Iran's New Conditions to End the War..

[1blackman1]

It was Friday bluster. Trump just didn’t want the market to keep crashing out. We shall see what it looks like on Monday.

[offshoredrilling]

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

I'm a native born English speaker that prefers simple English, as per above.

Beats heck outta me how they and/or you, think Iran sets the terms of their surrender.

And how do you account for the umpteen million other tweets and such from the supposed wharton graduate that rank on the level of a toddler pounding the keyboard? You need not answer that.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

You can’t convince MAGA or Smart MAGA with facts. They rely on Trump and opinion pieces from right wing outlets to know what to say and believe.

And that reliance is what dooms any chance of anything happening with Iran *if* that is the metric to follow.

Originally Posted by offshoredrilling

I know. It is sad.

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Iran would not be anywhere near having enriched Uranium at 60% (U-235) if the Real Estate Developer turned President Trump had not canceled the JPCOA back in 2018.

True. You will not find a single maggie that will believe that was the most cost effective and demonstrated 100% effective keeping an eye on their development in that field.

You will also not find a single maggie here that will not say the cost expenditure produced the same objectives as Obama in curtailing an actual nuclear device.

And you will not find one maggie here that is a fiscal conservative and state that more could have been achieved with what has been spent on this boondoggle than could have been shown to have benefitted citizens here by investing a fraction into social programs.

Originally Posted by SecretE

It's beyond obvious there was never a serious plan to put boots on the ground. The internal revolution the attack was supposed to foment never happened. Now, the US is trying to financially strangle Iran into an agreement. All the Democrats have to do now is sit back and let this boondoggle drag the GOP out of power in Congress, when the mid-terms hit.

The attack that was not given a heads up by anyone outside of the maralogo pancake table was doomed to fail if it truly was to give the green light to the common people of Iran. There was a good long term plan in cutting off the regime there from the outside world. donny could have contributed to this and seriously give good aid to it that would have shown with the last two outburst from the Iranian people. Instead, he wanted to play a tinhorn dictator himself and appoint himself a Napoleon and went balls out to his Moscow in the Winter. The mullahs have been playing him ever since.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

The war is over. Trump and Heggy may claim we’ll start back bombing but in reality, it won’t happen. We’re gonna just call it done and move on. Just need the strait reopened, a few unenforceable promises from Iran to Never Ever seek a nuke and it’s all water under the bridge.

I guess they can be trusted to not cheat now or to not fund their terrorist proxies any longer.

Oh, and we’re freeing up another 20 Billion to give them.

Funny. Why they still bombing there if an agreement is in place?

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... See? ... The Strait is OPEN. ... Success for America!
Iran rolled over. ... Good thing to have a cease-fire and
framework for a good agreement. ... Safer for the whole world. ..

#### Salty

Last time I looked, wasn't safe navigation. Guess your view of ships being fired upon is the definition of open....as in OPEN Fire.

Originally Posted by pxmcc

^^the sad truth is you can't take anything Trump says at face value..

the way it looks to me is the party desperate to end the war is actually Trump, not Iran. when JD comes back empty handed from his 2nd trip to Pakistan, the only person/party who will look silly will be DJT. why else has Iran said nothing when Trump brags that Iran now agrees to all the U.S 's terms? it's obvious that statement is patently false..

but credit is due to Trump for getting Iran to even claim the Strait is open, even if it's still not safe for oil tankers to transit freely. (if it was, they'd already be doing it..)

And that is the problem. He has zero trust built up in his bank. Mr Art of the Deal has shown how miserably of a failure he is in Foreign Policy here. Since his M.O. is to do kneejerk actions that probably are designed to line his pocket book, his actions are on the piss poor side of seeing actual results to what he states. So, he has to flip flop so much in the desperate attempt to actually latch onto something that might backasswardly appear to support one of his many throw-it-on-the-wall-and-hopefully-something-sticks approaches.

