The Trump Economy

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by RX792P

latest update from the link.

Thanks for noticing this adjustment, one day later.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

It’s a prediction Salty.

... No, it's a good estimate... I'm fairly certain...

#### Salty

[RX792P]

Must admit I'm happy to be on the upward facing leg of the K shaped economy. Not so happy about my acquaintances who are on the downward facing leg.

[RX792P]

Trump calls for limiting credit card interest rates to 10% for one year.

“Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies,”

Oddly, his efforts to get rid of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau seems to project just the opposite opinion of letting the American Public be 'ripped off'....

Dick Morris on Newsmax

Capping credit card interest rates would have a huge impact on housing purchases, decrease the homeless population, and make things more affordable overall, Morris said.

Wouldn't not incurring large credit card debts do even more?

"It would also drive a lot of money into the economy, too," he added.

So instead of paying off credit card debt, people would just spend more (increasing their credit card debt)?

Maybe it's not such a bad idea...if Trump's edict includes a requirement that all money saved on credit card interest must first be used to pay down credit card debt.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Actually, Q4 is over so it's an estimate, not a prediction.

That said, whaddaya think Yssup?

The headline calls the Atlanta Fed's estimate "sizzling". Strong growth, coupled with a dramatic shrinkage in the trade deficit!

See anything you like?

Let's look at some other economic statistics.

Unemployment rate at 4.4%, up from 4.0% when Trump took office.

"Payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025, down from an increase of 2 million in 2024."

"2025 was the worst year for hiring since 2020, December jobs report shows"

CPI at 2.7% despite Trump's continuing claims that there is no inflation.

It is estimated Trump's tariffs (tax) will cost households $2000 a year. All that money Trump claims the U.S. is raking in from other countries is actually paid for by you and me.

"This leads to a simple, if uncomfortable, conclusion. The United States as a nation is better positioned economically than it was a year prior. But the average American — the human being behind the number — is not meaningfully better off. Most households still live with the feeling that they are standing in a hole, and while the digging has finally halted, the ladder remains frustratingly out of reach."

https://wesdunser.substack.com/p/are...ff-than-a-year

"America’s economy is still growing: output expanded strongly in the third quarter, driven by consumer and government spending. Yet other indicators point to mounting strain. Inflation, which had been drifting towards the Federal Reserve’s target, is moving higher again as firms pass tariff costs on to consumers. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has fallen sharply and the labour market is cooling."

https://www.economist.com/interactiv...racker/economy

Trump promised food prices would come down. They have not. My electric rates are up. The cost of natural gas is up. As a retiree my income is fixed other than the COLA for my Social Security. Trump promised no taxes on SSI and failed to deliver. 2025 was not good economically for most Americans. The rise in GDP does not put money in my pocket.

[RX792P]

Any contradictions here?
Aug 12, 2025, Trump
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...16246479417087

Trillions of Dollars are being taken in on Tariffs, which has been incredible for our Country, its Stock Market, its General Wealth, and just about everything else.

Jan 9, 2025, Bessent
The U.S. Treasury has more than adequate funds to pay any tariff refunds ordered if the Supreme Court rules against President Donald Trump's emergency tariffs, but any repayments would be spread out over weeks or even a year, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Friday.
"It won't ​be a problem if we have to do it, but I can tell you that if it happens -- which I don't think it's going to -- it's just a corporate boondoggle,"

With cash on hand of nearly $774 billion as of Thursday, the Treasury has more than enough funds to cover any refunds.
That's not "trillions"


https://www.newsmax.com/us/scott-bes...09/id/1241554/

[RX792P]

Prepare for 'muddy' inflation data.

December inflation data will be 'extremely muddy' economists warn
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...conomists-warn

"This is going to be an extremely muddy report because of the lingering questions around the October and November CPI report," EY-Parthenon chief economist Greg Daco told FOX Business in an interview. "Most of the data was affected by the government shutdown."

[Mort Watt]

Originally Posted by RX792P

Trump calls for limiting credit card interest rates to 10% for one year....

It's just more populist bullshit. Does anyone think Jamie Dimon and his rich crony buddies are going to let this happen? No fucking way.

And it's a bad idea. The banks would severely restrict credit if it went down. This would push more "less qualified" consumers into products that are more loosely regulated, like Payday Lenders and the like. A recipe for disaster.

.

[elghund]

Originally Posted by Mort Watt

It's just more populist bullshit. Does anyone think Jamie Dimon and his rich crony buddies are going to let this happen? No fucking way.

And it's a bad idea. The banks would severely restrict credit if it went down. This would push more "less qualified" consumers into products that are more loosely regulated, like Payday Lenders and the like. A recipe for disaster.

.

Why should this be different than any thing else Trump does? Everything he touches turns into a cluster fuck…..

elg…

[RX792P]

Originally Posted by Mort Watt

It's just more populist bullshit. Does anyone think Jamie Dimon and his rich crony buddies are going to let this happen? No fucking way.

