The Trump Economy

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by RX792P

The U.S. has collected $160.1 billion from tariffs from Jan 1 to Sept. 9

The U.S. federal government's deficit for August 2025 was $345 billion, which is a 15% decrease from August 2024.
For the fiscal year to date (October 2024 through August 2025), the deficit totaled $1.973 trillion, tracking as the third-highest on record, despite an increase in tariff collections.

Note tariff income is based on calendar year and annual deficit is based on fiscal year.

Bottom line...total federal tariff income for the first 8 months of CY2025 would pay only 46% of one month's federal deficit.

RXP, Likewise, I don't feel comfortable confronting you, especially after you put my name in the hat to head up DOGE.

However, here's an earlier reply,

Originally Posted by Tiny

The new tariffs except for part of the iron and steel levies didn't take effect until April or afterwards. That's 3-1/2 months. Annualize your 133.7 (Note: RXP updated to 160 billion as of September 9) and assume most of that was collected since April and you shouldn't have any problem getting to 300 billion. And yes, we're running deficits as a % of GDP of about 6%. $300 billion is only about 1% of GDP, so the tariffs aren't going to come close to getting us to where we need to be.

I'm reading the Tax Policy Center estimates the tariffs announced through August 18, 2025 will raise $339 billion in 2026, which would be the first full year they'd be in effect. The CBO's 10 year estimate is $3.3 to $4 trillion in additional revenue. And $339 trillion is around 18% of the projected 2026 federal budget deficit. That would be a great start.

However, I do hope the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs. I'm a fiscal hawk, but prefer to cut deficits with spending cuts, not by implementing a new tax that hurts employment and GDP growth, makes American businesses less competitive in world markets, lowers purchasing power, and promotes crony capitalism.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

360b deficit for the month of August. I thought the Trump government cut costs of running the government. That’s sound like a lot of deficit spending when it’s supposed to be less than what it was under Biden (hint, similar deficit as last August). 1.9T deficit for the year to date. Republicans Love the deficit spending I guess, since they control the government completely, this is on them.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Butter man, you’re wrong on the definition of year to date as I referred to it. Jan to current. Not past fiscal year was the 1.9T. So you might wanna fix ya laugh.

January to August was not $1.9 trillion. If you don't believe Reuters, how about ChatGPT. She's smarter than both of us put together!

Here are the calendar-year totals for the federal budget deficit (Jan–Aug, inclusive):

2025 (Jan–Aug): $1.262 trillion (sum of monthly deficits: Jan $128.6B, Feb $307.0B, Mar $160.5B, Apr −$258.4B, May $315.7B, Jun −$27.0B, Jul $291.1B, Aug $344.8B).

2024 (Jan–Aug): $1.387 trillion (Jan $21.9B, Feb $296.3B, Mar $236.6B, Apr −$209.5B, May $347.1B, Jun $71.0B, Jul $243.7B, Aug $380.1B).

Difference: 2025’s Jan–Aug deficit was about $124.8B smaller than 2024’s over the same months.

(All figures from Treasury’s Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 1


So that's a $125 billion reduction in the budget deficit in 2025 YTD, and Trump's tariffs didn't even go into effect until April and later. Remember that there's inflation and GDP growth. I figure nominal GDP probably is about 5% higher than last year. So the decline of the deficit as a % of GDP is even more impressive!

Please give a little more thought to your posts so I don't have to defend the tariffs. Yes, the Church of Tiny's main mission is to promote free markets and capitalism, but even more importantly, it defends the truth.

[VitaMan]

And who is paying these tariffs ? It is the American people and American businesses.


The discussion doesn't even begin to discuss the lost jobs and lost tax money from businesses shrinking or closing down.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

And who is paying these tariffs ? It is the American people and American businesses.


The discussion doesn't even begin to discuss the lost jobs and lost tax money from businesses shrinking or closing down.

... Businesses shrink and close-down every odd day, mate.
Either they don't have enough employees, or have the WRONG
employees (illegals) and have to shut down.
Or the people just aint buyin' their product.

So, no need to put THAT blame on tariffs.

And Tiny as been explainin' about the tariffs.
So, let's give things some more time.

