Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiny
Duh. There are a lot fewer blacks in America than whites. Taking your faulty reasoning to an extreme, if you had 100,000 blacks in America and 200 million whites, then the odds of a black person being killed by a white person would be off the charts high compared to the reverse.
From your numbers you apparently don't understand "Whites" in the FBI table include most Hispanics. The 197 million number you used is the population of non-Hispanic whites. But that's neither here nor there.
If you define "white" as including Hispanic whites, then the there are 1.1 blacks per million whites killed annually by whites:
246/228,000,000 x 1,000,000 = 1.1
And there are 13.8 whites per million blacks killed annually by blacks:
566/41,000,000 x 1,000,000 = 13.8
So it looks like blacks kill whites at a rate 13X higher adjusted for relative populations.
And yeah, you're right, this is inconsequential, 566 white deaths per year, relative to the lost years suffered by blacks as a result of poor healthcare outcomes and incarceration.
I'm out of here. I'm burning too much time in this thread and I haven't got any converts. I had my hopes up with you Turner, but I'm throwing in the towel.
FBI statistics from 2019 we both were using:
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...ta-table-6.xls |
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Turner2099
-However, on a per capita basis, Black Americans faced roughly twice the risk of being killed by a white offender compared to the reverse, largely because the Black population is about 1/5 the size of the white population.
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You're right about there being more white people than black people and I pointed that out in my post.
It's not faulty reasoning--odds are odds and I used real figures.
You're right about the white overall population size. I did not realize the 197 million only captured non-Hispanic whites. This is exactly why I asked you what question you asked ChatGPT when it gave you an answer that led you to see no need to discuss systemic racism. It didn't even occur to me that Claude wouldn't use apples-to-apples in it's calculations, so I wasn't specific enough in my question.
Yes, the result is neither here nor there. If the odds are recalculated using the correct numbers, it's basically a rounding issue---there's no change to the percentage.
White killed by Black offender: 566
Population at Risk: ~228 million
Odds of being killed by a black person: 1 in 403,000 or 0.0003%
You make a great point by showing that blacks kill whites by a rate 13x greater than whites kill blacks. It sounds like a crazy number, but as you know, it is an exaggerated threat if you don't include the underlying numbers.
That was my point.
Using 2019 numbers, the chance of a white person being killed by a black person is 0.0003%.
When you say 566 white deaths per year is inconsequential relative to the lost years suffered by blacks as a result of poor healthcare outcomes and incarceration, you're making an understatement.
Poor healthcare outcomes and high incarceration rates aren't just in the past---these are ongoing issues. These are outcomes of systemic racism. This is where I am trying to gain converts---systemic racism must be discussed.
