Reply to VitaMan and Lusty Lad, in new thread to avoid going off topic, about deaths in Ukraine and the Ukrainian war in general

[VitaMan]

Putin was drafting 160,000 men not long ago. How many are left ?

[Jacky S]

What happened to those North Korean Soldiers that Kim sent to help Putin?

[1blackman1]

The Norrh Koreans died and or defected. Even Kim knows sending his men is just so they can die.

Putin’s draft is just mainly talk not qualified fighting me. Russia is essentially a third world country with nuked and oil (which it’s selling on the cheap).

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

LOL ... Although I don't think any DDBT members have much in the way of foreign policy expertise, there did seem to be agreement on a few points.

There may not be much chance of a settlement in the near future, since Putin has backed himself into a corner and doesn't have a smooth, face-saving exit ramp. He can't afford to be seen by a majority of Russians to have appeared to "lose" this war, however they may define losing. If looked at similarly to the way many other wars have been viewed, Russia has already lost, since it will never control the entirety of Ukraine. Therefore, Vladimir the Great will have to "define success down," essentially claiming that seizure and control of approximately 20% of Ukraine eliminates the "US-NATO threat"and ensures Russia's long-term security.

According to many reports, Russian TV and other "news" sources serve nothing more than such ridiculously biased propaganda that it would be hard for Americans, if they saw it, to believe that anyone in the world would buy a single word of the bullshit typically purveyed.

So any "victory" will probably look to outside observers like one of the most pyrrhic in history.

This is, of course, existential for Putin. Failure means the loss of control -- or indeed, his very life. The outcome for various Russian czars and dictators who have done poorly in wars over the last few centuries is rarely a happy one.

It's existential for any Ukrainian leader as well, since its citizens will have long memories of the unspeakable levels of cruelty visited upon civilians. And every Ukrainian has heard of the horrors of the Holodomor from parents and grandparents over the years. In my view, this accounts for the determination of Ukrainians to resist at all costs. Young Russian men, by contrast, want no part of any of this shit and get the hell out of there whenever they feel they can do so without being imprisoned in a hellhole or shot on the spot.

"Morale is to materiel as three is to one."
-Napoleon

(Maybe in the Russia-Ukraine case, it's more like 7:1)

As a viewer of RT Television from time to time, I'd put it in the same category as the night time programming on MSNBC or Fox News. I don't know about the Russian language programming though.

I don't think this is existential for Putin. He's popular in Russia, and would remain so if, say, there were a settlement along the current lines of control.

Russia's paying big signing bonuses to new recruits, and good salaries. And veterans get certain privileges when they return home. So not all young men are avoiding service. As our friend ChatGPT says, "Yes, many Russian men are volunteering to fight in Ukraine, primarily driven by substantial financial incentives and socio-economic factors."

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

The Norrh Koreans died and or defected. Even Kim knows sending his men is just so they can die.

Putin’s draft is just mainly talk not qualified fighting me. Russia is essentially a third world country with nuked and oil (which it’s selling on the cheap).

Please see reply to TC above about fighting men.

Have you been to Russia? It's not third world any more than New Mexico's third world. Or at least Moscow's not. I might have contrasted with Louisiana instead except I haven't been there in 30 years.

Russia's not selling oil on the cheap at present. The sanctions don't allow its oil to be sold for less than $60, but given current price weakness, the price would be below $60 regardless.

And yes, it has nukes, the largest nuclear armory in the world, capable of destroying humanity several times over.

[Jacky S]

Five years ago Putin was reportedly dying of cancer. That didn’t work out.

Maybe the only real solution to ending the slaughter is for someone to put a bullet into the back of Putin’s head.

[1blackman1]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Please see reply to TC above about fighting men.

Have you been to Russia? It's not third world any more than New Mexico's third world. Or at least Moscow's not. I might have contrasted with Louisiana instead except I haven't been there in 30 years.

Russia's not selling oil on the cheap at present. The sanctions don't allow its oil to be sold for less than $60, but given current price weakness, the price would be below $60 regardless.

And yes, it has nukes, the largest nuclear armory in the world, capable of destroying humanity several times over.

No I haven’t been to Russia but that doesn’t mean it’s any less a third world country. Yes, it’s got a few large metropolitan cities but overall its economy is third world. Whether they are selling oil illegally isn’t really up for debate as they skirt sanctions with what’s been referred to as black ships. In any event, Russia has already lost the war and can’t complete its initial goals. It’s pretty much secured the previously disputed territory and crimea, but a prolonged war has diminished their military to a point that they can’t continue their war effort.

Ukraine can continue to kill and harass Russian troops and destroy their equipment in ways russia can’t retaliate against Ukraine. Mainly because production of equipment being used in Ukraine is in Europe and the US so until it lands in Ukraine it’s safe and immediately put to service. That’s a huge advantage to Ukraine, which is why Russia insists that Ukraine stop receiving arms during any ceasefire. Russia simply cannot keep up with production vs losses.

And Tiny, since you seem to believe Putin isn’t targeting civilians, his retaliation for destroying parts of his Air Force and no civilian deaths was - you guessed it - attack civilian centers. But that’s no surprise to MOST of us.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Jacky S

Five years ago Putin was reportedly dying of cancer. That didn’t work out.

