The Trump Economy

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by RX792P

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics...crease-revenue

The quote from the article appears to say in one place that the deficit will be $2 trillion, and in another place it says it will be about $1.9 trillion, roughly the same as the year before, which I think was what Blackman said.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

....Unemployment is up. Prices are up. We’ve had no good indicators under Trump.

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Index, and NASDAQ Composite have all hit highs during Trump's second term. Adjusted for inflation they're also at all time highs.

Peak real (inflation adjusted) hourly compensation for all workers was hit during Trump's first term, and is currently up from the level when Biden left office. People will get to keep more of that compensation than they would otherwise because the 2017 tax cuts were extended.

Real GDP per capita will probably hit an all time high in 2025.

YoY CPI Inflation is 2.9%. The post World War II average is 3.7%.

The unemployment rate is 4.3%. The post World War II average is 5.7%.

If you decide to reply, you might want to look back at post #13. It should give you some good ideas.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by CPT Savajo

Tiny it's going to be an uphill fight because it's not only China, it's the BRICS nations who are aligned economically and militarily against the West/NATO. The way shit is shaping up in the Western World it almost seems like the West is being set up for collapse. Look at the Marxist/Communist ideology they're teaching kids in school like Critical Race Theory, Transgendered story reading hour, and LGBT propaganda. Complete bullshit! Confidence in the dollar is waning on a global scale whereas gold is smashing record after record on a near daily basis and you hear no word of it in the local or national news as if it's some secret so the Central Banks/nations/people in the know can continue to buy it up hand over fist as the system burns to the ground. The dollar is dying, gold is going straight up and the dollar is going to hell in a handbasket which could be said of all currencies around the globe. Trump has already signaled that he's going with stablecoins instead of returning the nation to a constitutional money system, possibly laying the groundwork for a CBDC in the future as many have speculated. The business strike penny will be phased out in 2027 and the nickel will follow next. They can't do both at the same time because that might alert the populace that something is going on. I don't think there is a clear path to save the US economy at this point, people better save themselves and if they don't they should not count on a life raft to be there for them if a time of need.

Hi Captain, I think deficits, the national debt, inflation fears, expectations of rate cuts by the Fed (which make gold more attractive since it doesn't produce an income stream), and movement of foreign countries' reserves out of the dollar and into other currencies and gold are driving the price of gold and weakness in the dollar.

Another poster here recommended "Our Dollar, Your Problem," by Kenneth Rogoff, which addresses a good but of this. I'm about a third of the way through the book. I don't believe Rogoff is expecting a sudden collapse of the U.S. economy or the reserve status of the dollar. But yeah, we need to get the deficits under control, so that federal debt held by the public as a % of GDP shrinks. Otherwise the future doesn't look so bright. Neither party is doing much about this. The Freedom Caucus, Rand Paul and Mark Warner recognize the problem and want to fix it, but the rest of Congress and President Trump mostly want to continue spending like drunken sailors and not paying for it. So I agree, there's not a clear path out of this mess, given our political class is more interested in the next election than solving the problem.

[RX792P]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The quote from the article appears to say in one place that the deficit will be $2 trillion, and in another place it says it will be about $1.9 trillion, roughly the same as the year before, which I think was what Blackman said.

The federal government's budget deficit reached $2 trillion for the current fiscal year as the deficit has widened by nearly $100 billion from last year.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its monthly budget update for August, which showed the deficit reached $1.989 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025. That amounts to a $92 billion increase in the deficit when compared with the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by RX792P

The federal government's budget deficit reached $2 trillion for the current fiscal year as the deficit has widened by nearly $100 billion from last year.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its monthly budget update for August, which showed the deficit reached $1.989 trillion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2025. That amounts to a $92 billion increase in the deficit when compared with the first 11 months of fiscal year 2024.

Yes, your prior quote also says, "Taking that budgetary move into account with the rest of its analysis, the CBO is currently estimating that the final budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 will total $1.9 trillion." I don't really understand your earlier quote from Fox. That's Fox's fault, not yours.

Looking back I think that Blackman and Reuters were referring just to the first 11 months of the 2024/2025 fiscal year, through the end of August.

Like I wrote earlier, there weren't any significant changes in tax collection from the Biden Budget (really the Biden and Republican House & Senate's budget) until mid April of 2025, when tariffs really kicked in. And Trump's tariffs if they stand in their current form (and I hope they don't) would raise about an estimated $360 billion a year. There was a lot of inventory stocking earlier on, to avoid the tariffs, so that tariff revenues would be lower in months past than they are now.

If the increase in the deficit were $92 billion, to $2 trillion in FY2025, I suspect that the deficit would stay about the same as a % of GDP, or decrease slightly.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Hey Salty, We were lucky that the only countries that responded in kind to the tariffs were China and Brazil. If the rest of the world had jacked up tariffs too, like it did in the early 1930's when the USA imposed the Smoot Hawley tariffs, the result could have been far different. See post #50 in this thread for more info.

... Blimey! ... It surely sounds like "just plain LUCK"
that the Stock Market DIDN'T Collapse and that the
tariffs DIDN'T tank the economy. ...

... Or maybe it was simply by the grace of God - not sure
- I'll have to ask President Trump...

... Hey, it's okay that some o' you were WRONG to this point.
You can feel free to admit it... And we'll continue to
see how everything goes! ...

##### Salty

[RX792P]

Trump has revealed why the economy is so bad.

“What’s illegal are the drugs that were on the boat, and the drugs that are being sent into our country, and the fact that 300 million people died last year from drugs, that’s what’s illegal,” Trump said.

The reason this affected the economy is that 88.2% of the US population died last year, leaving only about 40 million alive in the US.