You will never find a maggie that will state that doing the legwork, having planned negotiations over a period of time can benefit in getting results.

Just like Obama did and acheived with deal that kept an eye on the nuclear program Iran has.

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Oh, is it really?!?
Of course, I wouldn't trust the Iran regime if they said I could have their 72 virgins either...

Just like Americans and the rest of the world don't trust what donny sez.

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

The strait is closed again

What else is new?

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

trump is not a fool. I think he knows exactly whats hes doing.

it is obvious that he does not trust Iran. they've already broken promises.

this regime is crippled as far as command & control is concerned. its currently under mosaic command.

That opinion and $5 might get you a decent cup of joe.

It is obvious no one trust the maggie in chief. And all the lies that have stuck to him like shitballs to his bloated butt.

[pxmcc]

so today the U.S. Navy fired on an Iranian commercial ship trying to run the blockade. A destroyer fired 4 artillery shots at the engine, disabling the Iranian ship, after a warning was given. Iran states that they will respond to this "breach of the cease fire," as they put it.

the cease fire ends on Wednesday. the U.S. is sending Vance and co. to Pakistan for negotiations on Tuesday. Iran has not confirmed it will participate.

Trump says that Iran better be ready to negotiate the end of the war, or he's going to blow up everything. does Iran respond to threats in the way that Trump expects? i think not.

both sides have quite a bit of leverage. Iran is not allowing any tankers through the Strait, and the U.S. Navy is not letting any Iranian-connected ships to pass into the Gulf of Oman.

has Trump overplayed his hand? i would argue that when Iran opened the Strait, the U.S. should have eased up on the blockade. not sure what the point was of maintaining the blockade when Iran took the first step toward ending this conflict.

reminds me of 2 wrestlers having simultaneous painful holds on their opponent. neither side seems ready to cry uncle.

so can Vance & co. close the substantial gaps between the 2 sides? Trump states that Iran has agreed to all the U.S.'s terms, which doesn't sound credible at all, given the facts on the ground and Trump's difficulty with being truthful.

the U.S. will need to make some concessions if they really want to end this mess. Iran doesn't have to beat the U.S.; just staying in the fight is itself a victory in this highly asymmetrical conflict. without any concessions from the U.S., i don't see Iran backing down.

Trump wants this resolved before the midterms; Iran has no such deadline. factually, Trump is more desperate to get this war wrapped up than is Iran. but Trump is playing his hand like he has a royal flush. in reality, he has more like a pair of 9s.

so everyone wants to know how all this will shake out. people are tired of high gas prices and the inflation that it is causing across the economy. this isn't what Trump promised his voters.

"No more forever wars. Start bringing inflation down on day 1." that was Trump's campaign spiel. but tariffs and now this war are exactly the opposite of Trump's promises. and he's finding Iran to be a much tougher opponent than he expected, and far less willing to accept the U.S.'s terms than he predicted at the outset. he has created his own mess, and no one is coming to bail him out, unfortunately..

[pxmcc]

Trump should offer Iran a preliminary deal: end of the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman in exchange for Iran ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. that's the surest way to get negotiations back on track and to allow oil and LNG tankers to get through the Strait. the status quo risks a global economic recession, which will be totally on Trump and no one else.

[offshoredrilling]

Originally Posted by pxmcc

Trump should offer Iran a preliminary deal: end of the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman in exchange for Iran ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. that's the surest way to get negotiations back on track and to allow oil and LNG tankers to get through the Strait. the status quo risks a global economic recession, which will be totally on Trump and no one else.

bombs away

[VitaMan]

Iran is following Trump and his threats. They say they will blow up oil production capacity in other
oil producing areas in the Persian Gulf.....unless Trump gives in to their demands.


Now we have 2 extortion and protection rackets.

[Precious_b]

I bet y'ah that donny is *STEAMED* that a little no-shit country (likened to how he is as a person) is getting all the publicity while he is getting all the heat for his actions.

That's showing them.

