AI: 78% Probability Trump's About To Be A Hero

[Turner2099]

Originally Posted by 69in2it69

Using the paid version of an AI model vs the free is like a flip phone vs the latest iphone. And not just what you ask, but context, the persona you give it, and format. Here's a summary of what one of mine returned:

TimeframeRegime Still in Power

Key Variable
30 days~70–75%IRGC cohesion holds; new leader's health/visibility
60 days~55–60%War trajectory; domestic repression vs. fracture
90 days~45–55%Opposition unity; US military objectives; elite defections


I checked another and got

Time HorizonEstimated probability of collapse30 days~3–10%3 months~5–15%6–12 monthspotentially higher (20–40%) if crises continue

These are not precise forecasts but reflect typical political-risk modeling.


I used the exact same prompt on both.

I was seeing similar numbers to yours until I loaded the results from the OP as part of my prompt and asked Gemini to double-check all the data. I didn't load the introductory paragraph or the conclusion.

Final Conclusion

The probability that the remaining Iranian high-level leadership will flee the country within the next 30 days is 75%. The regime has transitioned from a defensive posture to a liquidation and exfiltration phase, with Moscow serving as the primary guarantor of their personal safety.

Claude gave me:

The honest bottom line: The Iranian leadership is almost certainly preparing for flight as a contingency. Whether they actually execute that option in the next 30 days depends on one or two decisive variables — most likely whether a ceasefire negotiation gains traction, or whether the military situation deteriorates to the point where staying becomes existentially untenable.

Probability of leadership departure within 30 days: ~58% — for the first time in this analysis, departure is now the more likely outcome than not.

Then I added the data that was produced by OPs second post from Gemini and Claude upped the probability.

Probability of leadership departure within 30 days: ~75%

This is all due to the granularity of data OP's prompts produced. I was unable to pull that level of detail.

[Tiny]

Here's the genesis of the questions posed to Gemini. A friend/colleague of mine in Singapore wants to have a "thesis" before he buys or sells anything. Let's call him Fred. Around the first of this week, Fred's thesis was the conflict in Iran will go on for a long time. Oil will shoot up over $150 a barrel, and we may be in for something like the 2008/2009 financial crisis and 2020 COVID crisis combined. So he decided to sell/sell/sell. Like other great speculators (George Soros comes to mind) Fred has no problem turning on a dime and constantly revisits his theses.

Now Fred in the first part of his career used to interview people for a living. And he still does a lot of that. He's very good at it. So he started interviewing Gemini, the free version. They discussed all the money the current Ayatollah had socked away in London real estate, Swiss banks, etc. Then they got on Russia. Gemini came up with a story almost as fantastical as my post #10 above. (Post #10 is another copy and paste from a later chat between Fred and Gemini.)

So I take Gemini's story, which Fred emailed me, and plug it into deep research, thinking mode, in Gemini. And asked her if it was bull shit. I also asked her for her estimate of the probability of regime change, or that regime leaders would flee Iran, in the next 30 days. She came back with post #2 above. I was very impressed with the depth of her research and her reasoning until the end, when she came up with the 78% probability. I also was skeptical about whether the primary reason for the presence of the Russian air assets was to help the regime escape.

I did the same thing with ChatGPT. ChatGPT said a good part of Gemini's narrative was unsubstantiated and came back with 5%. It would have been interesting to give ChatGPT some of Gemini's sources and see if it would up the probability, like Claude did for Turner. I suspect it would.

Which did a better job? Well, Gemini used around 35 distinct sources and watched a video that it referenced in its answer, and read more. ChatGPT only quoted Reuters, the Guardian and a web site in Barcelona. I think Gemini did a better job of research. And ChatGPT perhaps a better job of thinking, although I believe the 5% is too low. (The 78% is probably too high.)

Both will take a look at foreign language web sites if you ask them to, by the way. And Gemini handles that better than ChatGPT IMO.

I believe the free version of Gemini, or Gemini in fast mode, and probably ChatGPT too, will take you on flights of fancy if either thinks that's what you're after. If Fred had kept up his line of questioning longer, maybe Gemini would have convinced him to commit suicide so he could bond with her forever in the hereafter, on a higher level of consciousness than he occupies now. Like Jonathan Gavalas, whose family is suing Google after Jonathan did exactly that.

Anyway, if they were rational, the Iranian leaders would follow the Gemini playbook, and sock all their assets away in crypto that they haven't already. And hightail it to Russia. However some are not rational. They believe the day of Judgement is near. The Mahdi, who has been living among us for over 1000 years, will shortly return to inflict the wrath of the Almighty upon the corrupt and the tyrants and the unbelievers (i.e. Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Jews and the Great Satan), and establish a true and just Islamic government throughout the world. And this subset of the Iranian leadership is not rational. Aside: Many Shias believe Jesus will return at the same time and support the Mahdi. The Church of Tiny has no position on any of this.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Turner2099

Yeah---how you phrase the question makes a ton of difference. I got burned in another post because I didn't specify a dataset properly.

This is one of the better questions to ask:

Please look at betting sites and tell me current or close-to-current implied probabilities for regime change or regime leaders fleeing Iran for different time periods.


According to ChatGPT, the bettors on Polymarket are assigning probabilities of 14%, 26%, and 35% for regime change by the end of April, June and December respectively. Manifold is at 16% and 33% by the end of March and June.

My seat of the pants instinct would be to go long regime change on Polymarket.

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by Tiny

This is probably the best question to ask:

Please look at betting sites and tell me current or close-to-current implied probabilities for regime change or regime leaders fleeing Iran for different time periods.


According to ChatGPT, the bettors on Polymarket are assigning probabilities of 14%, 26%, and 35% for regime change by the end of April, June and December respectively. Manifold is at 16% and 33% by the end of March and June.

My seat of the pants instinct would be to go long regime change on Polymarket.

I commend your efforts to make rational, non-biased prompts and predictions. Did you add into them the probability of non-funding/support to exceed 60 days? With CiC publicly stating things like "it'll be over when I feel it in my bones" for strategy I don't seem him getting 1B/day for aerial only "excursions", and that's his limit. And if he puts boots on the ground he'll go down in history as a failed leader. For those about to bring up the extended 30 days, that's specifically for withdrawals, not offensive actions.

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Anyway, if they were rational, the Iranian leaders would follow the Gemini playbook, and sock all their assets away in crypto that they haven't already. And hightail it to Russia. However some are not rational. They believe the day of Judgement is near. The Mahdi, who has been living among us for over 1000 years, will shortly return to inflict the wrath of the Almighty upon the corrupt and the tyrants and the unbelievers (i.e. Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, Jews and the Great Satan), and establish a true and just Islamic government throughout the world. And this subset of the Iranian leadership is not rational. Aside: Many Shias believe Jesus will return at the same time and support the Mahdi. The Church of Tiny has no position on any of this.

This is the crux of the issue. How rational is the current Iranian regime? Unfortunately rationality is not a strong suit when discussing religious beliefs.