... We already KNOW - the inflation rate is LOW! ...

#### Salty

[VitaMan]

You miss the mark.


Tariffs are causing businesses to shut down. You can read about it every day. Companies that have been in business for decades cannot make money.


Why is it people may not be buying their products ? Because they have become too expensive due to the extra tariff charged passed on to them.

[TalliaThomas]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

\
You need to always have 2 budgets:

The one the gives you the quality of live you deserve
AND
The one that keeps just the lights on, i.e. barest minimum.

You would be surprised have far apart those dollar amounts actually are.

For me.. those two budgets are closer than the norm. I'm a minimalist. Live in a paid off house (thankfully). With the exception of my almost paid off vehicle and minimal balance on student loans, I'm debt free.


As to the job search-- I've straight up told employers that I am comfortable with about a 40% paycut-- because even those jobs that are posted in this area.. are well below what I've made in the past. My industry is one where experience doesn't generally guarantee a higher salary-- your location and position are more important than experience. Years 1-5 can be a vast salary difference... but most folks I know from year 8 onward, are in similar salary bands as long as they are in the same part of the country and at the same position. There are always exceptions-- and segment of the industry plays a small part.


On a good front-- at least I have multiple income streams, so the lights will stay on. I just prefer as much W2 income as possible to offset the self employment tax.

[CPT Savajo]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The only way the USA is going to stay ahead of China as the world's #1 economic and military power is if its population grows (or declines less) than China's.

Tiny it's going to be an uphill fight because it's not only China, it's the BRICS nations who are aligned economically and militarily against the West/NATO. The way shit is shaping up in the Western World it almost seems like the West is being set up for collapse. Look at the Marxist/Communist ideology they're teaching kids in school like Critical Race Theory, Transgendered story reading hour, and LGBT propaganda. Complete bullshit! Confidence in the dollar is waning on a global scale whereas gold is smashing record after record on a near daily basis and you hear no word of it in the local or national news as if it's some secret so the Central Banks/nations/people in the know can continue to buy it up hand over fist as the system burns to the ground. The dollar is dying, gold is going straight up and the dollar is going to hell in a handbasket which could be said of all currencies around the globe. Trump has already signaled that he's going with stablecoins instead of returning the nation to a constitutional money system, possibly laying the groundwork for a CBDC in the future as many have speculated. The business strike penny will be phased out in 2027 and the nickel will follow next. They can't do both at the same time because that might alert the populace that something is going on. I don't think there is a clear path to save the US economy at this point, people better save themselves and if they don't they should not count on a life raft to be there for them if a time of need.

[RX792P]

Howard Lutnick can't seem to decide when the 'Trump economy' starts.

Back in July...

GDP just surged to 3% and the Trump Economy has officially arrived.

But this month, Lutnick moves the goal posts...

“You’re going to see it start in ’26 and it’s going to be full fire in ’27.”

OTOH, Lutnick does not appear to be the sharpest knife in the drawer in many cases.

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by RX792P

Howard Lutnick can't seem to decide when the 'Trump economy' starts.

Back in July...


But this month, Lutnick moves the goal posts...


OTOH, Lutnick does not appear to be the sharpest knife in the drawer in many cases.

Sadly, neither can Tiny or TC. Any bad numbers will be Biden’s until the next Dem takes office.

[Salty Again]

... What happened to all those liberal lad predictions 'round here??
Are they just forgotten??

... Those who told us that the tariffs would surely COLLAPSE
the Stock Market and the country would hit a Recession?? ...

#### Salty

[RX792P]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... What happened to all those liberal lad predictions 'round here??
Are they just forgotten??

... Those who told us that the tariffs would surely COLLAPSE
the Stock Market and the country would hit a Recession?? ...

#### Salty

Economists still see a significant probability of recession, though it varies widely.

J.P. Morgan: Sees a 40% probability of a recession by the end of 2025 due to extreme policies.
Goldman Sachs: Estimates U.S. recession odds at 30-35% in the coming year, a significant increase from earlier forecasts, primarily due to escalating trade conflicts.
Pimco: Believes tariffs have raised the probability of a recession to around 35%.
YCharts: Reports a current U.S. recession probability of approximately 28.85%.

