Reply to VitaMan and Lusty Lad, in new thread to avoid going off topic, about deaths in Ukraine and the Ukrainian war in general

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Zelenskyy is not interested in keeping the conflict going.....so that 5,000 Ukrainians a day can be killed.


Putin is in control in Russia....many of his competitors dead under mysterious circumstances.

The total number of Ukrainian civilian deaths counted by the UN's OHCHR from February 24, 2022 to April 30, 2025 was 13,134. Admittedly the real number is higher. Still, compare to around 100,000 who died in the Tokyo Firebombing on March 10, 1945. Or the 75,000 who died instantly at Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Around 35,000 died in Hamburg on July 27 and 28, 1943, and 30,000 in Dresden during February 13 to 15, 1945. And at least 50,000 civilians have died in Gaza since October, 2023.

Despite what the press would have you believe, Russia isn't going out of its way to kill civilians in Ukraine.

Originally Posted by lustylad

Where did your 5,000 Ukrainians a day killed number come from?

I call bullshit.

Here's what the Economist reported less than 2 months ago:

"Ukrainian officials claim their troops are now killing between seven and ten Russians for every soldier they lose. So although Ukraine is still heavily outnumbered, the imbalance in manpower matters less than it did."

https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...fence-industry

The claim that Ukraine kills 7 to 10 Russians for every soldier it loses isn't credible. Yeah, Russians are dying in larger numbers than Ukrainians, but it's not that lopsided.

Russia's not going to lose this war. It's pulled out all stops to support the war effort. It's now gaining territory again in eastern Ukraine. Based on NYT reporting about intercepted military communications, Russia's willing to use tactical nuclear weapons if the Ukrainians seriously threaten Crimea.

I don't know what the solution is. There may be none. But, again, I at least give Trump credit for trying to get the two sides to negotiate a peace. That's better than Biden, who never picked up the phone to call President Putin over a three year period.

[lustylad]

Tiny - I have a lot to say, but I would prefer to wait until VM provides a source for his claim that the war is currently killing 5,000 Ukrainians a day.

[VitaMan]

I am just following Trump's examples of providing figures.


You can tell us what the exact number per day is, if you can. You seem quite interested in it. Iwold gusee some days it is more, and some days it is less.


Zelenskyy prolonging the conflict to make money is a ridiculous idea.....that is why I made the Trump like response.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

I am just following Trump's examples of providing figures.


You can tell us what the exact number per day is, if you can. You seem quite interested in it. Iwold (sic) gusee (sic) some days it is more, and some days it is less.


Zelenskyy prolonging the conflict to make money is a ridiculous idea.....that is why I made the Trump like response.

So you like to make up numbers, and when you get called out on them, you blame trump? Thanks for 'fessing up.

Yeah, I'm interested in the real numbers. So is Tiny. So is the Economist. So are most observers. You should be, too, instead of just making things up.

It's important to separate deaths v. casualties. The latter includes wounded. In most wars, roughly 3 combatants are wounded for every one soldier killed.

Let's do the math, however grim. If Ukraine WAS losing 5,000 a day, that's equivalent to over 1.8 million people a year. Since the war started, it would add up to almost 6 million. The country's entire population is estimated at 39 million, so it would mean 15% of Ukrainians (and a much higher % of adult males) have been slaughtered. Now you see why I questioned your number.

I agree with your last statement. It's absurd to think Zelenskyy is prolonging the conflict to make money. The war has distorted their economy, just as it has Russia's. They're churning out drones instead of harvesting wheat or exploiting rare-earth mineral deposits. They would be making a lot more money if the war ended.

[1blackman1]

Trump claims 400,000 Ukrainians have been killed. About 350 a day.

Whether Putin's Russians are going out of their way to kill civilians, I suppose there's a lot of soldiers in places like Children's Hospitals and schools. It's possible that dropping bombs in civilian areas will kill soldiers as well. Though it's more likely civilians will be killed when bombs are being dropped on the city center.

Why someone keeps claiming that Russia won't lose the war befuddled me to no end. Likely because that person was never a soldier, sailor, airman or marine. Russia has already lost the war. They can prolong and keep fighting it but their initial goal of taking Ukraine is lost. Their other objectives of destroying Ukraine's sovereignty has been lost. The reality at this point is that Russia will be able to hold some 20% of the country by expending more resources than it's worth.