Iran. Still punching above their weight class.

[pxmcc]

the U.S. doesn't have enough destroyers and cruisers to both keep the blockade in the Gulf of Oman on Iranian-linked tankers and container ships active and also to escort non-Iranian tankers through the Strait. right now it has chosen the blockade option, which means there's no relief in sight to high oil prices and shortfalls in Asia and Europe.

a smarter move would be to negotiate with Iran to open the Strait in exchange for the U.S. ending its blockade in the Gulf of Oman. this is the least bad option for the U.S., given present facts on the ground.

if this deal was in place, the U.S. Navy could redeploy its destroyers and cruisers to chaperone skittish tankers through the Strait to satisy hesitant insurance companies which would other demure on offering coverage options, and skeptical owners equally wary of Iranian gunboats.

this war is a total clusterfuck and Trump needs to start seriously considering the "least bad options". expecting that all of his maximalist demands will be met is a pipe dream at this point. truth be told, Trump needs to cut his losses and extricate himself from this quagmire he created asap.

going back to another round of war now is straight up pure insanity..

if Trump wants to do that, let him foot the bill. he's worth like 7 billion at least, right? 2 billion a day is just pocket change..

[1blackman1]

It’s been reported that several ships have made it through the blockade. Likely Iranian or carrying Iranian oil. Until the next carrier group arrives, Iran will keep running the blockade and make billions of dollars.

[pxmcc]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

It’s been reported that several ships have made it through the blockade. Likely Iranian or carrying Iranian oil. Until the next carrier group arrives, Iran will keep running the blockade and make billions of dollars.

dang. i think Iran must have taken out too many of our awacs. otherwise no chance of running the blockade gantlet..

it looks like we'll have 3 CSG and 2 amphibious ready groups pretty soon all locked in and loaded. and yet i do not see Iran surrendering anytime soon. they are much tougher than Trump assumed, with his excess of hubris..

in war as in gambling, the 2nd you're overconfident, you're screwed..

[1blackman1]

Open water is HUGE. The most recent boat we interdicted was over a 1000 miles out from Shore with Iranian oil. These are very large areas to try to blockade.

[pxmcc]

if Trump won't compromise on opening the Gulf of Oman in exchange for Iran opening the Strait, maybe it's time to target the fast attack gunboats that are enforcing the closure of the Strait. 3 carrier strike groups and 2 amphibious ready groups should have more than enough firepower to unblock the Strait, by force.

#gunboatdiplomacy..

[pxmcc]

uh oh. things might get tricky. may want to wait for the Boxer-it's still in the Pacific-before we start anything exciting..

if we can't take the Strait with 3 carrier strike groups and 2 amphibious ready groups, then it can't be done, and we're screwed. full stop.

https://www.the-independent.com/news...-b2964375.html

and this is funny. Witcoff and Kushner get to negotiate with themselves lol. (maybe they can circle jerk with themselves too..):

"Iranian delegation departs Islamabad
Iran’s delegation, which includes FM Abbas Araghchi, has departed Islamabad after holding high-level meetings all day, Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javiad reports.

The delegation delivered its official list of demands for ending the US-Israeli war to Pakistani leaders before departing, he said."

who's calling the shots now..

bahahahahahahaha..

President Orange Clown..

Vance is like, "Thank God I didn't take that flight today"..

after all of Trump's fuckups and his horrible negotiating position, i think we should just welcome Iran into the club of nuclear nations if they agree to open the Strait without tolls or conditions..

let's not forget Trump is trying to solve a situation that he created, tearing up the JCPOA in 2018..

he's gonna make Barack look like the genius he is, and himself like the clown that he is..

@offshore: well, there is that. maybe it will take an A bomb to get the strait fully open..

actually, would there even be a strait afterwards?..

maybe send Iran a video produced by AI of what an A-bomb would look like, and see if they'll voluntarily open it before A-Day..

i'm totally down tho..

[offshoredrilling]

B-52's