Maybe the only real solution to ending the slaughter is for someone to put a bullet into the back of Putin’s head.

Only Putin?

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Jacky S

Maybe the only real solution to ending the slaughter is for someone to put a bullet into the back of Putin’s head.

Since Putin has apparently purged Moscow of practically every conceivable security threat, that may not be very likely at this time. But I suspect his risk of meeting such a fate is a helluva lot higher than yours or mine!

Nonetheless, I'm not sure how good his chances are of dying peacefully in his sleep 20 years from now after a quiet, pleasant retirement during which he's revered as a great leader of Mother Russia.

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

No I haven’t been to Russia but that doesn’t mean it’s any less a third world country. Yes, it’s got a few large metropolitan cities but overall its economy is third world.

With regards to the question of whether Russia should be viewed as a "third-world country," I'd be inclined to give something of a bifurcated answer. True, Moscow and a few other cities exude modernity and technological wonderfulness -- but many of the provincial areas that are heavily populated with non-Slavic ethnic groups suffer from painful levels of alcoholism, poverty, and despair.

Those poorer areas, largely in the North Caucasus and Siberia, are the regions from which a disproportionate number of military draftees are swept up. Additionally, young men from these poverty-stricken areas are the ones more likely to accept financial incentives that have a chance to let their parents, wives, and others close to them escape abject poverty.

On the other hand, young Russian men (mostly from urban areas) who have above-average IQs and a little money in their pockets have been able to avoid Putin's meat-grinder by getting the hell out of the country. (Many are now in Poland, Turkey, Slovakia, and a few other countries.)

These departees are disproportionately the type of people a nation needs to build (or rebuild) an economy -- scientists, mathematicians, engineers, IT professionals, doctors, and skilled technicians of various sorts.

Russia's pre-2022 economy was already shaky enough. Surviving the "brain drain" it's suffering now is going to be quite a challenge.

If a USA-UKR "mineral deal" gets into full swing within the next few years, I think the average Ukrainian's standard of living could very possibly become substantially better than that experienced by the typical Russian.

[Jacky S]

Who else did you have in mind?

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Jacky S

Who else did you have in mind?

Gotcha!

Your hit list, bud.

Hahahahahahahagsah

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

No I haven’t been to Russia but that doesn’t mean it’s any less a third world country. Yes, it’s got a few large metropolitan cities but overall its economy is third world. Whether they are selling oil illegally isn’t really up for debate as they skirt sanctions with what’s been referred to as black ships. In any event, Russia has already lost the war and can’t complete its initial goals. It’s pretty much secured the previously disputed territory and crimea, but a prolonged war has diminished their military to a point that they can’t continue their war effort.

Ukraine can continue to kill and harass Russian troops and destroy their equipment in ways russia can’t retaliate against Ukraine. Mainly because production of equipment being used in Ukraine is in Europe and the US so until it lands in Ukraine it’s safe and immediately put to service. That’s a huge advantage to Ukraine, which is why Russia insists that Ukraine stop receiving arms during any ceasefire. Russia simply cannot keep up with production vs losses.

And Tiny, since you seem to believe Putin isn’t targeting civilians, his retaliation for destroying parts of his Air Force and no civilian deaths was - you guessed it - attack civilian centers. But that’s no surprise to MOST of us.

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Since Putin has apparently purged Moscow of practically every conceivable security threat, that may not be very likely at this time. But I suspect his risk of meeting such a fate is a helluva lot higher than yours or mine!

Nonetheless, I'm not sure how good his chances are of dying peacefully in his sleep 20 years from now after a quiet, pleasant retirement during which he's revered as a great leader of Mother Russia.

With regards to the question of whether Russia should be viewed as a "third-world country," I'd be inclined to give something of a bifurcated answer. True, Moscow and a few other cities exude modernity and technological wonderfulness -- but many of the provincial areas that are heavily populated with non-Slavic ethnic groups suffer from painful levels of alcoholism, poverty, and despair.

Those poorer areas, largely in the North Caucasus and Siberia, are the regions from which a disproportionate number of military draftees are swept up. Additionally, young men from these poverty-stricken areas are the ones more likely to accept financial incentives that have a chance to let their parents, wives, and others close to them escape abject poverty.

On the other hand, young Russian men (mostly from urban areas) who have above-average IQs and a little money in their pockets have been able to avoid Putin's meat-grinder by getting the hell out of the country. (Many are now in Poland, Turkey, Slovakia, and a few other countries.)

These departees are disproportionately the type of people a nation needs to build (or rebuild) an economy -- scientists, mathematicians, engineers, IT professionals, doctors, and skilled technicians of various sorts.

Russia's pre-2022 economy was already shaky enough. Surviving the "brain drain" it's suffering now is going to be quite a challenge.

If a USA-UKR "mineral deal" gets into full swing within the next few years, I think the average Ukrainian's standard of living could very possibly become substantially better than that experienced by the typical Russian.

I'm on the other side from Texas Contrarian and Blackman! Well if the topic were our economy or the law I'd be be getting my ass kicked. Thankfully it's not.

