025: $345 billion
Difference: $35 billion lower!

Annualize that, 12 x $35 billion, and you get a reduction of $420 billion in our deficit! That's enough to cut our budget deficit by over 20%! We'd turn from a fiscal basket case to just another big economy burdened by lots of debt.

What's happening here? Well, according to Reuters, Trump's tariffs pushed net customs receipts up by by $22.5 billion in August, 2025 versus the year ago period, to a total of $29.5 billion!

Blackman's statement that the YTD deficit to August 31 is $1.9 trillion, about the same as last year, is deceiving too. The federal fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. So, considering Biden didn't leave office until January, and considering the new President's policies weren't implemented until a few months afterwards, you could argue that Biden owns more of that $1.9 trillion deficit than Trump does. Not only that, but the fact that it's about the same as last year indicates the deficit is dropping in real (inflation adjusted) terms and as a % of GDP.

I might go so far as to say, "Thank You President Trump!" But since I believe tariffs suck big time I won't. In any event it's nice to see Blackman pointing out statistics that make Republicans look good for a change.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...it-2024-09-12/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...se-2025-09-11/

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

I am glad the fat lady hasn't sang and we aren't in a position to call the Trump economy bad yet. I mean when it becomes even more clear how bad it's going what will we describe it as terrible, horrendous, what?

Please note that the past participle of "to sing" is "sung." Next time you'll want to write, "The fat lady hasn't sung." You're welcome.

Btw, you're right that $345 billion or $360 billion annualized would be A LOT larger than past annual deficits. But please note that government revenues and probably expenditures are seasonal. More money comes pouring in during January, March, June, September and December when corporate and individual estimated taxes are due, and April when both estimated and final payments are owed. Revenue collection in August, the month you're quoting, is well below average. Thus the deficit should be well above average.

[Ducbutter]

Originally Posted by Tiny

That's right! Here are the federal budget deficits in August, 2024 and August, 2025 according to Reuters:

August 2024: $380 billion
August 2025: $345 billion
Difference: $35 billion lower!

Annualize that, 12 x $35 billion, and you get a reduction of $420 billion in our deficit! That's enough to cut our budget deficit by over 20%! We'd turn from a fiscal basket case to just another big economy burdened by lots of debt.

What's happening here? Well, according to Reuters, Trump's tariffs pushed net customs receipts up by by $22.5 billion in August, 2025 versus the year ago period, to a total of $29.5 billion!

Blackman's statement that the YTD deficit to August 31 is $1.9 trillion, about the same as last year, is deceiving too. The federal fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. So, considering Biden didn't leave office until January, and considering the new President's policies weren't implemented until a few months afterwards, you could argue that Biden owns more of that $1.9 trillion deficit than Trump does. Not only that, but the fact that it's about the same as last year indicates the deficit is dropping in real (inflation adjusted) terms and as a % of GDP.

I might go so far as to say, "Thank You President Trump!" But since I believe tariffs suck big time I won't. In any event it's nice to see Blackman pointing out statistics that make Republicans look good for a change.


https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...it-2024-09-12/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...se-2025-09-11/

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Isn’t US oil production below the Biden admin level? I thought we were drill baby drill.

Wish Monkey-Boy was still around. He could regale us with the prospecting and development cycles of new oil production.
Hint: it ain't 7 months.

[1blackman1]

Butter man, you’re wrong on the definition of year to date as I referred to it. Jan to current. Not past fiscal year was the 1.9T. So you might wanna fix ya laugh.

[RX792P]

The U.S. has collected $160.1 billion from tariffs from Jan 1 to Sept. 9

The U.S. federal government's deficit for August 2025 was $345 billion, which is a 15% decrease from August 2024.
For the fiscal year to date (October 2024 through August 2025), the deficit totaled $1.973 trillion, tracking as the third-highest on record, despite an increase in tariff collections.

Note tariff income is based on calendar year and annual deficit is based on fiscal year.

Bottom line...total federal tariff income for the first 8 months of CY2025 would pay only 46% of one month's federal deficit.

[Ducbutter]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Butter man, you’re wrong on the definition of year to date as I referred to it. Jan to current. Not past fiscal year was the 1.9T. So you might wanna fix ya laugh.

Your beef is with Tiny.
And I'll just leave this right here.

[1blackman1]

You’re correct. I didn’t realize you quoted Tiny

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Ducbutter

Your beef is with Tiny.
And I'll just leave this right here.

He doesn't feel comfortable confronting me directly when the subject's mostly about 5th grade math.