I'm surprised the stock market continues to 'climb the wall of woe'.
But the stock market is not 'the economy'.
62% of Americans have stock market investments, but ownership is quite unequally distributed.

The full effect of tariffs has not yet been felt. Businesses have employed many short term tactics to minimize the impact, but time is running out for those short term workarounds.

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... What happened to all those liberal lad predictions 'round here??
Are they just forgotten??

... Those who told us that the tariffs would surely COLLAPSE
the Stock Market and the country would hit a Recession?? ...

#### Salty

Tariffs weren’t inacted as you may recall. Some have been. No 200% against China. Instead, what we’ve had are some tariffs that are hurting the economy more slowly than Trump’s initial attempt. Unemployment is up. Prices are up. We’ve had no good indicators under Trump.

[RX792P]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics...crease-revenue

The federal government's budget deficit reached $2 trillion for the current fiscal year as the deficit has widened by nearly $100 billion from last year.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its monthly budget update for August, which showed the deficit reached $1.989 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025. That amounts to a $92 billion increase in the deficit when compared with the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024.

Overall, federal spending was up by $391 billion from a year ago, an increase of 5%, while tax receipts rose $299 billion, or 7%, in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025.

The CBO said that customs duties collected were up $95 billion, or 137%, so far in this fiscal year compared with the same period in fiscal year 2024, and totaled $165 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025.

Individual income tax receipts were up by $181 billion, or 8%, and have totaled $2.357 trillion in fiscal year 2025 so far. Payroll taxes are up $48 billion, or 3%, and have totaled $1.615 trillion in the first 11 months of the fiscal year.

Corporate income taxes fell by $32 billion, or 8%, when compared with the same period last year.

Taking that budgetary move into account with the rest of its analysis, the CBO is currently estimating that the final budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 will total $1.9 trillion.

That would rank as the third-largest budget deficit in U.S. history, trailing only the fiscal year 2020 and Fiscal year 2021 deficits incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.

[RX792P]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics...crease-revenue

The federal government's budget deficit reached $2 trillion for the current fiscal year as the deficit has widened by nearly $100 billion from last year.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its monthly budget update for August, which showed the deficit reached $1.989 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025. That amounts to a $92 billion increase in the deficit when compared with the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024.

Overall, federal spending was up by $391 billion from a year ago, an increase of 5%, while tax receipts rose $299 billion, or 7%, in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025.

The CBO said that customs duties collected were up $95 billion, or 137%, so far in this fiscal year compared with the same period in fiscal year 2024, and totaled $165 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025.

Individual income tax receipts were up by $181 billion, or 8%, and have totaled $2.357 trillion in fiscal year 2025 so far. Payroll taxes are up $48 billion, or 3%, and have totaled $1.615 trillion in the first 11 months of the fiscal year.

Corporate income taxes fell by $32 billion, or 8%, when compared with the same period last year.

Taking that budgetary move into account with the rest of its analysis, the CBO is currently estimating that the final budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 will total $1.9 trillion.

That would rank as the third-largest budget deficit in U.S. history, trailing only the fiscal year 2020 and Fiscal year 2021 deficits incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... What happened to all those liberal lad predictions 'round here??
Are they just forgotten??

... Those who told us that the tariffs would surely COLLAPSE
the Stock Market and the country would hit a Recession?? ...

#### Salty

Hey Salty, We were lucky that the only countries that responded in kind to the tariffs were China and Brazil. If the rest of the world had jacked up tariffs too, like it did in the early 1930's when the USA imposed the Smoot Hawley tariffs, the result could have been far different. See post #50 in this thread for more info.

The longer term effects of the tariffs, including what will happen after Trump's left office if they're not rescinded, are the most concerning to me. They're going to make U.S. companies less competitive in world markets and result in inefficient allocation of labor and capital. We won't reap benefits from our comparative advantages to the same extent we did before. Those are the main reasons I don't like the tariffs.

Like other forms of taxation, the tariffs will have a negative effect on employment, GDP growth and prices. But unfortunately we must feed the beast that the uniparty created. Tariffs are not the best way to do that.