OTOH, Trump may have his 'facts' wrong....again

The CDC estimates that about 75,000 people died from drug overdoses over the past year. That’s a decline from recent years past; More than 110,000 died in 2023, but the number has never approached the totals Trump claimed.

Globally, some 600,000 people die each year from drug use, according to the World Health Organization, or 0.2% of the number Trump claimed.

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Index, and NASDAQ Composite have all hit highs during Trump's second term. Adjusted for inflation they're also at all time highs.

Peak real (inflation adjusted) hourly compensation for all workers was hit during Trump's first term, and is currently up from the level when Biden left office. People will get to keep more of that compensation than they would otherwise because the 2017 tax cuts were extended.

Real GDP per capita will probably hit an all time high in 2025.

YoY CPI Inflation is 2.9%. The post World War II average is 3.7%.

The unemployment rate is 4.3%. The post World War II average is 5.7%.

If you decide to reply, you might want to look back at post #13. It should give you some good ideas.

I’ll start with my long sigh.

You know we’re talking about this Trump term so your reflection back is just an attempt to mileage. You know better.

The stock market isn’t a reflection of the economy. We all know that. Who cares what inflation was 80 years ago. We’re talking about now. Inflation today is up from inflation a year ago. That is all that matters. Real GDP doesn’t reflect what the average person is paying for goods and how they are living. Again, you know better. Unemployment is up from last year and increasing. Again, I don’t care about the 1950s.

You attempt to skew number in favor of Trump is laughable at best. Real wages might be up for some, mainly due to blue stats raising their minimum wage. Otherwise more people are unemployed so maybe we should factor in those zero wages into the average and see what the number looks like.

Do better next time buddy.

[RX792P]

The Trump economy

The number of small business bankruptcies filed by farmers has reached a five-year high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg in July.

https://news.yahoo.com/articles/us-f...233651637.html

[1blackman1]

Must be because they are doing so well.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

I’ll start with my long sigh.

You know we’re talking about this Trump term so your reflection back is just an attempt to mileage. You know better.

The stock market isn’t a reflection of the economy. We all know that. Who cares what inflation was 80 years ago. We’re talking about now. Inflation today is up from inflation a year ago. That is all that matters. Real GDP doesn’t reflect what the average person is paying for goods and how they are living. Again, you know better. Unemployment is up from last year and increasing. Again, I don’t care about the 1950s.

You attempt to skew number in favor of Trump is laughable at best. Real wages might be up for some, mainly due to blue stats raising their minimum wage. Otherwise more people are unemployed so maybe we should factor in those zero wages into the average and see what the number looks like.

Do better next time buddy.

Way to go Blackman! You must have actually reviewed post #13. Yes, increases in minimum wages during various presidential administrations would have marginally increased real income. Around 1% to 10% of the population, depending on location, is paid the minimum wage. And you do have some knock on effect as low wage workers paid more than the minimum see their paychecks go up when there's an increase. I believe minimum wage increases make sense as long as they don't significantly effect employment. In any event, given the low % of the population affected, and given the changes don't affect the entire country, the effect on median and average national wages is small. Still, if you're making, say, $8.00 an hour and that goes to $11 or $12, the effect is huge.

Inflation was 2.9% last December when Biden was in office, and 3% in January. Last month, in August, it was 2.9%. There's been no change since Biden left office.

The unemployment rate for quarters ended 9/30/24 and 12/31/2024 were 4.17% and 4.13% respectively. The most recent data for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 shows unemployment at 4.17%. So, essentially, there's been no change.

As to real wages and income, the graphs speak for themselves. During Trump's first term there were substantial increases,

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/COMPRNFB

Now, will Trump's tariffs have a negative effect on employment, inflation and GDP? Yes. Will his immigration policy have a negative effect on employment levels and GDP? Yes. There are still a whole lot of other factors besides Trump affecting the economy though. You would have been better off highlighting Trump's policies instead of the Trump economy, because the data right now just doesn't support what you're trying to show.

[RX792P]

The unemployment rate for quarters ended 9/30/24 and 12/31/2024 were 4.17% and 4.13% respectively. The most recent data for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 shows unemployment at 4.17%. So, essentially, there's been no change.

Incorrect.
The official U.S. unemployment rate for August 2025 was 4.3%.

[RX792P]

The unemployment rate for quarters ended 9/30/24 and 12/31/2024 were 4.17% and 4.13% respectively. The most recent data for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 shows unemployment at 4.17%. So, essentially, there's been no change.

Incorrect.
The official U.S. unemployment rate for August 2025 was 4.3%.

[RX792P]

dang duplicate

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The unemployment rate is 4.3%. The post World War II average is 5.7%.

Originally Posted by Tiny

The unemployment rate for quarters ended 9/30/24 and 12/31/2024 were 4.17% and 4.13% respectively. The most recent data for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 shows unemployment at 4.17%. So, essentially, there's been no change...Now, will Trump's tariffs have a negative effect on employment, inflation and GDP? Yes. Will his immigration policy have a negative effect on employment levels and GDP? Yes. There are still a whole lot of other factors besides Trump affecting the economy though. You would have been better off highlighting Trump's policies instead of the Trump economy, because the data right now just doesn't support what you're trying to show.

Originally Posted by RX792P

Incorrect.
The official U.S. unemployment rate for August 2025 was 4.3%.

I clicked into a monthly data series for the first reply to Blackman and a quarterly series for the second. I didn't do that on purpose, they're just the first I came across when I wrote each post.

If you're trying to make the case that the economy's gone to shit because the unemployment rate in August was 4.3% compared to 4.17% in the second quarter, have at it. It's that kind of analysis that the electorate rejected in 2024, when it elected Trump president and gave the Senate and House to Republicans. The inflation during Biden's term had nothing to do with too much stimulus spending by Democrats, and the workingman was better off in 2024 than he was before COVID. Yeah, right.