And it's a bad idea. The banks would severely restrict credit if it went down. This would push more "less qualified" consumers into products that are more loosely regulated, like Payday Lenders and the like. A recipe for disaster.

I will mention that this type of interest rate limitation has been previously espoused by some on the 'left' side (something I'm sure Trump will not mention).
Worthwhile noting that credit card issuers write off an estimated $40B/year.

While I think some credit card rates are rather usurious, they pale in comparison to the 'payday loan' type practices.
With an estimated 12 million users and some 20 million loans annually perhaps those payday loan lenders are a better starting target for the administration.

[RX792P]

Bureau of Labor Statistics (despite staff changes) said on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in December and held steady at 2.7% on a year-over-year basis.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.2% from the prior month and 2.6% from a year ago. Those figures were slightly below economists' expectations of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively.

Energy prices rose 0.3% in December and are 2.3% higher than a year ago. Gas prices were down 0.4% on a monthly basis and have decreased 3.4% since this time last year. Electricity costs declined 0.1% in December but have risen 6.7% in the past year.


https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...-december-2025

Note: Economists have cautioned that, because of the disruption caused by the government shutdown, the process used by the BLS to carry-forward data through the lapse in data collection could impart a downward bias on the CPI inflation data through April this year.

[RX792P]

Good news...rental rates are dropping, as they have for 28 months.

Breitbart headline
Trump Wins ‘Affordability’: Rents Drop for Americans Because of ICE Deportations
Trump Wins ‘Affordability’: Rents Drop for Americans Because of ICE Deportations
37
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JANUARY 11 U.S. Border Patrol agents arrest an individual they were chasJoshua Lott/The Washington Post via Getty Images
Neil Munro12 Jan 20261,851
3:49

ICE’s deportation agents are driving down rents for Americans by sending more illegal migrants back to their home countries, according to data posted by the White House’s “Rapid Response 47” social media account.

https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status...24584736293341
Odd...the RapidRespone47 post doesn't mention rents...but only housing pricing.

FACT: In 14 of the top 20 metro areas with the largest illegal migrant populations, home list prices DECLINED year-over-year in December.

RapidReponse47 does not state a source for their data.

Caveat: Realtor.com says

Across the 50 largest U.S. metros, the median asking rent fell to $1,693 in November, down 1% from a year earlier. That marked the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year rent declines nationwide.

Not gonna go over all those metro areas, but #1 on the RR47 list, Austin has seen home list price declines since the 2022 peak

[RX792P]

With this kind of brainpower, it's not surprising we're having difficulty with the economy. (and Trump's 1500% medication price cuts)

Montana Republican Rep. Ryan Zink
"When interest rates go down one or two points it could be half your mortgage,"
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/r...13/id/1241940/

The real math
How a 2% Drop Impacts Your Payment (Example)
Let's look at a sample $300,000 loan on a 30-year fixed mortgage:
At 7% interest: Principal & Interest (P&I) ≈ $1,996/month.
At 5% interest (a 2% drop): P&I ≈ $1,610/month.
Monthly Savings: ~$386.


That's a 19% drop...NOT 'half your mortgage'...

(maybe he's talking about total cost of mortgage...if you stayed in the house the full 30 years of the mortgage...but that ain't the way he's trying to get it across)


"Permitting is about 40% in some cases,"
REALLY????

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by RX792P

Bureau of Labor Statistics (despite staff changes) said on Tuesday that the consumer price index (CPI) – a broad measure of how much everyday goods like gasoline, groceries and rent cost – rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in December and held steady at 2.7% on a year-over-year basis.

So-called core prices, which exclude volatile measurements of gasoline and food to better assess price growth trends, were up 0.2% from the prior month and 2.6% from a year ago. Those figures were slightly below economists' expectations of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively.

Energy prices rose 0.3% in December and are 2.3% higher than a year ago. Gas prices were down 0.4% on a monthly basis and have decreased 3.4% since this time last year. Electricity costs declined 0.1% in December but have risen 6.7% in the past year.


https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...-december-2025

Note: Economists have cautioned that, because of the disruption caused by the government shutdown, the process used by the BLS to carry-forward data through the lapse in data collection could impart a downward bias on the CPI inflation data through April this year.

What did the lying fat orange slug say? "Prices would fall day one."? It's been a year and how many days?

Where are you NaCl-y....We're WAIIITTTTTIIIIINNNNNNNNGGGGGGG GG!

[RX792P]

Trump in Detroit earlier this week
"Inflation is stopped."
"Inflation is defeated."

The data:
When Donald Trump took office in January 2025, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate was 3.0%, a figure reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (.gov) and other financial news outlets. This marked a slight increase from the December 2024 rate of 2.9%



The consumer price index rose 2.7% in December 2025 from 12 months earlier, unchanged from November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Actually the same as when Trump was elected in November 2024.


Yes, 2.7% is less than 3.0%...but I think most would opine that is hardly 'defeated' or 'stopped'