Now that said, could Russia take Ukraine, I don't know. I don't believe so. I believe they lack the manpower and if Ukraine remains well equipped as they have for the past 2 years or so, Russian would not be able to sustain the war effort (particularly if Ukraine pulls off another attack like the most recent ones). Russia is losing equipment that's near impossible to replace along with executing the war.

[Tiny]

I agree with part of your post Blackman. There aren't going to be any winners in this except for the arms manufacturers. I however don't see equipment or manpower shortages affecting Russia as much as they will Ukraine.

Welcome back and please stay out of trouble. While you can be obnoxious as hell from time to time, this place is more interesting when you're around.

[1blackman1]

Russia has to repair and replace equipment like artillery and tanks. Ukraine is being provided it from the US and Europe, along with some limited self production. Russia is losing on that front.

As for manpower, Russia is sending its men into a grinder. Taking an area has losss of about 3 to 1, controlling a foreign area can teach 2 to 1 losses. Also Russia has a frontline morale problem as they are war weary which will worsen as they send more and more untrained soldiers.

[Jacky S]

https://www.russiamatters.org/news/r...rd-feb-26-2025

According to this, a strikingly small number of civilians have been killed.

Soldiers? A different story.

[1blackman1]

12,000 isn't WW2 or Gaza-like civilian casualties but its not nothing. Regardless, the Russians continue to attack non-military targets in city centers.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Jacky S

https://www.russiamatters.org/news/r...rd-feb-26-2025

According to this, a strikingly small number of civilians have been killed.

Soldiers? A different story.

Russiamatters.org?

Makes sense.

[Texas Contrarian]

When I was out at dinner in Dallas with a few friends last week, this subject came up for discussion.

Actually, the thrust of the conversation centered around likely timelines and outcomes, and what the imagined endgame might look like for both Russia and Ukraine. Nonetheless, I was very curious about Ukrainian casualty rates, so I asked a couple of super-know-it-all friends to whom I ask all sorts of questions on a daily basis. (Well, OK. They are LLMs, actually!)

Here's ChatGPT:

As of June 3, 2025, precise daily casualty figures for Ukrainian forces in the ongoing war with Russia are not publicly disclosed. However, available data provides insight into the overall scale of losses:

Confirmed Deaths: The UALosses project, which documents fatalities by name, has confirmed the deaths of 70,935 Ukrainian soldiers as of May 21, 2025.

Presidential Statement: In February 2025, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that over 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and approximately 380,000 wounded since the start of the full-scale invasion.

While these figures offer a cumulative perspective, they do not provide a clear picture of current daily losses. Historically, during intense periods of combat in 2022, Ukrainian officials reported daily fatalities ranging from 100 to 500 soldiers. However, without recent official disclosures, it's challenging to ascertain current daily casualty rates.

It's important to note that casualty figures can vary significantly based on the intensity and location of military operations. The lack of up-to-date, detailed reporting makes it difficult to provide an accurate current daily casualty count for Ukrainian forces.

And here's Perplexity:

Average Daily Ukrainian Military Casualties in the Russia-Ukraine War

Summary of Estimates

Recent analyses by Western think tanks and media, referencing both Western intelligence and Ukrainian statements, estimate that Ukraine has suffered approximately 400,000 military casualties (killed and wounded) since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Of these, between 60,000 and 100,000 are estimated to have been killed, with the remainder wounded.

Calculating the Daily Average

The war has lasted from February 24, 2022, to early June 2025, or about 1,200 days.

Using the figure of 400,000 total Ukrainian military casualties over this period:

Average daily casualties=1,200/400,000≈333 per day

This figure includes both killed and wounded.

Breakdown and Context

Killed: Estimates for Ukrainian soldiers killed range from 60,000 to 100,000. Using the midpoint (80,000 killed over 1,200 days), the average is about 67 killed per day.

Wounded: With roughly 320,000–340,000 wounded (using the 400,000 total minus killed), this averages about 267–283 wounded per day.

Recent Trends

At the height of fighting in May–June 2022, Ukrainian officials reported 100–200 killed and 500–800 wounded per day, with some estimates as high as 200–500 killed daily during the most intense battles.