Russia's GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power is $49,400 according to the IMF, more than Greece's and not far off Japan's. Ukraine's is $21,000.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...PP)_per_capita

As to Moscow being more prosperous than the country as a whole, that's true, just as New York City and Washington D.C. are more prosperous than the USA as a whole. According to the World Bank, Russia's Gini coefficient was 35 in 2021. The USA's was 41. In other words, income inequality is probably greater in the USA, so presumably the contrast between richer and poorer regions would be greater here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ome_inequality

Please note in the Gini coefficient table that the World Bank classifies Russia as a "high income" country, like the USA.

I don't see Ukraine's standard of living becoming greater than Russia's, with one caveat. If Ukraine becomes a member of the EU, then someday it might.

Russia can win this war anytime it wants by trotting out the nukes. And I suspect it could as well if it started carpet bombing civilians with conventional weapons. Blackman, until we wake up some morning and read about hundreds or thousands of civilians dying that day in Ukraine, I'm not buying that Putin's targeting civilians. How many Ukrainian civilians died in Russia's retaliation last night for the drone attacks on it's airbases that you referred to? I think it was four. See the original post for more about civilian deaths.

According to the War on Terror project, 4.5 million have died directly or indirectly as a result of post 9/11 wars. And for what? George W. Bush kicked that off in Iraq on account of imaginary weapons of mass destruction. Putin's concerns about the steady eastward march of NATO had more substance, in many Russian's minds at last.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-b...-leaders-early

[1blackman1]

We can agree to disagree as to Russia's economic standing. But for the sake of not getting caught up in pedantic nonsense, let's say Russia is a second world nation, how about that.

Sure, Russia could nuke its neighbor and would suffer greatly for it; hence, ensuring they would lose the war. Even TACO would have to do something were that the case and due to proximity, Europe would as well. Russia cannot take that step, no matter the saber rattling, because that would lead to the end of Russia as a country and likely several others. Your fear of the use of nuclear arms is surprising considering we are about the same age and both well know that no country is going to use a nuclear weapon (now some terrorist might get hold to a small one or a dirty bomb but that isn't the same thing). Every leader around world, even the crazy ones in North Korea and Iran, know that the use of a nuclear bomb gets you nothing but destroyed but the threat of use gets you plenty, which is why they and Russia keep the threat there.

Yes, Russia could start a carpet bombing campaign or even using fuel air bombs if they intended to try to wipe Ukraine out. But again, what would be the repercussions of that? US or European intervention most likely and NATO establishing air superiority and no fly zones over Ukraine. Russia is stuck between a rock and hard place since they can ill afford to engage NATO in Ukraine. They had one opportunity to win the war, the early months, but afterwards, they have lost as the real military options for them get more limited.

As usual, there are things I know you know better than and cannot possibly believe irrespective of the things you type. I will leave it at that.

[Jacky S]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

We can agree to disagree as to Russia's economic standing. But for the sake of not getting caught up in pedantic nonsense, let's say Russia is a second world nation, how about that.

Sure, Russia could nuke its neighbor and would suffer greatly for it; hence, ensuring they would lose the war. Even TACO would have to do something were that the case and due to proximity, Europe would as well. Russia cannot take that step, no matter the saber rattling, because that would lead to the end of Russia as a country and likely several others. Your fear of the use of nuclear arms is surprising considering we are about the same age and both well know that no country is going to use a nuclear weapon (now some terrorist might get hold to a small one or a dirty bomb but that isn't the same thing). Every leader around world, even the crazy ones in North Korea and Iran, know that the use of a nuclear bomb gets you nothing but destroyed but the threat of use gets you plenty, which is why they and Russia keep the threat there.

Yes, Russia could start a carpet bombing campaign or even using fuel air bombs if they intended to try to wipe Ukraine out. But again, what would be the repercussions of that? US or European intervention most likely and NATO establishing air superiority and no fly zones over Ukraine. Russia is stuck between a rock and hard place since they can ill afford to engage NATO in Ukraine. They had one opportunity to win the war, the early months, but afterwards, they have lost as the real military options for them get more limited.

As usual, there are things I know you know better than and cannot possibly believe irrespective of the things you type. I will leave it at that.

How close do you think Russia is to doing the same thing in Ukraine that the now defunct Soviet Union did in Afghanistan and what we did in Vietnam, that being, simply packing up the shit and getting out?

[1blackman1]

Not close, not yet. Their real issue is that to even keep control of the area they claimed they keep expending resources. Eventually the cost will exceed the desire. The strikes at home are a game changer. State TV cannot keep the narrative of everything being all good on the western front.

As I stated before, their ability to produce equipment doesn’t outweigh their loss of equipment, while Ukraine doesn’t have to produce tanks or planes as they lose them. We and Europe do that for them - when we actually deliver the equipment instead of playing politics with it.

Russia has no off ramp - which was why Trump tried to force Ukraine to cave to them. Which only emboldened Putin. That was a tactical error. Loading up Ukraine with more equipment faster will force Russia to fight to hold area instead of looking to expand. It would neutralize any perceived advantage Russia could have.