By late 2024 and into 2025, the pace of casualties has remained high but fluctuates with the intensity of fighting and Russian offensives15.

In early 2025, there are no indications that the casualty rate has dropped significantly, given the ongoing attritional nature of the conflict.

Comparison with Russian Casualties

Russian forces are currently suffering higher daily casualties, with reports of 1,000–1,200 Russian soldiers killed or wounded per day in 2024–2025. Ukrainian rates are somewhat lower but still substantial.

Table: Estimated Ukrainian Military Casualties (Feb 2022–June 2025)
Category Estimated Total Daily Average (approx.)
Killed 60,000–100,000
Wounded 300,000–340,000
Total ~400,000 ~333
Key Points

Average daily Ukrainian military casualties (killed and wounded) are currently estimated at approximately 300–350 per day over the course of the war.

The rate fluctuates depending on the intensity of fighting, with higher rates during major offensives.

Official Ukrainian data is limited, and estimates rely on a synthesis of Western intelligence, think tanks, and statements by Ukrainian officials.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

When I was out at dinner in Dallas with a few friends last week, this subject came up for discussion.

Actually, the thrust of the conversation centered around likely timelines and outcomes, and what the imagined endgame might look like for both Russia and Ukraine.

How does the Dallas Dinner Brain Trust think this may play out TC? Did they speculate on how much longer it may last?

[txdot-guy]

My question is how does the success of Operation Spider’s Web affect the outcome of the conflict? What kind of impact will this have on European and American leadership? Will it convince the Russians to come to the negotiating table?

Senator Graham has called for a new sanctions bill to target Russia. Is the timing of this coincidental or a reaction to the operation?
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/grah...y?id=122415816

What I find funny is when Trump and Vance ambushed Zelensky in the white house and told him he didn’t have the cards he had Operation Spider’s Web in the works. Kind of makes American leadership look like idiots.

A good write up is here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-uk...metric-warfare

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

How does the Dallas Dinner Brain Trust think this may play out TC? Did they speculate on how much longer it may last?

LOL ... Although I don't think any DDBT members have much in the way of foreign policy expertise, there did seem to be agreement on a few points.

There may not be much chance of a settlement in the near future, since Putin has backed himself into a corner and doesn't have a smooth, face-saving exit ramp. He can't afford to be seen by a majority of Russians to have appeared to "lose" this war, however they may define losing. If looked at similarly to the way many other wars have been viewed, Russia has already lost, since it will never control the entirety of Ukraine. Therefore, Vladimir the Great will have to "define success down," essentially claiming that seizure and control of approximately 20% of Ukraine eliminates the "US-NATO threat"and ensures Russia's long-term security.

According to many reports, Russian TV and other "news" sources serve nothing more than such ridiculously biased propaganda that it would be hard for Americans, if they saw it, to believe that anyone in the world would buy a single word of the bullshit typically purveyed.

So any "victory" will probably look to outside observers like one of the most pyrrhic in history.

This is, of course, existential for Putin. Failure means the loss of control -- or indeed, his very life. The outcome for various Russian czars and dictators who have done poorly in wars over the last few centuries is rarely a happy one.

It's existential for any Ukrainian leader as well, since its citizens will have long memories of the unspeakable levels of cruelty visited upon civilians. And every Ukrainian has heard of the horrors of the Holodomor from parents and grandparents over the years. In my view, this accounts for the determination of Ukrainians to resist at all costs. Young Russian men, by contrast, want no part of any of this shit and get the hell out of there whenever they feel they can do so without being imprisoned in a hellhole or shot on the spot.

"Morale is to materiel as three is to one."
-Napoleon

(Maybe in the Russia-Ukraine case, it's more like 7:1)

[txdot-guy]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

It's existential for any Ukrainian leader as well, since its citizens will have long memories of the unspeakable levels of cruelty visited upon civilians. And every Ukrainian has heard of the horrors of the Holodomor from parents and grandparents over the years. In my view, this accounts for the determination of Ukrainians to resist at all costs. Young Russian men, by contrast, want no part of any of this shit and get the hell out of there whenever they feel they can do so without being imprisoned in a hellhole or shot on the spot.

"Morale is to materiel as three is to one."
-Napoleon

(Maybe in the Russia-Ukraine case, it's more like 7:1)

Well said.